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I have been burned enough to feel a trap when I see one. Since this journal is to document my thoughts while in action I will state that I am sitting this upward move out. Looks like a news rally being bought by retail to. My reasons are stated in the above post.
If I am right pice will come crashing down soon. I will not be picking a top. I will wait for price to react around levels of interest. At end of day I will examine the chart and plot a plan. So I will go on record saying this JPY rise at least in GBPJPY isnt going to last very long.
Of course I could be wrong lol. We shall see.
Sure enough price came down big time.
Sell GBPJPY
158.96
SL 159.47
TP 158.20 hard target. Trailing stop set to 40 pips.
I removed the hard target when I saw price move so fast. Letting trailing stop do the work. Cant lose on this trade now as SL is currently 158.54. So if trade suddenly turns around the worse I can do is +42 pips. I can definitely take that and be happy. Currently up +83 pips.
I removed the hard target when I saw price move so fast. Letting trailing stop do the work. Cant lose on this trade now as SL is currently 158.54. So if trade suddenly turns around the worse I can do is +42 pips. I can definitely take that and be happy. Currently up +83 pips.
Actually, im gonna reverse course and take these pips. I see that OBV has not made lower lows with this move down which means price may be at its extreme. This is a good day no need to be greedy.
Out at 158.14
Actually, im gonna reverse course and take these pips. I see that OBV has not made lower lows with this move down which means price may be at its extreme. This is a good day no need to be greedy.
Out at 158.14
Looking at this I have to weigh the pros and cons of my decision. I was in a winning position with what would be considered a pretty good day by my standards at least, especially in such a short period of time. in hindsight I wouldhave caught another 100 pips if I had just trailed like I intended. However after the big move price was at a weekly point of interest and while it was still moving lower, the momentum was making a higher low. it appeared at the time that the convergance of those 2 points showed it was time to get out and not be greedy.
Well price went another 100 pips down.
I will start with the cons because I believe the pros outweigh missing those 100 pips.
Cons: Missed extended move. Did not leave trailing stop as intended which would have netted extra pips.
Pros:
83 pips booked
Showed discipline to take what the market appeared to be giving at the time instead of forcing or trying to "will" the market for more. This especially has been a failing of mine in the past.
Saw what waiting for the right setup can do and how being patient pays off.
Saw how not sticking to the plan entirely can cost pips (not leaving trailing stop). While this was also a con I choose to make it a pro as well because I know next time I will leave the trail as planned. Perhaps next time it will stop me out before 100 pips but i will capture more of a move when I am right as well as possibly protect me by going to breakeven if atrade starts out well but then goes against me.
So those are my pro's and cons. If anyone is reading this and has any other points feel free to add.
Too much traffic at these levels for JPY pairs. Lots of weekly resistance, price can go either way. My fundamental knowledge is limited so I cant really put that aspect into my trading yet. That would another solid edge to know the "why" of certain actions outside of currency and how they move price. Looks like rotational day for the pairs but im not going to guess.
As it is it looks like consolidation for now and I don't want to get chopped up in it. I'l sit tonight out,
As it is it looks like consolidation for now and I don't want to get chopped up in it. I'l sit tonight out,
Looks tricky for JPY this evening. Nice setup on 1 hour chart with OBV divergence, price below kumo lower high made as well as directly under a key resistance point. All points to price heading down. But when I check out the 4hr chart OBV is definitely saying JPY is headed for the rocket ship upward and over the recent highs the just crashed from. Today could be bigggggggg short trap, start off in short direction, or even fall for the day but next week looks to be setting up for a short beatdown.
Price closing with a higher value area is also another clue. Money is buying while retail is selling. I am trying to think less like a trader and more along the lines of how the larger institutions are trying to sucker me into a bad trade. I am willing to bet there are a massive amount of stops above 1158.20 for GBPJPY and 134.85 for eurjpy. On 4hr eurjpy is looking for 134.50 and beyond while gbpjpy is looking for 159.50 and beyond. Both may try to bait retail into continuing the short down of course by big money to buy at a cheaper price and then BOOM right back in the other direction.
Price closing with a higher value area is also another clue. Money is buying while retail is selling. I am trying to think less like a trader and more along the lines of how the larger institutions are trying to sucker me into a bad trade. I am willing to bet there are a massive amount of stops above 1158.20 for GBPJPY and 134.85 for eurjpy. On 4hr eurjpy is looking for 134.50 and beyond while gbpjpy is looking for 159.50 and beyond. Both may try to bait retail into continuing the short down of course by big money to buy at a cheaper price and then BOOM right back in the other direction.
5 minute OBV is looking like its showing price wants to break resistance at 157.78. I will also place a small test order to sell above this as well. Test sell above will only be a small .01 lot
Sell
GBYJPY 158.05
SL 158.40
TP Same hard target of 156.70 and I will just place a 60 pip trailing stop and see where it will run.
Order has been placed. Price is still 157.72
Sell
GBYJPY 158.05
SL 158.40
TP Same hard target of 156.70 and I will just place a 60 pip trailing stop and see where it will run.
Order has been placed. Price is still 157.72
I will not my placement of trailing stops. I set the stops to trigger just before a resistance or support point. This way if price hits resistance or support and turns against me then I should hopefully be stopped out with a profit or at the least at break even.
5 minute OBV is looking like its showing price wants to break resistance at 157.78. I will also place a small test order to sell above this as well. Test sell above will only be a small .01 lot
Sell
GBYJPY 158.05
SL 158.40
TP Same hard target of 156.70 and I will just place a 60 pip trailing stop and see where it will run.
Order has been placed. Price is still 157.72
Canceled this order as first order was triggered. If this trade were hit it would now negate short bias.
Put in order to sell 2 lots
SELL
GBPJPY 157.50
SL 157.90
TP hard target 156.70 will place a 50 pip trailing stop.
Order triggered. Almost didn't get it. Didn't realize that I didn't have enough in my demo account for 2 lots. 1200.00 so trade was taken manually at 157.51 (after it had already gone below 157.50) 1 lot at .05
With first hour nearing a close I can see that the 1st hour is almost double what it usually is. This could mean a balanced type day with price staying within this range for the most part. Price went straight down at the open which tells me either it was responsive selling back to balance or other time frame looking to sell. If price can stay below 157.30 then this may mean other time frame is in control and driving price down. If 157.30 holds then today may be normal or rotational and locals have control.
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