JPY and my progression as a trader

[ndnole]

Well it has been a while but I have come back more determined than ever to succeed. Having blown sever real accounts and countless demo account I feel I am at a point where I can begin trading again soon. But one of the most important things I have learned is the truth about learning about yourself.

The truth of the matter is I like to hit the homerun. Often I scoff at the thought of taking 20 or 30 pips when I clearly see 100 if I wait just a little while longer only to see the trade g to a loss. Then I took the time to see how much I would have made if I wasn't so greedy and the numbers amazed me.

So, While I will still shoot for the homerun occasionally, I will look for reasonable consistent goals of no more than 50 pips. Based on how I trade this isn't too hard, more like moderate.

I took the time to study my strengths and focus on ONE system. I have come to the conclusion that market profile fits my thought process and has help me immensely in understanding the market. It alone has taught me how to be more patient and wait for a better probability trade. With price action as the number one focus, discipline, market profile and a few other things I call my secret sauce (though im sure its not really a secret to the majority of traders) I feel success is the only option so long as I conquer my own emotions which has been a work in progress but I have under wraps now.

Consistency is the goal.

 

[ndnole]

Without further chatter Here is what I will be doing:

Market profile
Ichimoku
rotation factor
OBV

And that's it. These 4 things work well in my opinion to give a good idea of where a trade is likely to go.

 

[ndnole]

So, please take note I am still demo trading. I want to see a win rate of 60% from this point on before trading live again. The point is to gain consistency. These are not signals and should be followed at your own risk.

I will only be focusing on EURJPY

 

[ndnole]

At this time it looks to be setting up for a nice move of over 100 pips. My bias for the pair is down right now due to where price is in regards to value currently on the higher end. Price has been balanced for the past 4 months at least all the while moment has been steadily slowing. I pretty big move down is in the offing in the next few months. I defiantly see 127.00.

 

[ndnole]

As mention price is setting up for a move. daily mp is balanced at the time of this post. Resistance above on hourly per ichimoku. Rotation factor is weak and showing downward bias. OBV steadily going lower and making lower lows.

Sell 130.70
SL 131.70
1st TP 129.90
2nd TP 128.80

4 small lots .05

My thoughts are price my overshoot today and get to about 130.90 and no more than 131.10 for the high. I expect price to reverse from there. We shall see. Price is currently 130.15

 

[ndnole]

If the breakout is upward whick it looks to be, I see it may hit up to 131.50 by Friday and then the reverse. While I do see price may pop upwards I have learned not to take every trade, especially trades that are not within my set up and have deal breaks like resistance/support in the way. I always trade in the direction of MOMENTUM and value. Momentum is down and soon enough it will fall barring some news that has not come out yet. I also have learned that the forex does not give a crap about what I think will happen and it will do what it wants even if it doesn't make any sense.

 

[NVP]

good luck with this ........sounds like you have finally found yourself.....which is THE major breakthrough point for any Trader in their journey to consistent profitability ....

E/J is a nice pair to pick.........its got plenty of volatility and can be very kind if conditions are right

N

 

[Purple Brain]

This is what makes this market. ndnole long while I'm short. Within our own timeframes and trading methods and position constructions we could both end up being right or both end up being wrong.

For the record:
I'm short on a break below 129.98. Stop 130.38.
Move to b/e at 129.80.
Targets 129.60, 129.26, 128.55 and 128.24 where I take 25% off initial position size off at each and move stop down to next higher SR level.

 

[ndnole]

This is what makes this market. ndnole long while I'm short. Within our own timeframes and trading methods and position constructions we could both end up being right or both end up being wrong.

For the record:
I'm short on a break below 129.98. Stop 130.38.
Move to b/e at 129.80.
Targets 129.60, 129.26, 128.55 and 128.24 where I take 25% off initial position size off at each and move stop down to next higher SR level.

I would say we are on the same side of bias. At the time of the post there was room to move up. My bias is also short and I would not take a buy as I see a good move down coming. I think price in the area of 130.70 to 131.00 is a good area to short and im waiting there if it gets there. Your targets are near to mine.

 

[ndnole]

good luck with this ........sounds like you have finally found yourself.....which is THE major breakthrough point for any Trader in their journey to consistent profitability ....

E/J is a nice pair to pick.........its got plenty of volatility and can be very kind if conditions are right

N

Thank you. I have indeed found what fits me and I will stick to just one pair for a good while. When I am consistant for a whole year i will consider adding a pair.

You are so correct. Finding yourself is the most important thing. Not indicators, or systems etc..knowing WHY you do the things you do in a trade is more important that all those other things. When I make a decision now I know exactly why otherwise i dont consider the trade. Hopefully sustained success will now follow. At the very least i wont be chasing trades anymore.

 

[ndnole]

Well My order was not filled. I have found that of in a days time my order isn't filled that it is best to take it down. It looks as if the pair is ready to pop one way or the other. I still feel it is going to go down but not until a good upward push. My reasons are simple:

Its another balanced day in a very narrow range for 2 days in a row now

OBV is moving up on hourly

Price is in the low value area of 3 days ago.

That all leads me to believe a pop upwards is coming. Upper value on daily is around 131.00. I wont take a trade against my bias which is down, there is overhead resistance for any move up. I will feel comfortable shorting around 130.70 to 131 but I wont place that as I want to see how high price goes and then exhaust. I will sit and wait. A trait I have learned is worth its pips

 

[ndnole]

Also I must note price is currently 130.16

 

[Purple Brain]

My sell order wasn't triggered before it expired at 18:00 BST and like you, I don't leave any limit orders on after the main trading session. It was a truly messy pair yesterday and no clarity for me either this morning so no trade planned.

 

[ndnole]

My sell order wasn't triggered before it expired at 18:00 BST and like you, I don't leave any limit orders on after the main trading session. It was a truly messy pair yesterday and no clarity for me either this morning so no trade planned.

Agreed. I am staying out today as well. Choppy day yesterday. I havnt done well on fridays over the past few years so I generally will avoid them as days to trade anyways. Some indecision here though in this pair. GBYJPY moved better this week but I have chosen to focus on one pair and hone my skills.

 

[ndnole]

I am glad I did not enter a trade yesterday. In the past I would have gotten impatient and shorted because too much time had past. Instead I sat tight and just waited for the trade to come to me. In this case it did not. I didnt get my order filled and thats fine. I also didnt enter a trade with a bad entry point and get chopped up which in itself is a victory and a sign of progress in my progression.

Price did fall about 50 pips from my post yesterday to around 129.61. But my set up wasnt there so I dont feel bad about missing that trade. in fact, I dont even aim to get all the homeruns anymore. If I can catch 50 pips off of a 100-150 point move I am satisfied. I will let others try and squeeze out all the pips they can. I want to win consitantly with defined risk and reward that is acceptable 1:2. If I see potential for a large move I may go for it but not outside the bounds of my plan and system.

To any new trader who may happen upon this, if you take nothing else from whatever I write please do the following:

STOP thinking indicators ae the key to you making a lot of money. They are helpful and I do use them but they are only as good as YOU are as a trader and how you intepret them.

Learn WHY price is doing what it is doing. This is pretty key in my eyes. Just because a price is going up or down is not a good reason to trade. Knowing why it is doing so will help you stay out of bad trades and also to find good ones.

PRICE ACTION and what it is doing at key levels will save you from getting crushed in a trade even when you may have made the right decision.

TAKE profits when you are right.

At one time or another I didnt do any of these things and now I am determined to do them all.

 

[ndnole]

Observing the markets from the sidelines today. I see at the time of this post that the pair I have chosen EURJPY has gone down as I expected it would. I thought it would try to push up first based on my analysis. As low as 129.31 or about 80 pips from where I was looking at it. I did see a potential move down but did not take it because it just didnt fit for me.

Looking at the chart it was pretty much one big move on one 1hr candle that did it. Im not in the business of guessing a candle. Did that, and it has cost me money in the past. I am content missing this move because the choppiness before it went down just wasnt worth it.

On the flipside, I am pleased to see that I recognized the probibility that price was going down and why it was going down. I am still fairly certain it is going to move upwards before any signifigant move down. I will look at the chart after the close and see if I can plan a trade for next week.

 

[ndnole]

Going to stay out of the market today as Monday is a U.S. holiday. I really want to short but it doesn't look like it is time to short yet per my analysis. My reasons are the following:

August ended as very balanced, right in the middle of value. Price could go either way from here and im not going to guess, I will let price lead the way.

OBV on 4hr is not decidedly down

Price is near last weeks low value area on weekly market Profile

Negative rotation factor is weakening

 

[ndnole]

My secret sauce says there is a down trend but price is currently steadily moving against the trend in the short term.

I see 130.90 sometime soon at the least so I wont short until price is in that area. Oddly If price reaches that area I would have to see it fall back first because trend would be somewhat reversing if not.

130.50 may be tough for price to break through. I will watch this area for further thoughts. If it passes this price with some conviction I would wait to short around 131.20.

If that happens I would target 127.50 for TP if I were to trade the 4hr and the monthly market profile.

 

[ndnole]

Looking as if 131.70 areas is where I would look for a slowdown as that is a monthly point of control from the past. I will watch to see what price does around that area.

My signal is showing the trend right now is up. Since my short term bias is down I will wait to trade once I see price has exhausted upward. Price is currently 131.07 at the time of this post and U.S. Market is closed so no use trading today. I will decide a plan once price makes it to 131.70 or in the even price moves down before that I would not consider the trend down until break below 130.30

 

[ndnole]

I will probably stay out again Monday night. Price on upper value right now on daily market profile. I would predict price to fall to 130.50 area and then go back up to 131.70 area which is previously untouched point of control. I ink that is my decision area now. Current price at time of post is 131.01