It's All About The Pips...

[PaulKing]

Cable cheeky short, from Fridays live room

Hey every-one

I seem to recall that a few people took cable short on Friday afternoon in the New York open session (I wasn't one of them, but I'm sure we all thought it was a pull back and only good for 50 odd pips, although some-one bravely said they were holding it to 1.48)

Did anyone 'accidently' leave a small bit running:

happy pip hunting tomorrow
Paul

 

[elitejets]

Hi Dan,
Here is my very long day ...Big thanks to Zia for luring me into Sterling shorts at the end of the day when I thought the pound could drop no lower. I owe you Zia.

My tally in chronological order:
GBPJPY +104
WTI +75
OIL +72
Gold -60
OIL -50
WTI -50
OIL +130 (still in short from 45.09)
WTI +163 (still in short from 42.53)
GBPJPY +120
GBPUSD +105
11 hrs trading (I know that is V bad) / 10 trades / 70% success rate / +609 pips

Pipsy Galore

 

[Punto]

Hi
Which traderplatform is the best for forex.? and oil?
Would appreciate any suggestions!
I played virtual money on FXCM.COM

 

[danarm]

Good morning all. I hope you are well and that you had a good day yesterday.

Looks like we have the potential of a quiet morning on my side.
The Yen pairs drifted off nicely yesterday but I won’t be looking to jump in to GBPJPY or EURJPY at these levels, not after a 600 and 300 pip drop from specified entries points of yesterday morning.

USDJPY is the only one of these Yens that I am interested in for this session. It hasn’t done a great deal the last couple of days, but although we have a conflick of opinion with 4hr 20 above the 4hr 50 and 60m 20 below 60m 50 it will be interesting to see where this goes.
Need’s to break 90.00 to confirm a move south and certainly wouldn’t be looking for a long position on this.
If it does break the 90.00 level we can look at a short with a stop at 90.50 (above the 60m 20ema), targeting 89.40 for most part of the position then holding the remaining balance to 89.00 then 88.50
Need to wait for 21CCI and trigger on 15m chart.

and the rest………..

GBPJPY-Make fresh lows on 4hr chart. In real danger of 100.00 in the not too distant future, making Japanese beer about 30 pounds a pint!!
No immediate entry available. look for retrace on 4hr chart first.

EURJPY-Not yet taken out the lows of last week so an unconfirmed major continuation. Can only hold tight with this one and wait for some 4hr green.

USDCHF-Looking pretty bid since breaking-out yesterday. Has capability of pushing up to 1.1500 but could use some red on the 60m chart to around 1.1320 before looking for a possible long position.

GBPCHF-Falling nicely with GBPJPY yesterday, but again at a dangerous level just to warrant jumping in. Best to steer clear of this until we get some green on 60m chart.

EURCHF-Failed to break the 1.5020 level yesterday. Looking good on a 4hr chart to continue the move down. Are we going to see this re-test that 1.43 level? It loos likely and definately on thats technical set-up suggest it’s not hugely oversold.
a test of resistance at 1.4820 (60m 20ema) now on the 60m chart, along with the trigger confirming as it crosses back down through the 0.0 could be the move to look out for.

Summary……….

Look for USDJPY to remain BELOW the 60m 20ema at 90.45. If it does then turns back down there may be an opportunity short to the 90.00 region, where we would like to see a break where we can add to the position.
Wait for EURCHF to move up to the 60m 20ema at 1.4820, then see what it does on 15m chart. Should it turn back down on the 15m chart with trigger conriming there would be a nice opportunity for a slightly longer-term short play with a stop above the pivot at 1.4860
and targeting 1.4750, 1.4700 & 1.4650.

Have a good morning.

Zak

 

[danarm]

Good morning all

Well GBP has made its move and on its way to 1.2500…

—————————————-

GOLD – Looks weak. Look for 60min trigger to line up for downward move.Be patient with AUD, EUR & GBP as retracements are on…

EURGBP – Broken the daily 20ma which is very positive. Look for support off this level. The 4hr 20ma should hold below the DP at 0.9050. Important to watch CABLE today as yes it should continue its fall but the 60min chart suggests a retracement could be on which could limit EURGBP this morning. Worth waiting for 60min trigger on this one.

GOLD – Hasn’t managed to hold the MP at $835.00. Needs a small retracement but should fall again from here. 60min 20ma will protect the upside at $834.00. Looks good for downside on 15min chart.

AUDUSD – With GOLD potentially moving lower AUD will follow. Large support at WS1 at 6550. Look for pullback on 60min chart b4 selling with trend. A break of WS1 would signal a more aggressive move lower.

EURUSD – Yes GBP is weak but what hope has EUR got…Its bad in Europe and I fancy the EUR a lot lower from here. The 60min chart is oversold after yesterday. Too many red candles so going to be patient and wait for retracement b4 selling with trend again.

CABLE – Well we predicted this would happen and it has made new lows. 1.2500 is on the cards but today leaves us with the challenge of a potential retracement. Look how many red candles are on our 60min chart. The risk has increased for us and it is hard to sell here. Look for pullback b4 trading with the downward trend.

OIL – 60min chart shows a clear triangle forming. Look for a break lower and a break below the MP at $43.40 for a move towards the $38.00 level.

Have a great morning and well done for yesterday.

Remember to be patient and wait for trades to come to you.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Good morning all,

What an aweful day yeesterday for UK financial stocks. We saw record losses being posted by RBS of -£20 b and shares in the Royal back traded as low as -70% but ended the day at -66% down at 11.52 pps. Gordon Brown has critisized the bank for taking extreme risks buying up huge chunks subprime debt and also their purchase of ABM Ambro for £20 b three months before the start of the credit crunch.

Mr Darling has introduced his new structure to help increase lending between banks key poionts below.

• Banks will be able to take up government insurance against their expected bad debts

• The Bank of England will be able to buy up to £50bn worth of assets in companies in all sectors of the economy

• Northern Rock has been given extra time to repay its loans from the government

• The government is increasing its stake in RBS to nearly 70% from 58%. RBS also said it was set to report a huge loss for 2008, with asset write-downs of up to £20bn.

President Obama will be taking centre stage today with the historic Inauguration. He will immediately inherit an economic mess so grave that it recalls the Great Depression, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the burden of being first. Obama has signaled he will make audacious moves on all fronts.

Problems facing the US

The rate of job loss is accelerating, with 2.6 million jobs lost in 2008 alone, and the unemployment rate has soared to more than 7%.

The housing market is still in freefall after two years of declines, and the number of foreclosures, or repossessions, is at a record high.

Federal government’s budget deficit to over $1 trillion, the highest in history and more than double what it was during the last financial year.

Credit Crunch.

Lets see how his $800 b stimulus package will work.

James

 

[danarm]

Good morning all

Well done to Julie..Her 1st 100 pip day...Excellent work and vvv impressed. No stopping you now!!!

Wel take you pick. I was Mr Conservative again but made my 100 pips but should have cleared up on these short term charts. At least i am short on my long term book in CABLE. This baby is going to 1.2500...

Went short of EURUSD at 1.2930 for 50 pips
Went short of CABLE at 1.3935 to 1.3850 and 1.3873.

Far too conservative but thats the way it goes.

Feel as if i got that par in golf but should have got that birdie!!!(Golfers will know what i mean).

So many options to make pips its scary...EURGBP, EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, GBPCHF, GBPJPY...Trade with the trend and pips come flooding in!!!

See u later.

D

PS Watch that OIL...

 

[danarm]

Look how EURUSD bounced back to the DP...Thats why i am conservative...Had to remind myself!!!

It hit WS2 and then bounced as planned so happy with my 50 pips there.

D

PS All because of GOLD...Lovely jubbly.

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Gold was a peach and WS1 hit...

Well done

D

PS Barry saw u enter this at $850.00. Great entry.

 

[danarm]

Hi

Havent hit OIL yet but looking closely at it...Trigger on 60min is key and support level.

D

 

[jel31]

Thanks Dan

Had a slow start to the week (zero pips yesterday) so right back on target now!

It has now become abundantly clear that I didn't have a clue what I was doing before joining you guys. No wonder I wasn't making any pips and getting more and more disillusioned.

Loving it now though, 100 pips before breakfast is such a great feeling!

Cheers for all your hard work and catch you later

Julie

 

[danarm]

Thanks Dan

Had a slow start to the week (zero pips yesterday) so right back on target now!

It has now become abundantly clear that I didn't have a clue what I was doing before joining you guys. No wonder I wasn't making any pips and getting more and more disillusioned.

Loving it now though, 100 pips before breakfast is such a great feeling!

Cheers for all your hard work and catch you later

Julie

Great trading Julie..

D

 

[tantra]

Hey Dan.. how far up do you see this cable retracement? Are we talking fib lines here? Or S&R levels?

 

[danarm]

Hi

What an afternoon with expiries...JPYs just kick off and with gbpjpy and eurjpy both falling cable and eurusd had to follow.

Many went short just above the figure..I got in at 1.3800 down to 52..Stealth but happy with 50 pip trades on my short term book...They soon add up over the week...

See u tom...

D

 

[danarm]

Hey Dan.. how far up do you see this cable retracement? Are we talking fib lines here? Or S&R levels?

Hi

It wont retrace if GBPJPY keeps falling...The 60min 20ma is key and never broke.

 

[elitejets]

What a day

Still holding my oil shorts from yesterday which are around the same level as last night after some scary spikes up. Glad I was not trying to get in today.

The options expiry was crazy for the yens. I thought I did well this morning but then the GBPJPY fell off the 1hr 20ma and I jumped on because I thought it would get me 50 pips. Boy did it fall off a cliff ... Poor Sterling
When there is nothing doing in Crude GBPJPY is my favourite to watch.

AUDUSD short -30 (yes I still hate Gold )
GBPJPY short +110 (the lovely drop first thing this morning)
GBPUSD +105 (first thing this morning)
GBPJPY +337 (the yen rules)

Nicola
Might get into USDJPY later on a 123, waiting to see

 

[elitejets]

cable is gone

Cable just breached the old 1.3681 level.
All bets are off for Sterling now

 

[theiceman]

Excelent, Nicola and Julie,

Yes it was a good day altogether.

I managed to bank 244 pips on cable and E/U, totally missed the yens, well that's how it goes.

Loving the fx500club, and when I get my money managment in order and get a bit more disciplined in my trading, then I guess 2009 is going to be a great year, all I need actually is around 250 pips a week, and I'm good.

With this strategy, discipline and good money managment, that should be achievable, even for me.

Discipline, patience and good money managment is the name of the game, that I have learned over these past few weeks.

Thank you guys.

 

[Kappa]

You're right, discipline and patience is what i'm lacking at the moment.

Came home from work, frustrated i was 10 pips down from the morning.

Tried to scalp, claw, bite my way back, nothing went my way, was another 20 pips down. Then, calmed down, really focused on looking for an opportunity. Longed on USDJPY, banked 60 points. My most so far, i could get more, but i was happy here.

Im chuffed today, ok only 30 pips up, but I'm happy

 

[danarm]

Excelent, Nicola and Julie,

Yes it was a good day altogether.

I managed to bank 244 pips on cable and E/U, totally missed the yens, well that's how it goes.

Loving the fx500club, and when I get my money managment in order and get a bit more disciplined in my trading, then I guess 2009 is going to be a great year, all I need actually is around 250 pips a week, and I'm good.

With this strategy, discipline and good money managment, that should be achievable, even for me.

Discipline, patience and good money managment is the name of the game, that I have learned over these past few weeks.

Thank you guys.

Discipline, patience and good money managment is the name of the game, that I have learned over these past few weeks.

Everyone should read this...

Great trading by the way...Very impressive.

D

PS All alone as the family are in London. In the old days i would be out with the lads till 2.00am...I must be getting old!!! Dogs even left me...He's in his 5 star retreat sunning himself by the pool.