kevinmcm's Blog

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 28th Sept

Nothing to add from FTSE 100, some FTSE 250 stocks to follow for a change.

Long HFD around 290 or less, target is 297
-[29/9] Got a dip under 290 for a long entry, high today was 296.

Short MGCR around 217.5 or higher, target is 211
-[28/9] Went over 220 then dropped off touching 216, sitting around 218 for now.
-[29/9] 213 the low today.

Long MNR around 260.25 or lower, target is 266
-[28/9] Scalp long +1.4, of the two longs this has more upside potential than HFD.

 

[kevinmcm]

More on FTSE & DAX

[29/9] Looks like the US has halted any further downside again. Two short signals both halted this week. Both started off well but until quarterly end is done and dusted it looks like up again.

The call for 27th was drop to 5426, it obviously didnt get that far as it only went to a low of 5442.7. Another sell signal has triggered and like the last call has also thrown up a possible swing high for 29th of 5523. Its in sell mode regardless from around todays close of ~5495. Anything around that area or higher is worth a short. Target is 5418.

-[29/9] High was 5508 and low was 5467

DAX is in the same setup and targets 4913. Entry around todays close (5048) or higher.

-[29/9] High was 5059 and low was 5004

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks fror 29th Sept

Short BAY around 293 or higher. Target 289.

Long CPG around 206, target 215.
-[29/9] Entry was there getting to kust under 210.

Short III around 775 or higher, target 761
-[29/9] Short ave 780.9
-[29/9 News driving it up today, a short around 788 targets 774 now.
-[6/10] Got to a low of 763

Short LII around 994, target 981
-[29/9] Made a low of 985 from 993
-[6/10] Target hit



Miners
======

Gone mad but i'll post as it has shown.

Entries were good and almost made targets. So overdone it that they had to fall soon anyway.

BLT short around 908.5, target 890
-[29/9] Went to 894

RIO short 2346, target 2277
-[29/9] Low of 2282

XTA short 1490, target 1445
-[29/9] Low of 1447

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock pick 30th Sept

Short REX @515 or higher, target is 507

-[30/9] not trading this one today, but it just popped over the 3 day R3 @518.5 which would/is a good entry point for today.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 4th Oct

Not my usual setup for a trade but think that AL. is looking toppy, wouldnd't short unless it made a run to 885 but one to watch.

Short BLND around 945 or higher. Two targets 932 and 922.
-[4/10] Cant get a fix on this one at all so leaving it. Sitting static at top end of todays range, so if anything expecting aa bump higher. The CAM short entry which is 947 for today which is also 3 day R2 level and approx daily R1. I would expect a drop under 947 to move towards 940-943 min. I dont use CAMs but do use pivots as a gauge.
-[4/10] Price moved up as expected, a short entry looks good around 950-953. A close over 945 follows up the sell signal for today. I have short position @949.5

-[5/10] Covered half at 947
-[8/10] I covered the rest at 947.5 then it crumbled.


Short REX around 519 or higher, target is 510.
-[6/10] Reached 509

Short WOS 1240 or higher, target is 1219 then 1207.
-[4/10] Short @1248.4
-[4/10] Covered half @1242.6 and the rest @1238.6
-[6/10] Hit 1168

Went on to make a low of 1225.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 5th Oct

Short BLND around 958, first target is 940
-[6/10] After yesterdays bump up, it has hit the 940 and 932 targets.

Made it to 923, penny short of the target.

Short DGE around 840, target 828
-[7/10] Hit 828

Short WTB around 976-980, target 965
-[5/10] Short @987
-[5/10] Short @1004.5
-[6/10] Covered al @992, -5 and +12.5, stuck in a slow, tight range until bid rumours die off.

Back to tops from 5-7 weeks ago. Its also the upleg of a bullish Gartley variation. There have a been a couple of good patterns lately, LII being another.

As an approx guide I'm looking for a pullback somwhere between 3 day R3 977 and current price 1004.5, around 990/91 within one trading session.

The talking heads seem to be on a mission to start a bid/takeover/merger rumour on every stock in the ftse100 this year. The turn of WTB today.

-[8/10] Didn't get the move I expected. From the recent high 982/984 was as much as I would have bene looking for.

 

[kevinmcm]

DOW and SPX

DOW looks to be closing in on a low around here, previous setup to this one had a follow through next day which saw another 120 points come off. Then it rebounded by the same amount. So although it is a buy signal, tomorrow should be a day to watch until it becomes clearer. Based on the EOD data it would target 10468 within a few days.

SPX has a possible move to as low as 1185 showing up, otherwise its the same seup for DOW, watch and be ready for a quick reversal day. Based on todays data 1216 approx is the target. If it creeps lower towards 1185 then 1211 is the target.

 

[kevinmcm]

Miners again..

From a very overbought to a very oversold state in days.

RIO and XTA for the brave could be the ones that make a bounce.

RIO (2163) could make a run back to 2180-2196

XTA (1354) could head back to 1368-1379

CAM levels are 2187 and 1372.

Watching out of interest. These stock were ramped to the heavens so I wonder how low they will sell off before anyone remembers these are must have stocks or only a week ago.

[6/10] And bounce they did. RIO to around 2190 and XTA to around 1385... and kept on going!

 

[kevinmcm]

DOW and SPX

Well the move to 1185 (just under) showed up after all. As it stands now it should bottom around here for a few days at least. The move lower than 1185 brings down the bounce area, I'm now looking at 1209/10, will do the calcs later.

1209 - 1215.5 look like the bounce targets.

DOW is the same though I doubt a move to high 400s will materialise from this.

10391 - 10432 region for a bounce

 

[kevinmcm]

FTSE ready to go up?

FTSE now looks overdone for now, 5372 or less for a bounce to 5455.

Possible move under todays close is still out there, but like DOW and SPX a short trem at least bottom appears to be likely.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 7th Oct

Plenty of longs showing. All entries are around Thursdays close. Markets are poised for a relief rally or a serious tanking is upon us., but whatever happens extra care needed.

AL. around 850, looking for 856
- made it to 855.5 from under 850
- 10/10 hit target

AUN around 818, target 838
- did things in reverse, jumped to 832 at the start of the day, drifted off to 811and climbed back up finish at 822
- 10/10 lookslike it could dip a little more

BG around 505, target 515
- reached 516 but the entry was slightly above 505

BOC around 1115, target 1133
- entry was above 1115, making a high of 1130

BP around 620, target 643
- entry was there, making a high of 633.65

DXNS around 141.75, target 146
- entry was a little higher making a daily high of 144.5

WOS around 1170, target 1192
- entry was there but only made a high of 1177, still a buy
- 10/10 hit target


Short BAY around 310, looking for 303.5
-[7/10] Short @311.8 and 313.5 where my original sell order was!
-[7/10] Covered and taken profit. I didnt expect a move over 315 today,which didnt help my entry level. 15 min is bottoming so will wait and see if there is a better entry to be had.

This remains a short. I went in again at 516.2, could bump over 318 on Monday before reversing. Raising my target to 307.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 10th Oct

Short BAY above 316.25, I'm short from Friday at 316.2

Haven't done my analysis yet, BAY was one I was watching on Friday and had triggered as a sell for today.

-[12/10] I have been in and out of BAY (6 trades) over the last 3 days and closed the last of my shorts off at 312.8, it has since gone on to hit my target of 307 and less. Originally I was looking at 303 before it bumped over 318 and although it hasnt reached that level it looks like it will soon. Either it has proven to be a good setup for shorting.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 10th Oct

Long LII around 964.5 or less, target 975

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 12th Oct

Short MKS at above 397, target around 390
- entry was good and should go on hit 390

Short AV at above 629, target 623
- entry too high on the day but made target

Long EMG at below 1549, target 1580
- Made it to 1578

MKS/EMG I am cautious of as they moved into the sell/buy zones quickly on sharp moves which implies that they could easily make new high/lows before they counter move.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 13th Oct

Not surprisngly I am starting to see a lot of stocks heading to the lower end of the scale and quite a few reaching a long entry. After hours dip on FTSE could drag things down early tomorrow, I'm in no rush to get in to these stocks.

- FTSE is on the brink of a bigger drop. 5225 area looks like the next area down if a decent break occurs through 5300. FTSE has also triggered a long to around 5320 area. In addition too many stocks reaching oversold on this blast lower. At the moment I dont see a move down to low 5200s over the coming days, I'm looking upon it as a short term bounce due but that could change quickly!

-[13/10]I'm short MKS now at 398.8

So here is what I have -

Long WMH around 550 or less, target 563
-[13/10] Long 546.0
-[15]/10 Closed off all longs @550.6

Long SHP around 644.5 or less, target 662

Long REX under 496, target 503. Has flagged a possible dip to 490.

Long NXT around 1297 or less, target 1323


Tomorrows journal entry will be the last, I have these picks duplicated on my own site and from next week thats where I will post them.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 14th Oct (main list)

Putting up all the flagged stocks as they came out. I knew this would happen after a few sharp down days. Good test of my setup which usually throws up 2/3 trades per day. This main list is probably worth looking at as a learning experience if nothing else, at least half got to the buy zone on sharp 2 day drops as opposed to a cyclical decline. Basically this is the first time I have tested against the current situation of FTSE coming off like this.

Long entries are at close or below. Shown as they were flagged up.

Long AAL 1584, target 1614. Has flagged a swing low of 1533. Support around close level with a ton of fresh air below.

Long AL around 834, target 842, again sitting on a support level around todays close.

Long BARC around 548, target 555

Long BAY around 301, target 306

Long BT around 209, target 213. Possible dip to 204.

Long CNA around 239, target 243

Long CNE around 1716 , target 1779

Long HBOS around 833, target 842

Long HG around 704, target 708

Long IHG around 689, traget 693

Long IMT around 1561, target 1580

Long LII around 843, target 952

Long NGT 514, target 519

Long NXT 1268, target 1291

Long REX 485, target 496

Long RR around 356 , target 364

Long SSE around 989, target 996

Long UU around 623, target 633

Long WMH around 540, target 552

Long WTB around 956, target 976

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks 14th Oct (filtered list)

Two consecutive buy signals. These two are safer plays.

Long REX 485, target 496

Long WMH around 540, target 552
-[14/10] Long again @540.1, wouldn't rule out a dip to around 534 before it gets going again.