Is the probability of my losing money 60%

Mr. Charts said:
Are you for real, or just a returning multi-nick trying to wind people up?
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I am completely for real. I am not a beginner beginner. I am only a beginner in the sense that I believe I found my way and beginning my journey. I am honest in every way and don't believe in BS. I don't ever do multi-nick.
 
Mr. Charts said:
Tony, I'm sure the memories of some BJs are much more enjoyable....
The nick is probably an attempt at disinformation, being the other side of the weighted coin to the wind-up.
Richard
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Yes... that's what I was doing too :whistling
 
BeginnerJoe said:
I am completely for real. I am not a beginner beginner. I am only a beginner in the sense that I believe I found my way and beginning my journey. I am honest in every way and don't believe in BS.
Click to expand...
Gotcha' ...ha ha ha!!!!!
 
It was winning. But I have a greed weakness. So I am paying for the lesson now. My strategy hasn't been perfected yet. Nevertheless I gained new insight from the experience. The environment and the immediate out look for it is horrible. So I may have to clear the slate and wait for better times. Things are not going to improve until the sharp sell off coming our way.
 
The short position I took out to created the straddle turned out to be useless and I got rid of it at a significant loss. I knew it was late when I took the position. I guess the fear of the stock falling to 0 pence was the cause of the idiocy..

I am now long again with more positions opened at session lows. Will the price fall again for the 7th day tomorrow ? The coin toss has given me 6 heads. 50/50 for another one or will the preceding events change that probability ?
 
The market is not a coin. Movements are not random like tossing a coin so any approach based on anything as simple as a coin toss is doomed in the long run.
There are certainly statistics related to successive days of one directional moves, but they are related to market action, not to pure chance.
 
In addition, your emotional influence on your trading guarantees you will be 100% certain to fail as a trader unless you devise a better methodology and one in which you do NOT trade with any emotional influence.
 
Good points. Emotions are not tamed over night. So I am still working on that along with my trading technique. Everything is work in progress. Overall I haven't lost money I started with, lost some profits yes. It's too early for 100% fail.
 
Mr. Charts said:
The market is not a coin. Movements are not random like tossing a coin so any approach based on anything as simple as a coin toss is doomed in the long run..
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Well I've been taking random entries for the past 8 years and doing perfectly well....

Not as well as you, I have loads of losing trades :p
 
the hare said:
Well I've been taking random entries for the past 8 years and doing perfectly well....

Not as well as you, I have loads of losing trades :p
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You would do with random trades.
But are they random long or short in a trending instrument ? Thought not :p
And of course I have losing trades !
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Good points. Emotions are not tamed over night. So I am still working on that along with my trading technique. Everything is work in progress. Overall I haven't lost money I started with, lost some profits yes. It's too early for 100% fail.
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Perhaps find out a intermediate trend and just keep the position open for a month or more as long as you see that the trend still exists? What do you have to lose?

You would notice that your profit and return levels would increase. Good luck with your journey.
 
delusion.jpg
 
Finally, the price has turned, and my buys at the session lows yesterday are coming into profit. As I did not have the balls to take bigger positions at the bottom, the overall trade will still be a loser as I continue to see a poor market environment that will knock the price back down rather quickly. Today's mission is to get the feck out as best as I could.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
Finally, the price has turned, and my buys at the session lows yesterday are coming into profit. As I did not have the balls to take bigger positions at the bottom, the overall trade will still be a loser as I continue to see a poor market environment that will knock the price back down rather quickly. Today's mission is to get the feck out as best as I could.
Click to expand...

joe

I can't spot what share you are playing with, but how is your latest addition doing now?

So far as your no-stop, add to loser strategy is concerned it may come good in the end (this time!!) but you will have a lot of money tied up via margin in the meantime which precludes taking further opportunities.

Since you seem dead set against stops you could have tried hedging with a short on the index at the point where you would otherwise consider a stop. If your share was resilient against the market that hedge itself would prove profitable and even if the share proved weaker than the market it would have at least lessened the damage.

good trading

jon
 
The price rallied and then fizzled out and started going down again. I finally called it quits at the positive side of my balance break even point. The whole series of trades cost me time and effort but no lost in money. The trades were profitable on the stock fundamentals but sunk by the macro economics. I didn't care much for macro economics until now. Learnt something new.
 
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