Is this one Spot on?

[cyberwiz]

Hi Paul,

Unfortunately the market is very choppy today. I took a loss with my real account too.
I am not comfortable trading without a stoploss because in the past I saw once my account almost vanishing in a less than a second after the trade went against me. Perhaps try a very wide s/l or stop and reverse.

Regards,

Dimi

 

[Paulio17]

yep, only a SAR would have been no good today either. Hmmm, i dont think the spoton stratedgy has worked very well so far this week. however, i shall have faith and keep trading, i think lol. Some summer Holiday im having, might as well be out in the sun! it would be more profitable lol.

Paul

 

[waverider]

I'm only paper-trading GPB$ at the moment and my sar cost me 164 theoretical pips (whipped both ways) so don't be too quick to switch from stops to sar, at least on GPB$. GPB seems choppier than Eur$, which makes a difference. But it could all change in September.

Today my 10 pip buffer saved me from going short on the Euro$ (real money) and prevented me from triggering the subsequent long on the spike. Saved me loads. I had in any case decided not to trade any shorts today due to the strength on Friday and the closeness to prior high 2320, and major level of 2300.

So far, my experience of JT's system is that it's a good start point but that if you can overlay it with some experience of how markets act under certain conditions (like when near strong support/resistance levels) you can eliminate some losses.

 

[Paulio17]

Certainly makes sense, shame i have no FX experience whatsoever lol.

 

[cyberwiz]

Today my 10 pip buffer saved me from going short on the Euro$ (real money) and prevented me from triggering the subsequent long on the spike. Saved me loads.

waverider,

I have probably missed this earlier in the thread. Do you place a trade 10 pips higher/lower than the current high/low? Let me know.

Thanks,

Dimi

 

[waverider]

Dimi

That's it exactly, and, because I'm spreadbetting and to protect from slippage I add a full spread as well - 3 pips on EurUsd. So today's 7-10am high / low from esignal were 2381 and 2337 respectively. To 2381 I added 10 + 3, so long trigger was 2394, and I subtracted 10+3 from 2337 to get my short trigger of 2324. It obviously worked well for me today, but I think today was fairly exceptional. But I've tracked it's worth since July 1st and it has saved me 100s of pips on balance. But this is using sar, not stops the way you do.

I get the impression that the JT-type strategies are known about within the market-makers and so you'll often get a fake-out from the early range. 10 pips cuts donwn on some of them.

WR

 

[ferrrris]

Can someone please tell me what is meant by the "direction of the first breakout", cause I'm a beginner, and would like to try this system. Does it mean that; for example if the difference between the open price and highest is greater than difference between open and lowest price reached so far, then you should buy - if that makes sense.
Thanks a lot
Fez

 

[TWI]

I have personally not found that a fixed buffer over time helps improve net PnL on breakout systems. If you get whipped all the time then your breakout range is incorrect.
I have found some value in using something a little more dynamic using short term ATR's and also comparing yesterdays closing range to todays opening (maybe not so relevant for FX but very important on indices) when deciding whether to take a break or not.

 

[Calvin]

Can someone please tell me what is meant by the "direction of the first breakout", cause I'm a beginner, and would like to try this system. Does it mean that; for example if the difference between the open price and highest is greater than difference between open and lowest price reached so far, then you should buy - if that makes sense.
Thanks a lot
Fez

Fez,

I could be (and often am) wrong, but I thought the breakout was when the price moved beyond either the highest or the lowest price achieved in the 7-10am period, regardless of the start price. The suggestion seems to be that an additional buffer of a few pips be added (to raise the high price trigger, or lower the low one) in order to make sure it is a 'real' break out, as opposed to a fake one.

That's my understanding, and if I've gotten the wrong end of the stick, perhaps someone could put me straight too...

Calvin.

 

[waverider]

Spot on Calvin

 

[waverider]

Thanks for the suggestions TWalker, but how exactly do you apply them - can you give an example perhaps?


"I have found some value in using something a little more dynamic using short term ATR's and also comparing yesterdays closing range to todays opening (maybe not so relevant for FX but very important on indices) when deciding whether to take a break or not."

 

[ferrrris]

Thanks for clearing that up Calvin. Will give this system a try.

 

[TWI]

Day to Day the breakout range varies depending on volatility. If you use a fixed buffer you are actually just fitting this to an average volatility. Using ATR's is just more dynamic way of doing this although even this will often not improve upon a simple breakout. I have been able to cut out some whips trading a system that takes multiple breakout orders each day . If the breakout period range is relatively small it is useful to use an ATR of longer period. I have found it useful for first order of the day. You really need to experiment a little, I have found ATR a good variable to use in a few places where a static value was originally used. Think it may be very relevant for systems that only take 1 order per day.
As for yesterdays close. If the market opens gap up or down it is good to account for this fact and set breakouts above/below previous close accordingly otherwise you will get filled when market is merely filling the gap. This mornings FTSE and Dax action may be a good example. In general it is worth waiting to see if price continues through gap.

 

[theknifemac]

Day to Day the breakout range varies depending on volatility. If you use a fixed buffer you are actually just fitting this to an average volatility. Using ATR's is just more dynamic way of doing this although even this will often not improve upon a simple breakout. I have been able to cut out some whips trading a system that takes multiple breakout orders each day . If the breakout period range is relatively small it is useful to use an ATR of longer period. I have found it useful for first order of the day. You really need to experiment a little, I have found ATR a good variable to use in a few places where a static value was originally used. Think it may be very relevant for systems that only take 1 order per day.
As for yesterdays close. If the market opens gap up or down it is good to account for this fact and set breakouts above/below previous close accordingly otherwise you will get filled when market is merely filling the gap. This mornings FTSE and Dax action may be a good example. In general it is worth waiting to see if price continues through gap.

Anyone looked at doing this for individual stocks rather than the indices / currencies ?

 

[ANDRE17]

Hi All,

I downloaded 3rddawns excellent spreadsheet and started tinkering around with the parameters and was truly amazed at the effects this had on overall profit for the system.

These were my 'optimum' settings (and before anyone reminds me yes, I know this is a 'fit' for the historic data).

EUR/$

Analysis time frame 02.30 to 05.30 (US time)
Stoploss 23
Pips to trigger point 12
Stop time 16 (18 gave slightly better result)
Profit target Infinite

This gave 46% winning bets with total profit of 1623 pips or 30 pips per day. Biggest drawdown was a mere 96 pips.

Simply changing the 'pips to trigger point' from 12 to 9 knocks 233 pips off the profit!

Does anyone have data for April so I can test this? If not I will try and download it from somewhere.

Kev.

hi there pips to trigger point and and stop time ? could yoyu give me a quick explanation please .thank u

 

[trendie]

hi JonnyT,

your website appears to be "page not available".

please confirm monthly updates still going to be sent to clients.

thanks.

 

[TWI]

I think SpotOn probably had a tough time of it over the last few weeks. These sideways markets are not good for breakout strategies.

 

[TWI]

For those who remember the SpotOn system of JT from last year. Here is the latest equity curve. Despite a rather horrific draw it does appear to be clawing back to the previous equity highs. I am not sure anybody, unless insane, would have been able to stomach the downside but will be interesting to see if we get a return on the year. It certainly has done far better than the SIBKIS system which was also discussed around the same time.

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice one tw..

btw, its only a 25% drawdown assuming a fixed contract size... probably near 30-40 if trading fixed fraction.

there are worse systems out there....

FC

 

[neil]

Drawdown nerves

For those who remember the SpotOn system of JT from last year. Here is the latest equity curve. Despite a rather horrific draw it does appear to be clawing back to the previous equity highs. I am not sure anybody, unless insane, would have been able to stomach the downside but will be interesting to see if we get a return on the year. It certainly has done far better than the SIBKIS system which was also discussed around the same time.

Thats just it TW, the drawdown, on any "system" not just "Spot On" can be deep enough to cause many traders to throw in the towel. Nerves, faith and cash are needed to follow a system. I notice Sibkis has died a death on Moneytec as have many systems. It seems many systems start off with with a big fanfare, many posts, cries of the converted, hand clapping followed by despondency as the draw downs kick in, then disciples abandon the system in droves and the system itself ends up in the graveyard of rusting trading grails, whereas the former disciples gallop off to the next "system" hailed as the new discovery in the trading firmament ( witness the abandoned "systems," lying legs up, on the floors of the Moneytec forums). However, there is no harm in tesing systems for one may find bits that suit one's style of trading which in turn gives one that necessary edge for success.