I'm with Hoggums. You are probably only aware of 1% of the variables. So are on every occasion making a trading decision, an objective trading decision based on 99% unknowns.
I'm with Hoggums. You are probably only aware of 1% of the variables. So are on every occasion making a trading decision, an objective trading decision based on 99% unknowns.
I think the 1% is not quite right but understand what you are saying. I think I may have used the wrong word as in variables in the system, maybe it is not so much understanding all the variables but as many tools and ways that allow you to read the market flow?
For example, you use an indicator, maybe two, does not matter which ones, within your trading that at a specific point you use for entry/exit etc. What I am saying that you can do is put in the screen time and energy that allows you not just to enter at your indicator specific trigger points but you understand the indicator to such a level that it is not about just meeting some specific points but tells you so much continually about the way the market is behaving at any given moment? Even when the indicator is not hitting your specific trigger points you understand what the indicator is telling you about the market?
This is just an example of how when trading you can get into the zone and almost feel part of the market and feel like a conductor over an orchestra? and not just waiting for specific targets? and that sort of approach cannot be put into a specific trading system which is my point to the thread? I know it is a different approach to a lot of trading and no disrespect whatsoever to other approaches that no doubt are successful.
For example, you use an indicator, maybe two, does not matter which ones, within your trading that at a specific point you use for entry/exit etc. What I am saying that you can do is put in the screen time and energy that allows you not just to enter at your indicator specific trigger points but you understand the indicator to such a level that it is not about just meeting some specific points but tells you so much continually about the way the market is behaving at any given moment? Even when the indicator is not hitting your specific trigger points you understand what the indicator is telling you about the market?
This is just an example of how when trading you can get into the zone and almost feel part of the market and feel like a conductor over an orchestra? and not just waiting for specific targets? and that sort of approach cannot be put into a specific trading system which is my point to the thread? I know it is a different approach to a lot of trading and no disrespect whatsoever to other approaches that no doubt are successful.
Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
I am not a doctor or an expert on stress but surely the whole point of stress is to increase the human performance when pressure is put on? Increase of adrenalin, focus etc
No doubt the big boys spend millions using the top mathamaticians in the world to get some decent automated systems etc that do work, but I am coming from the sole trader on his own here and for him to ever get close to an automated system by himself see it as a pipe dream? Maybe wrong here and maybe some individually manufacturered systems out there but really how good?
I am not a doctor or an expert on stress but surely the whole point of stress is to increase the human performance when pressure is put on? Increase of adrenalin, focus etc
No doubt the big boys spend millions using the top mathamaticians in the world to get some decent automated systems etc that do work, but I am coming from the sole trader on his own here and for him to ever get close to an automated system by himself see it as a pipe dream? Maybe wrong here and maybe some individually manufacturered systems out there but really how good?
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new_trader
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Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
What?? This is your opinion only and cannot possibly have any scientific basis to it. Would you step on an aeroplane knowing that the pilot is programmed to make the worst decision when under stress?
Have you ever written a software program yourself? Do you have any idea of how many lines of code it can sometimes take just to test a very simple condition? If you did, you would realise what an enormous task it would be to program what humans take for granted.
This is the process of learning. There are emotions in automated strategies as well, such as when the system is facing a significant drawdown.
What?? This is your opinion only and cannot possibly have any scientific basis to it. Would you step on an aeroplane knowing that the pilot is programmed to make the worst decision when under stress?
Have you ever written a software program yourself? Do you have any idea of how many lines of code it can sometimes take just to test a very simple condition? If you did, you would realise what an enormous task it would be to program what humans take for granted.
This is the process of learning. There are emotions in automated strategies as well, such as when the system is facing a significant drawdown.
Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
100% agree with new trader comments
100% agree with new trader comments
new_trader
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Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
I am not an expert on stress either, however I would say that most people suffer stress when they find themselves in an unfamiliar situation and don't know how to cope. New traders suffer stress because of this, they are experiencing their first loss, or sudden market volatility, or any number of market events for the first time. The more experience and familiar you become with the market, the less stressful it becomes.
I am not an expert on stress either, however I would say that most people suffer stress when they find themselves in an unfamiliar situation and don't know how to cope. New traders suffer stress because of this, they are experiencing their first loss, or sudden market volatility, or any number of market events for the first time. The more experience and familiar you become with the market, the less stressful it becomes.
Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
Hi New Trader,
There are many many papers written on why humans fail when put under stress. The most pure example i can think of is walking a plank. If it is on ground level you can walk it every time. If that very same plank is 100m up the result is very different.
Yes, I am fully aware of the coding complexities of what you think are very straightforward rules which are somehow very tricky when trying to put into trading logic.
I have no doubt that when your 'system' is undergoing a drawdown YOU suffer emotions but your trading however does not (until you intercept it).
Hi New Trader,
There are many many papers written on why humans fail when put under stress. The most pure example i can think of is walking a plank. If it is on ground level you can walk it every time. If that very same plank is 100m up the result is very different.
Yes, I am fully aware of the coding complexities of what you think are very straightforward rules which are somehow very tricky when trying to put into trading logic.
I have no doubt that when your 'system' is undergoing a drawdown YOU suffer emotions but your trading however does not (until you intercept it).
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new_trader
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Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
I agree that stress may have a negative affect on a person and as I said it is generally due to an inability to cope with a new and unfamiliar situation and most likely due to inexperience. But to conclude from this that we have an innate tendency to make the worst decision under stress is going a step too far.
Naturally a person who is afraid of heights would be more stressed (and perhaps always stressed) about the idea of walking the plank at 100m than someone else who is doing it for the first time. However, if that person manages to walk the plank I am certain they would not be anywhere near as stressed the second time they had to do it or the third time and each time would actually get easier.
Your suggestion implies that they will always fall off the plank because under stress they are incapable of coherent, rational thought and would make the worst decision possible. I think the most terrified and most stressed person would avoid walking on the plank altogether which would make it the best decision possible under stress!
There have been studies which show that people who are afraid of flying are at the peak of their anxiety just as they board an aeroplane but the longer they are kept in the situation (on the aeroplane and flying) the more their anxiety decreases. This study supports my assertion that a trader will become less stressed with each trade and as their knowledge and experience of the market grows.
Ok, but according to you, under the stress of the drawdown they will make the worst decision possible and intercept it, right? I know, I've been there and there is no way, no how, no why anyone can say that automated trading is stress free. That is fantasy.
I agree that stress may have a negative affect on a person and as I said it is generally due to an inability to cope with a new and unfamiliar situation and most likely due to inexperience. But to conclude from this that we have an innate tendency to make the worst decision under stress is going a step too far.
Naturally a person who is afraid of heights would be more stressed (and perhaps always stressed) about the idea of walking the plank at 100m than someone else who is doing it for the first time. However, if that person manages to walk the plank I am certain they would not be anywhere near as stressed the second time they had to do it or the third time and each time would actually get easier.
Your suggestion implies that they will always fall off the plank because under stress they are incapable of coherent, rational thought and would make the worst decision possible. I think the most terrified and most stressed person would avoid walking on the plank altogether which would make it the best decision possible under stress!
There have been studies which show that people who are afraid of flying are at the peak of their anxiety just as they board an aeroplane but the longer they are kept in the situation (on the aeroplane and flying) the more their anxiety decreases. This study supports my assertion that a trader will become less stressed with each trade and as their knowledge and experience of the market grows.
Ok, but according to you, under the stress of the drawdown they will make the worst decision possible and intercept it, right? I know, I've been there and there is no way, no how, no why anyone can say that automated trading is stress free. That is fantasy.
CV, care to elaborate?
CalvinLe55
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Systems that are too base onpersonal inputs will not be able to understand what happens in the actual market. The market place is too dynamic for traders to ultize any personal system that is not logical. In the instance only a system that can incorporate physics and mathematics can really predict or forecast the market conditions. The way we invented our technology and machines in theory should be applied towards the market place. This is why W.D Gann is way ahead of his time, and maybe the best trader to ever lived. Nature provides the best answer to all soloutions, because it explains the causes and conditions of the market.
CalvinLe55
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He didn't ever give away his trade secrets, because he devoted much time and money into them. I don't think Apple would come up with a new product, and tell Samsung what they're going to do in advance. Would a company release earnings reports to investors, or leak any secrets out in advance to anyone. What is Gann doing providing a newsletter service, and selling books anyways in the first place. This was a man who already accomplish his trading, so he was a man who treasure knowledge and guarded it. Perhaps he just wanted traders to learn a thing or two, and because he belong in the world of trading for years. He never wrote book until he reach his 40's, so this is to say he have master his trading in his 20's and 30's. I know this is possible for the fact that I have discover a Master Time Factor all unique like Gann.
CalvinLe55
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12/11/2012 Hi - 12/17/2012 Lo, watch out for these dates, and if you like I am into options. I provide my clients will the same infomation, but I let you have this free infomation this time around. I am just like Gann trading and looking to help fellow traders a like. Review this infomation and look back to them, and see if they're the 99.9% exact dates that change on the trend. This means today you would expect the market to decline. Once you know harmonic analysis works, than you'll know that this is natures way. CL
Shakone
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Which market is that then?
15 min tlb
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Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
Bxxocks
If you have a good well defined system , with all variables predefined , it will work consistently.Most here are not capable or knowledgeable enough or experienced to write these types of systems.
Try this trend entrancement strategy , it works for me consistently using a slight variation.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping.html#post2025236
Bxxocks
If you have a good well defined system , with all variables predefined , it will work consistently.Most here are not capable or knowledgeable enough or experienced to write these types of systems.
Try this trend entrancement strategy , it works for me consistently using a slight variation.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping.html#post2025236
NVP
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Re: Is a rigid specific trading system the right answer?
good post......youve nailed the message most people dont get until way down the line .....its a dynamic system and not closed (like programming chess and most sports forecasting)
and always space for some human sixth sence as well........thats what makes a good trader a great one...
N:smart:
good post......youve nailed the message most people dont get until way down the line .....its a dynamic system and not closed (like programming chess and most sports forecasting)
and always space for some human sixth sence as well........thats what makes a good trader a great one...
N:smart:
CalvinLe55
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This is referring to the U.S Indices Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and all NYSE equites listing.
