kevinmcm's Blog

[kevinmcm]

10/20 day MA signals

Tweaking a buy/sell system based on the 10/20 day MA. As of today I have the following signals on the 20 day MA. These should be held for around 8-10 days. Not sure on BATS/IMT, very strong sector today which may have skewed the signal so not convinced yet.

Interesting results from backtesting over 6 months of data. More backtesting needed to look at success rate over strong up/down trends.



Long - updated for close on 11/02
====
SFW @279.5, close 280.5 High 280.5, low 275
IMT @1132, close 1117 High 1146, low 1104
BATS @788.5, close High 800, low 785

Short
====
OML @93, close 92.5 High 93.75, low 91.75
LLOY @455.75, High 461, low 449
IHG @535.5, close 546 High 561.5, low 532.5
HG @227, High 227, low 222.25
ALLD @438, High 444.5, low 435.75
AAL @1223, High 1242, low 1205


A few from the 10 day MA, ideally hold for around 3-5 days

Short - updated for close on 06/02
====
ANL @568 : close 559.5, low was 546
BAY @291.25 : close 288, low was 286.75
UU @480.5 : close 479.5, low was 477.5


[Edit 12/02]
20 day MA signals are closed.

Improved the entry point slightly for next batch to negate false signals, sometimes they come in too quickly.

 

[kevinmcm]

Short term trades for wc 09/02/04 [5 day MA]

Long : [email protected] to 411.25

Has been as high as 922. I would have closed off in profit today with this one. Best entry would have been around 414 on Fins.

Long : [email protected] to 921.00

Entry anywhere down to 912 + spread. Slow day, possibly too early an entry point but has made it to over 920 from the lows.

10/02 - Spiked to 938. A more realistic price would have been around 925 today. Considered closed at 925.


Ideal entry is below the lower price.

These would be intraday trades.

 

[kevinmcm]

Range trades for 11/02

Revisiting a system I worked on last year, intend to tie it in with the MA system to improve entry points.

Predicted H/L/C values

BAA : 532.25, 524.5, 529.25

Actual - 529.5, 521, 524.25

RBS : 1640.33, 1616.33, 1629.67

Actual - 1637, 1620, 1630

UU : Removed.

 

[kevinmcm]

5 day MA trades

Long : [email protected] to 176.50, entry below lower level if possible

Ave long position was 175.5, closed today 179.8

Short : III @630.00 to 631.00, entry above higher level if possible


Intraday trades again.

[Edit] Error with data, both these trades are wrong. Data had not been updated. 1 day behind.

 

[kevinmcm]

Range trades 12/02

Expected H/L/C

BLT : 459.67, 451.17, 455.8

Taking into account the opening 5.5 point gap today, the revised figs are 462.38, 453.88, 456.94.

Bit strong after the upgrade of a few days back

Actual - 474.25, 461, 473.25

SVT : 714.33, 704.33, 710.17

Actual - 716, 707.5, 714


and for results day ( could be wildy out )

BT : 178, 174.25, 175.75

Same thing with BT, opening gap this morning, revised figs are,
179.38, 175.63, 176.44

Actual - 180.75, 174.25, 174.75

 

[kevinmcm]

5 day MA trade

Long RIO, ideal entry between 1403-1412

Could be difficult getting a decent entry on Thursday as market will open strongly up.

[Edit] Best entry was around 1420 and currently 1447.5 to sell.

Opened at 1424 and HOD @1452

 

[kevinmcm]

Range trade for 13/02

CNA H/L/C

208.75, 202.5, 206.25

Actual - 213.75, 205.5, 213.75


[Edit]

I went short 212.8 late in the day. And closed for a 1 point loss. If FTSE is waek on Monday I dont doubt it could easily be off 5p very quickly.


Some views,
Pressure is building on Centrica to return money to shareholders, says The Times, and while the dividend yield is low, the income growth potential means the shares are not expensive, making them a buy.

Again The Telegraph have a differing opinion, suggesting that concerns about growth and a low dividend makes Centrica less than attractive. Until it decides whether it's a growth or income stock, it's best left alone, says the paper.

 

[kevinmcm]

Short op 13/02

While working on the MA system, noticed another signal. Only signal out of FTSE 100 list.

Short RTO but only if entry is better or very close to 202.75, depending on success i.e 3/4 points gained on a daily trade, hold till next trading day.

Last time this sell signal appeared short entry should have been 228.5 or better. Next day the best entry was 226 which hit 217, 6 trading days later. It then declined steadily for 4 more weeks , hitting a low of 183.5

The next previous signal was for an entry at greater than 227. Next day an entry at 229.25 was possible. It then fell off 225.

[Edit] Short March @201.4 - now covered at 198 (26/02)

 

[kevinmcm]

20 day MA signals

Date - 24/02/2004 Short : CCL >= 2530.00 (entry 2557.4)

12/3 low = 2366

Date - 24/02/2004 Short : JMAT >= 941.50 (no entry yet)

No trade.

Date - 24/02/2004 Short : PSON >= 616.50 (entry 624.4)

12/3 low = 593.5

Date - 24/02/2004 Short : RIO >= 1433.00 (entry 1434.6)

12/3 low = 1310

Test trades. Hold for 14-20 days or for a decent profit if it comes quicker.

 

[kevinmcm]

20 day MA signal NGT

Signal said short NGT over 420.5. There is a gap up to 427 which would be a better entry. I went short June @412.5 and wil add if 420 is hit on June price.

Support on chart around 420 level. Target is around 405.

[Edit] Added at 419.8

 

[kevinmcm]

NGT shorts covered

Both short covered at 410.6. Mistake was entering the trade too early, a better entry would have been when cash hit 427.

Taken around 6 weeks but a nice profit 11.1 points.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock trades for 22/08

These trades are short term sell signals. I look for an entry within 2 days of the signal been triggered and trade for a quick profit. For Monday my stocks to watch are -

Short BSY around 574/6, target 566
- hit a low of 566, should follow though for at least one more day

Short DXNS around 159.25/160.25, target 157.7
- low was 157.75, close at 158.25, quite possible it sees 155 in the next day or so

Short OOM around 154, target 149.3
- low of 151.25, if 154 hols I would expect a sharp dip to at least 149

 

[Minder]

Interesting. Both BSY & OOM are performing as per your signal. Dixons have yet to shift, but it is still early. Are you using a particular software package to generate the signals ?

Good luck, hope you get the hat-trick.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock trades for 23/08

Short BLT @ 843.5 or higher
I'm short @843.1
[23/08] covered 835.9 +7.2

Short BOC @ 1060 or higher

Short CBRY @ 553.5 or higher
[23/08] Short at 554.2

REX is worth watching, should be a short very soon, came within a few points of a short entry. A second setup I use has flagged a possible swing to 512.2, entry if I was shorting would be between 507 and 512.
[23/08] Came off from the open around 502, hitting low 490s

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 24/08

Short BOC around 1060, shouldnt creep much higher, target is 1055

Short CBRY around 556, target is 546
- I'm short at 554.2
- [25/08] covered @550.8, +3.4

 

[kevinmcm]

Stocks picks for 25th August

Long PSON @ 670.5 or under, target approx 680

Long FP @171.75 or under, target approx 175

DOW is at/or close to a bottom around 10435, so watching for early action on that today.

BLT is one to watch also. For me it is a long from 791 area, 785 would the line to stand back at. Below there the support is a long way back.
[25/08] The one that got away! Nice move up, around 16 points as I write.

[25/08]Have gone long SGE @226.9, looking for a move back to low 230 area.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 26th August

Updates for EOD on 26/08
===================

Long PSON @ 670.5 or under, target approx 680
h = 673.5, l = 668

Long FP @170.50 or under, target approx 175
h= 173.5, l = 170.0
[30/08] Reached just under 175

Long BT around 216, target 218.5
[26/08] Scalp long @217 for +0.8, target hit
h = 219.0, l= 214.74

Long DXNS around 151, target 154.5
h = 152.5, l = 149.75

Long EMG around 1611, target 1640
h = 1625, l = 1602
- [31/08] target hit at 1640

Long SGE around 227, may dip as low as 223 first. Target 230
I'm long @226.9
[26/08] Closed @228.8, +1.9, target hit
h = 230, l = 226.25

One to watch from the 250 list
Short IOT around 447, target 439
- I'm short @444.3
- and @459.8 [30/08], ave 452.05
- covered @450.4, +1.6

 

[kevinmcm]

FTSE & DAX ready to bounce

I have FTSE and DAX in the bounce zone here at todays close. Possibly a little more weakness but then the bounce is on.

For FTSE, allowing for a 20 point decline, I have it going back to approx 5298.

DAX I have ready to move to approx 4913. Todays close was 4856 and I have a possible swing low 4824 which I dont think will come in to play.

 

[kevinmcm]

Stock picks for 30th August

Watching for a long entry on WPP around 580, ideally a little lower at 576, target 587. NOT a selection just one to watch until it dips under 580.
- [30/08] Long @573.3

Long VOD around 149.25, target 151.3
[30/08] Bounced as expected to target

Long AZN around 2477, possible it dips to 2450 area before moving up for a few days.
[30/08] Moved up quickly, currently +56 @2535. Next level up is 2555 if it doesnt fall off to 2512 area first.


Also, the picks for Friday are valid for one more day, excluding SGE which reached its target.

 

[kevinmcm]

FTSE & DAX moves

DAX is way overdone and sailed past the possible drop of 9824 I had mentioned. It is a buy here (4783) with a target of 4895. I'm long @4801
[30/08] Closed DAX +24

FTSE is overdone on this drop and should see a minimum of 5251 (from 5228) , ideally with a move back to 5290. Like the DAX I had a allowed for a 20 point drop which actually went a little lower.
- [31/08] FTSE hit target of 5290