Is the EURO finished?

[Lord Flasheart]

Genuinely, European people believe that now Forex Market death has arrived now because of unpredictable market breakpoints. But, I would like to tell you that in Forex Trading this kind of obstacles can happen eventually. So, no matter it is last but EURO will bounce back again.

eh,what you on about

 

[ZaBu]

The gereral population have a greater understanding, than you demonstrate through your feeble post.

If that were true, then how do you explain the relative lack of protests that have been seen so far? And the protests have been more about austerity and cuts than a desire to leave the Euro.

Right wing parties are gaining ground due to their anti-euro stance promising to leave the euro.They do not think about the euro in the same way as you do about yours.

Right wing parties have been growing since the 90s. Difficult times usually see a shift to the right.

After all that it seems you agree that political pressure is what will make the difference.

Don't you just love the internet.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I think you credit the general population with more understanding than they have.

The Cyprus issue isn't a Euro banking system phenomenon - there is nothing to stop any Govt. deciding to tax their citizens in any way they see fit.



The Euro will be fine for as long as voting populations don't see the Euro as the problem (or at least part of the problem). The Euro is a political currency. It will last as long as it is more comfortable for politicians to be in rather than out. Political self interest will be what undoes the currency. All the time voters don't link austerity, taxes, bank bailouts, etc. with the currency itself then there is no real pressure on politicians.

I used to live in mainland Europe - the Euro is their currency. They think about their currency in the same way we think about ours.



Exactly :cheesy: This weekend has been excellent PR for mattresses, domestic safes, Swiss banks and property in Florida, etc.

I'm thinking more in the perspective of the bankers. If the bankers don't want anything to do with the Euro it will collapse regardless of public sentiment.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Genuinely, European people believe that now Forex Market death has arrived now because of unpredictable market breakpoints. But, I would like to tell you that in Forex Trading this kind of obstacles can happen eventually. So, no matter it is last but EURO will bounce back again.

I do expect it to bounce back temporarily after we hit the next bottom but the more important question is whether or not the Euro will become over-saturated with cash held by dissatisfied currency holders who have to hold the currency out of necessity, not profit potential.

It seems apparent the Euro currency is a pump up job. Just check the basic charts on it.

The USD on the other hand is free, strong, dependable and lucrative as ever.

 

[ZaBu]

I'm thinking more in the perspective of the bankers. If the bankers don't want anything to do with the Euro it will collapse regardless of public sentiment.

Ah sorry, seems I misunderstood. My bad.

Apologies for taking the thread off on a bit of a tangent.

 

[justtrader]

If that were true, then how do you explain the relative lack of protests that have been seen so far? And the protests have been more about austerity and cuts than a desire to leave the Euro.

The protests about austerity are linked to the Euro.
look at the placards the Greeks were waving blaming the Germans and Brussels for their plight.(although their plight is a completely different story)
Also explains why the right wing parties were so popular when they stood on a leave euro platform.
In Italy a "CLOWN" won 25% of the vote by making leaving he euro his central premise.

 

[ZaBu]

The protests about austerity are linked to the Euro.
look at the placards the Greeks were waving blaming the Germans and Brussels for their plight.(although their plight is a completely different story)
Also explains why the right wing parties were so popular when they stood on a leave euro platform.

I think we see the same things but just reach a different conclusion. I don't view blaming the Germans and Brussels to be the same thing as blaming the currency. When it came down to it the Greeks voted to stay in the club.

In Italy a "CLOWN" won 25% of the vote by making leaving he euro his central premise.

I thought the central premise was breaking open the Italian political system.

I also thought he was proposing a referendum on the Euro rather than backing a definite exit. I read somewhere that as it turned out even this wasn't official party policy.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

The protests about austerity are linked to the Euro.
look at the placards the Greeks were waving blaming the Germans and Brussels for their plight.(although their plight is a completely different story)
Also explains why the right wing parties were so popular when they stood on a leave euro platform.
In Italy a "CLOWN" won 25% of the vote by making leaving he euro his central premise.

Wow that's news to me, sounds like the EUR is truly doomed.

Personally I think European countries are better off with their own currencies. The GBP and CHF are appropriate mediators.

European culture is rich and diverse, their financial system is as well. I don't understand why they would have any need for a single currency, the USD is adequate enough for that task. And why any small peaceful and economically stable country in Europe would want to be tied to the fate and disasters of the other larger countries is beyond me.

 

[Liquid validity]

Germany still needs her markets in the sun drenched profligate South though she is more reluctant to lend those "lazy" countries the money to buy her products.
We might well see a refocusing of German export markets in the coming months and years.
If populations in other countries are also robbed of their savings to appease the Teutonic juggernaut it doesn't exactly bode well for the further political and social integration of Europe.
Maybe another grouping might coalesce around an increasingly anti-EU Britain.

For now at least, although military exports to Greece aside (one reason for
tolerating the Greeks fiscal fiasco) the PIIGS (obviously Ireland not included)
are not the primary German export markets:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFig...ent/ForeignTrade/TradingPartners/Current.html
Germany Exports
Although its fair to say as a collective whole, its still pretty significant.

I agree, the German focus is firmly on the BRICs for the future:
Growth Markets: German Exports to the Bric Region Growing
New Record for German Exports Expected for 2012 Despite Euro Crisis - SPIEGEL ONLINE

A few flies in the ointment aside:
World Trade: German Exports Fall, Chinese Exports Explode - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Time to short Germany as ?miracle economy? ends - MarketWatch
Which I believe are only temporary, I mean seriously, the Chinese may clone
BMW X5's, but there is never going to be an export market for them.
China has a few weaknesses potentially waiting to upset the progression
of their export economy, likely property bubble:
China's Push to Cool Down Housing Raises Questions - NYTimes.com

Also, sooner or later, increased wage demands, could have a significant
impact on the pool of cheap labour China currently enjoys:
http://www.accenture.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/PDF/Accenture_Wage_Increases_in_China.pdf

Germany on the other hand are certainly not dependent on a cheap pool of
labour, indeed, their advantage is simple - quality engineering.
The demand for that is increasingly global, I don't see that changing.

 

[Liquid validity]

You may be right... the problem with macro economics is that everything sounds feasible and possible since we can move more and more into qualitative territory. Definitely worth considering as an FX trader, but I try to avoid it in general since we all tend to sound justified in our answers and then I realise I don't know jack all about the future of such vast enterprises.

Agreed.
Anyone who is consistently accurate in their prognostications believes in their own genius, but that's only a mask for a run of good luck

As a prognostication hedge, its impossible not to agree with those two posts,
despite my post above

 

[cablemonster]

Is it finished? The truth is nobody knows. Ultimately it will be decided by whether there is political union. Merkin has election in autumn. Until they sort out a way to print euros they are shafted. I am sure they will find a way.