Liffe Sugar (white)

[DaveT]

Bgold - not sure whether it is fundamentally driven or not.

There have been rains delaying Brazilian harvest over the last week - but latest forecasts say dry conditions ahead.

USDA update their supply/demand etc tomorrow. COT report last week showed fund/spec longs greatly trimmed. But that was last week....

Note however, that London LIFFE AUG 04 has stalled and sold off towards the close. There has been persisant selling of the White-over-Raw premium of late.

I am long-term bullsih, but agree with your earlier comments that it is a difficult market to trade.

 

[DaveT]

Sugar is really motoring at last.

Weekly charts look good. Long-term target 970. (see previous)

 

[DaveT]

HUGE KEY REVERSAL amid late sell-off in JULY 04 SUGAR #11.

Another period of consolidation would appear to be on the cards.

 

[bgold]

Oct Sugar: continued rally to 900 or bloody retracement?

Interesting times in sugar:

1. One school of thought expects imminent correction as targets have been reached, funds have been piling in etc. See attached chart.
and
2. Other analysts read recent price action as a breakout (gap wasn't filled in past 2 days) targetting 900. I read advice to buy at the open risking to 797.

Sucden analysts write:
"OI continues to increase and Funds continue to add to an already long position, volume is large but the gainsare not yet that great on a daily basis. Front spreads continue to trade at discounts, thus not suggesting a shortage of supply nearby. It is not a market for the fainthearted as the temptation to sell gtows and if one is already short one needs deep pockets. The correction will come, and it may be sudden. When? That is the difficult question."

Similar to the corrections earlier this year it could once again become a bloody slide but when?

I think I will raise my stop to 797? Problem is that I suspect if hit it prices will gap down.
Any views, observations and comments?

 

[bgold]

Sugar keeps running. I see that London prices have hit new highs. Sugar on the way to $9.00?

 

[minx]

Ok, after the harsh pullback from our recent highs does it look like LIFFE Sugar is heading higher? Bounce thru trendline but close above it, which coincides with a bounce off the 50%Fib level, MACD and CCI are rising. Similar to what heppened on the previous run-up.
Only danger here is OI is falling rapidly so perhaps best to use the next calendar contract.
The next month V, looks even better with a bounce directly off the trend line coupled with the bounce from 50%Fib. The previous run-up tried to touch the 38% twice b4 giving up and heading skyward. Today will close above 25% level and so am considering a buy.

 

[bgold]

Ok, after the harsh pullback from our recent highs does it look like LIFFE Sugar is heading higher? Bounce thru trendline but close above it, which coincides with a bounce off the 50%Fib level, MACD and CCI are rising. Similar to what heppened on the previous run-up.
Only danger here is OI is falling rapidly so perhaps best to use the next calendar contract.
The next month V, looks even better with a bounce directly off the trend line coupled with the bounce from 50%Fib. The previous run-up tried to touch the 38% twice b4 giving up and heading skyward. Today will close above 25% level and so am considering a buy.

Sugar made it to FT backpage with a dedicated article claiming that bullishness i sugar is due to:
1. Change in EU subsidies which could result in less exports for worldmarket,
2. Something abouyt deficits in India and possibly China, as result less supply with demand booming. Chinese coke market al ready larger than Japan, etc, etc.

Now, I am always getting suspicious when "mainstream media" jumps on bandwagon. except, for mania's like dotcom, they usually get it wromng and it points to tops nearby. At least in time. in terms of price target is stil nearer to 900. As for OI, what bothers me is the incresing short positions by commercials.
Please not that I have been very wrong on sugar in recent months! So,I am talking my book namely being flat

 

[minx]

Please not that I have been very wrong on sugar in recent months! So,I am talking my book namely being flat

hehe, was only thinking about a 1-2 week hold anyway, a quick smash 'n grab

 

[bgold]

DJ Global Sugar Price Could Reach 15-16c/Lb In 2005 -Analyst

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--World raw sugar futures on the New York Board of
Trade could hit 15-16 U.S. cents a pound in 2005, well up from Monday's close
for the prompt March contract of 8.89 cents/lb, brokerage Citigroup Smith
Barney has forecast.

The brokerage, in an analysis dated Monday, used the sugar price forecast
to project a sharp share price gain for CSR Ltd. (CSR.AU), an Australian
building products and sugar concern.

Nybot sugar appears to be establishing a primary positive cycle with the 15-
16 cents area an interim target, well up for the prompt contract and up from
a recent low in May of around 7.00 cents/lb, Citigroup Smith Barney said.

The emerging rally should be the first significant positive phase for the
global price since 1985-90, it said.

"Sugar looks (set to be) one of the best agriculture commodities going
forward and has developed a positive performance profit versus the (Commodity
Research Bureau index)," it said.

Given the robust performance of this index, which recently moved to new
highs, the positive sugar profile should see investor interest steadily
increasing next year, it said.

Citigroup Smith Barney said the sugar price and the share price of CSR have
a reasonable correlation.

A strong building products cycle has driven the CSR share price to date,
with CSR closing at A$2.57, down 11 cents, it said.

"Sugar activity should increasingly (have) a beneficial impact (on the) CSR
share price" in calendar 2005, possibly hitting A$3.25, it said.

 

[sbrawool]

Hi Buddies
can some one share the LIFFE and NYBOT/ICE raw / white sugar trade activity data??? that way it would be nmuch better to to d the computations!