Anyway...you (most likely) haven't read the thread - I mentioned already that I am not looking for a job as a trader explicitly but as well a software developer and a risk analyst or as they call them: "quants". Last but not least, by the time I worked at a hedge fund in Hong Kong an year and a half ago I have personally developed and advised the front office a strategy which was a pure static classical arbitrage and it gave a return of over 12% for the first year, then I quit and the fund continued using other strategies and it ended up in...pure bancruptcy. I know one year is not enough to prove a strategy but...read the first sentence again. Finally, results aren't that easy...see EMH, Nick Leason, Bob Merton, Jesse Livermore, etc - most (if not all) people lose in the long term.
Anyway...you (most likely) haven't read the thread - I mentioned already that I am not looking for a job as a trader explicitly but as well a software developer and a risk analyst or as they call them: "quants". Last but not least, by the time I worked at a hedge fund in Hong Kong an year and a half ago I have personally developed and advised the front office a strategy which was a pure static classical arbitrage and it gave a return of over 12% for the first year, then I quit and the fund continued using other strategies and it ended up in...pure bancruptcy. I know one year is not enough to prove a strategy but...read the first sentence again. Finally, results aren't that easy...see EMH, Nick Leason, Bob Merton, Jesse Livermore, etc - most (if not all) people lose in the long term.
Depth Trade
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If this was all true, we would not be having this conversation, now would we?
I am not trying to be a jerk, you're the one putting yourself out here.
P.S.
I am sorry you think that trading is a peace of cake compared to programming.
Everyone...and i mean everyone given enough time can learn how to solve partial differential equations (solvable diff. equations of course...) or write trading platforms in C++...but in my tests unfortunately nothing can beat the market in the long term unless you have an insider information or unless you find some misspricings to engage in classical arbitrage and earn...say 10%(in some very idealized case...) per year but no more - which means that the everyday trader simply cannot rely on arbitrage. Emerging markets are another...cup of tea - it's simply passive investing and every indian guy (no offense to the country) can learn how to "manage" such portofilio - though estimating the risk in such cases will be an impossible task. So...I've written software to test strategies based on historical data - for example: If you have started using the Williams oscillator on 18th december 1987 - then how much money would you have had 2 years later" - the answer according to the simulation was - zero. Not a bright future for the technical analysis, isn't it?
Now...i am sure you (or someone) here will tell me that technical indicators can be interpreted in various ways - but they can't - in the case of the oscillator mentioned above - it gives directions/signals on what to do when you have the "right" values - so i make the program calculate these values and "buy" or "sell" against a database - it seemed that $100k of virtual money turn into 0 after thousands of trades - something that blindfolded average technical "experts" out there cannot see.
It's about the same when it comes to fndamental analysis - you just need to save you some hard time and instead of losing money after 100 trades - just test your strategy over historical data in about 2 hours and save your real money.
HowardCohodas
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Your post is what my military friends call a "target rich environment."
With all the reasons you list on why making money in the market is not possible, how do you think you are going to sell yourself to a firm whose mission is to make money in the markets? Not every successful firm makes money only on insider information and arbitrage.
Why isn't your stint at the Hong Kong hedge fund marketable to your target employers?
With modern technology, you no longer need to be a C or VB or ... programmer to test a strategy. I'm a retired software engineer and I can program in those and many other languages. However, to test a strategy quickly I now use a platform where I can design and test a strategy by selecting icons representing market metrics, connecting them with point and click and supplying my own setup constants. You might check out Prodigio. It has saved me a lot of development and test time. The environment can even be used to build a robot, if that's your thing.
Backtesting has serious limitations. Paper trading also has some compromises. Not until you trade live (with money) do you know if you have something that might be useful.
Lastly, it is in fact possible to make 8%-10% per month. I back-tested my methods with 5 years of data. I then paper traded my methods for 5 months. I've been trading live for over 3 months in a pretty ugly market. People locally who have watched my results now ask me to teach my methods. If you have winning methods, I don't see why you can't reproduce this scenario.
Thanks for the input but anyway...here is why:
Many people have to pay off mortgage (including myself)...so suppose like most average people (including myself) someone has a few thousands bucks as a "starting capital" - how much would you make even after 6months with 8% per month, provided you take advantage of what Einstein calls the greatest power in the universe and Bill Gates calls it a magic - in other words...the compound interest.?
Let's see:
1.08^6*10000 = $15 868.7432.
If you make 10% monthly and compound again each month:
17 715.61
Not enough...so again unless you have some gold making formula that earns me 50%...i am not buying - but gold making formula doesn't exist or if it did - i am not going to tell you that and you are also not going to tell me...
HowardCohodas
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Perhaps I have a language problem, being a Yank and all.
My personal story was meant to be a counterpoint to your assertion. It was also meant to illustrate how you might succeed in selling yourself, not as a method of making a living with a small amount of starting capital. I'm retired and have been lucky enough to have saved sufficiently that I can trade with less than 20% of my assets and meet my cash flow needs with my methods. If my methods fail in the long run, I will not be materially harmed by losing that 20%, my ego notwithstanding.
You have to start somewhere. Look inside yourself and decide what you want. Take the time to develop the steps to get there. My illustrations are not intended to be prescriptive, but to help you think outside the box and expose you to some of the possibilities. I have mentored many young folk, and you are not unusual for someone your age. The question is "What are you prepared to do to separate yourself from the crowd and become successful by your own hand."
My favorite signature is "If it is to be, it is up to me." I even have it taped to my screen border to keep it in front of me for continuous motivation.
Live long and proper.
hm thanks for the advice...and good luck to you 2.
