James Simons, performance fees and quants

[postman]

I was not asking anything specifically.
Just adding to KlondikeFX's argument. 😐



That's bullcrap. Trading is too personal a game to assert black and white claims like that and attribute them to everyone.

Moreover, if you don't look at the left side of the chart, or in other words, if you don't look at the past...
Where are you going to get the information to make your brilliant future decision?
Do you make it up?! 🤨

It's fine to have an expectation of what the price will most likely do in the near future but to say that those who look at the left side of the chart are losers is just going too far (as well as incorrect). 😑

Very well, let me clarify. People who make trading decisions based on only looking left on a chart are more likely to lose than people who can accurately judge what will happen.
This type of decision exists in an option chain on basic platforms where you are presented with a percentage chance of an option expiring in the money. This uses a standard deviation from the norm to look right on a chart.

 

[cantagril]

State calmi, ragazzi!

I see that I've been too slow in writing this but I'll post it anyway:

Much as it pains me to defend Postman, I have to say I don't believe he was trying to say that the past is to be completely ignored but rather that it is the future that should be the focus of interest and that an estimation of the probabilities of an asset's behaviour in that future is what counts.

As far as being "chartist" goes - a chart is merely a graphical representation of data, and conditions dictate which particular representation will be more helpful than another - as does the identity of the trader seeking that help. ...and for those that don't need a picture, reading the tape also does well.

An approach that "works" for any particular trader is just that and may not work for another under identical conditions. I can rant and rave about how great my particular approach is for me because it makes me money and it suits who I am but that's all I can say with any certainty. OTOH some kind of EA or programme may well produce better results when applied rigorously.

The only thing that matters in either case has nothing to do with opinion and everything to do with results.

 

[KlondikeFX]

It's not about what @postman wrote. I just wanted to make clear that I think the quoted statement from PPP is wrong

A quant use datas from the past in majority.

That's why he lose.

Moreover, some of them are systematic... that increase the problem :

They have a set up, so...

As they have a set up, they have fixed entry points.

As they have fixed entry points, they can not control their Time Drawdown.

And as they can not control their Time Drawdown, they lose.

A quant losing because he is using data from the past??
That's why I wanted to point out that almost every trading decision is based on historic price data. How you interpret this data and how you manage risk is what makes you winning or losing.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Exact 10 years of data are the past exactly like one bar.

 

[postman]

It's not about what @postman wrote. I just wanted to make clear that I think the quoted statement from PPP is wrong



A quant losing because he is using data from the past??
That's why I wanted to point out that almost every trading decision is based on historic price data. How you interpret this data and how you manage risk is what makes you winning or losing.

The thing about historic data and the trading decisions you make based upon it is purely how many other people are thinking the same way as YOU. If ALL traders believe the price will go up to the one day pivot and then reverse then it will! However if 30% think it will and the other 70% think it will go to the second daily pivot 30% of traders will lose money. It just depends on how many people think like you on that particular day as to whether you are right (and make money). However if you watch the sharp end and see people buying and selling with ebbing and flowing intensity you can see as it is happening where the market is turning. If you have made notes of where previous buying and selling conflicts have occured this can give you an indication of where the price is heading.
Thats what I do.

The dow is trading at 27,893 right now. It has reached a turning point and will fall below 27,640 today.
Just my opinion based on whats happening at the sharp end right now.
Is that number relevant, not to me.

And it works for me.

 

[LongVision]

This type of decision exists in an option chain on basic platforms where you are presented with a percentage chance of an option expiring in the money. This uses a standard deviation from the norm to look right on a chart.

Even standard deviation and volatility calculation is based on past price action. Current example, Standard deviation on stocks and stocks index shoots up during Feb-20 to March-20 due to sharp drawdown.

Higher percentage of win comes with tail risk. Strangle selling have higher chance of winning then Iron fly. Strangle selling was complete disaster during sharp sell off but Iron fly saved anyone from disastrous drawdown.

Looking at current data without past performance is a recipe for disaster.

Past performance doesn't guarantee future result. But if something didn't work on past data it will never going to work on future (unknown ) data.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Precisely, every kind of knowledge behind our decisions comes from the past, even fundamentals.
Present doesn't exist, past is known and future is unknown.

 

[postman]

Precisely, every kind of knowledge behind our decisions comes from the past, even fundamentals.
Present doesn't exist, past is known and future is unknown.

I think there may be a language barrier here but the case is exactly the opposite.
The present is the ONLY thing that exists, the past does NOT exist and neither does the future, however we as a species have evolved because we can project events in to the future. This is the human edge, exploit it!

"The past and future do not exist and are only concepts used to describe the real, isolated, and changing present. "

Eternalism (philosophy of time) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DominionCuentas]

The thing about historic data and the trading decisions you make based upon it is purely how many other people are thinking the same way as YOU. If ALL traders believe the price will go up to the one day pivot and then reverse then it will! However if 30% think it will and the other 70% think it will go to the second daily pivot 30% of traders will lose money. It just depends on how many people think like you on that particular day as to whether you are right (and make money). However if you watch the sharp end and see people buying and selling with ebbing and flowing intensity you can see as it is happening where the market is turning. If you have made notes of where previous buying and selling conflicts have occured this can give you an indication of where the price is heading.
Thats what I do.

That's also what I try to do. 😀

It's important to phrase your statements like "Losers look left winners look right!" correctly, because otherwise people will probably call you out 😉 and you will end up talking about"Eternalism"...

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Yes only the present exist but every info comes from the past, last second or last 10 years.

 

[postman]

That's also what I try to do. 😀

It's important to phrase your statements like "Losers look left winners look right!" correctly, because otherwise people will probably call you out 😉 and you will end up talking about"Eternalism"...

Yes, well as long as I keep bringing in the money I will continue to read all kinds of books about mathematics, artificial intelligence, quantum theory AND "Eternalism".
I will endeavor to phrase my comments more precisely in the future given the nature of our cosmopolitan group. Remember we are all doing this because we love it and some of us want to help out. I am offering a different perspective you can examine the results or ignore it completely, I hope we can continue a cordial discourse.

 

[DominionCuentas]

I hope we can continue a cordial discourse.

OF COURSE.

 

[postman]

OF COURSE.

And still make fun of each other when we reference topics such as Eternalism

 

[cantagril]

And still make fun of each other when we reference topics such as Eternalism

Damn!

You beat me to it, again😡

I was going to make a snide remark but you've once more outsnided* me.

* Not sure that this term is included in online translators.

 

[Pure Pip Producer]

now i will speak only in private, on my Twitter @PurePipProducer, to the investors, to the people who want to invest and also to the people who have a verified track-record. (winning or losing)

That was my last public post on this forum.

Forums are not made for me.

It's more for people who are looking for something. Sorry but, I'm not.

See you in hell guys

Rectification : I will speak only to investor after 3 months investment. My risk manager can plan, then, a Skype appointment or a phone call.

Just ignore me then.
I will never invest in one Darwin where the trader talks like you do. The day you are in DD then you will not talk to investors or tell them they are idiots.

Your track record is not impressive so you should be careful play guru.

Please ignore me and be serious.

I hope soon, like a real Hedge fund Manager, i will have the opportunity to choose who can invest or not in the Darwin PDC with the 'Private Label'. Be sure that from that moment, the Darwin will be close to you and to the people like you. Because, once again, i don't need investors, investors need me.

Once i could choose my investors, there will have none idiots at all.

A great PDC, so far.
But, just 03 months in profit.
Nothing to conclude at all.
I've seen a lot of Darwinian with a better consecutive months in profit such as ZAI, HFD, SCS, SUG ... but at some point they all crashed significantly.
Except, THA. It's the only one I think I can believe now.

It's not about the length of the Track-Record. It's about the trading process.

Sorry, but i have nothing to do with all the 'Traders' you talked about.

It's not about what @postman wrote. I just wanted to make clear that I think the quoted statement from PPP is wrong



A quant losing because he is using data from the past??
That's why I wanted to point out that almost every trading decision is based on historic price data. How you interpret this data and how you manage risk is what makes you winning or losing.

I said : "datas of the past in majority"

I use around 20% of the datas of the past and 80% of the Future.

And it's not only about the Present, the Past and the Future.

They are not 3.

They are 3² = 9

The past from the point of view of the past
The past from the point of view of the present
The past from the point of view of the future

The present from the point of view of the past
The present from the point of view of the present
The present from the point of view of the future

The future from the point of view of the past
The future from the point of view of the present
The future from the point of view of the future


Make them fictional characters. Make them talk to each other. Thus, you will probably understand, one given day, that some of them are right more often than some others in the same situation.

It took me 5 years to develop that. But, as i give you the 3² = 9 times, you could probably win around 3 years in your progression.





I will not answer to the questions.

You must find your own way to the Reality.

The Reality has nothing to do with Mathematics.

 

[postman]

Rectification : I will speak only to investor after 3 months investment. My risk manager can plan, then, a Skype appointment or a phone call.



I hope soon, like a real Hedge fund Manager, i will have the opportunity to choose who can invest or not in the Darwin PDC with the 'Private Label'. Be sure that from that moment, the Darwin will be close to you and to the people like you. Because, once again, i don't need investors, investors need me.

Once i could choose my investors, there will have none idiots at all.





It's not about the length of the Track-Record. It's about the trading process.

Sorry, but i have nothing to do with all the 'Traders' you talked about.




I said : "datas of the past in majority"

I use around 20% of the datas of the past and 80% of the Future.

And it's not only about the Present, the Past and the Future.

They are not 3.

They are 3² = 9

The past from the point of view of the past
The past from the point of view of the present
The past from the point of view of the future

The present from the point of view of the past
The present from the point of view of the present
The present from the point of view of the future

The future from the point of view of the past
The future from the point of view of the present
The future from the point of view of the future


Make them fictional characters. Make them talk to each other. Thus, you will probably understand, one given day, that some of them are right more often than some others in the same situation.

It took me 5 years to develop that. But, as i give you the 3² = 9 times, you could probably win around 3 years in your progression.





I will not answer to the questions.

You must find your own way to the Reality.

The Reality has nothing to do with Mathematics.

 

[Pure Pip Producer]

The most important is the Future from the point of view of the Future.

He's laughing at us.




By reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb trilogy :

1) Fooled by Randomness

2) The Black Swan

3) When we arrive at the 3rd book "Antifragile", we must take all our time to read the chapter 13.



That could be a source of inspiration for most of us.

 

[postman]

The most important is the Future from the point of view of the Future.

He's laughing at us.




By reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb trilogy :

1) Fooled by Randomness

2) The Black Swan

3) When we arrive at the 3rd book "Antifragile", we must take all our time to read the chapter 13.



That could be a source of inspiration for most of us.

Thankyou.
Good books are hard to find in the mass of detritus.