PhiltheBear
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notouch said:how would I calculate how much to put on the opposite bet? And what if the level moved to 1.2830 and I wanted to cut my losses?
It depends on the odds on offer - nothing more. If you had put, say, £100 on at evens then when the bet moves into profit you should collect £100. However, you are at risk for £100 - your stake. You can only make a profit if you can now get odds of the market moving in the 'wrong' direction that are greater than evens. Suppose the odds of doing that are 1.1 to 1. If you bet £95 then one of 2 things can happen - First, the market moves down, in which case you win 95 x 1.1 = 104.5 on the down bet but lose 100 on the up bet - giving you a 4.50 profit. Or, second, the market stays up, in which case you lose the 95 but win the 100 - giving you a 5 profit.
Neither will give you the 'big' money but you will lock in a profit.
I use this to back and lay the same horse in a horse race when the odds change (most odds decrease in the 1/2 hour before the off but increase as bookmakers try and balance their books just immediately before the off).
Your bet at 1.1 in the example above is the equivalent of laying a bet at 1/1.1 e.g. a shorter price than you took the bet at. If you bet on a result at 3/1 but can lay the same bet at 2/1 then you can always lock in a non-loss situation and by subtle adjustment of stake can guarantee a small profit.