Is Market-Profile the best method for trader?

[Rick_Naish]

I have been using Market Profile, and more specifically the Value Area for some time now. I really try not to miss the “80% play” when price opens out of the VA and then gets into it. Does anyone have an excel spread sheet that will calculate the VA levels? I have attached on that I came across but it is just a cosmetic version that doesn’t actually grab the price and volume data and then compute. If anyone has any thoughts as to where I could find a working excel sheet it would be greatly appreciated.

Good trading,

Rick

 

[YouAreNotFree]

What's the 80% play? Are you expecting price, once it enters the VA, to test the other end?

 

[A-Malpel]

.... Does anyone have an excel spread sheet that will calculate the VA levels? ...

Hello Rick,

Sorry, but my own software (Malpel-CHARTS) calculate VA levels automaticly. So, it is why I didn't need Excel (please note, I don't want make any advertisment/publicity here ! ).

In addition, I don't know how you make, because the VA change all time, with the price, during the session trading day.
Do you refresh all time ?

Regards
AM

 

[A-Malpel]

What's the 80% play? Are you expecting price, once it enters the VA, to test the other end?

Hello YANF,

You different strategies ... it is tha is the question !
You can play in a responsive mode or in a defensive mode ... That is to say : With the trend, a new trend ... or against trend. ... And you can deduct what play you must do, with all the shape, open, rotation ... of the prices in Market Profile.

Regards
AM

 

[Rick_Naish]

What's the 80% play? Are you expecting price, once it enters the VA, to test the other end?

Yes, that's correct. It's called the 80% play b/c of its high probability. In my experience it's not 80% but at least 70%. There are a couple of conditions to qualify the setup. I'll use the ES futures for an example. 1) Price opens outside the value area (on a gap) and forms a complete 15min bar outside of the VA. 2) Price then enters the VA and a 15min bar settles inside the value area. 3) The expectation is that price will continue to trade all the way across the entire VA. It doesn't setup all that often but when it does is not a setup to pass over. Perhaps the most important feature of the trade is that it covers a great deal of range (read potential profit) and has an objective price target.

Of course, the Value Area that is being used is the one set by the prior session.
I
'm still looking for an excel program that will calculate the Value area high and Value area low from the prior day's price action.

Rick

 

[ferranfont]

Market Profile is an excellent new approach to undestand the markets. Just consider that is the instrument that hedge funds use. Visit the following website to see real trades and learn how to use:
marketprofilescalp.blogspot.com, I also advice to read James Dalton books.

 

[A-Malpel]

Market Profile is an excellent new approach to undestand the markets. Just consider that is the instrument that hedge funds use. Visit the following website to see real trades and learn how to use:
marketprofilescalp.blogspot.com, I also advice to read James Dalton books.

In march,to our event, James Dalton coming was very enjoyed by all our public, .... for his 2 one hour conferences, his book public interview, and his 4 hours paid seminar.
In our next september event : Free Paris Trading Show (21-22 sept.) we would try to go one step ahead, in studying a new tool as : Footprint (MarketDelta copyright). It is really impressive, because in linking it with MP, you can react more quickly to change in the orders flews.

Have a good day.
André Malpel

 

[Pipsaholic]

I find market profile highly accurate especially weekly and daily VA Unfair highs n lows however its 1 part of the jigsaw when looking for sentiment for the week/day.

Always remember not 1 method or concept will make it for you collective concepts will make you a better trader.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Does anyone have an excel spread sheet that will calculate the VA levels?

i grab my daily VA values from mypivots:
Market Profile Daily Values

 

[rathcoole_exile]

What's the 80% play? Are you expecting price, once it enters the VA, to test the other end?

there is a certain "statistic" bandied about that says that if a 30m candle closes inside the Value Area from outside, then there is an 80% chance that price will continue to transverse the entire VA

The earlier in the session this happens, is obviously better.


**********************************************************************************
actually, I've just re-checked the "rules", and it talks about two consecutive 30m bars, although the second doesn't have to close, just has to also be inside the VA ......

"2 Bracket Rule – When looking at the brackets (30 minute
bars) it is important to understand if the market is in the value
area for one bar and then opens inside the value area on the
2nd bar the 80% rule is satisfied. There is no need to wait for
the second bracket to complete for the rule to be satisfied.
Conservative traders may want to wait for the second bar to
close but they may be limiting the profit potential of the trade"

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Y2) Price then enters the VA and a 15min bar settles inside the value area.

everything I have ever studied about MP/VA states the bar should be 30m not 15m ?

 

[rathcoole_exile]

this is quite a nice simple introduction: http://www.stator-afm.com/support-files/Article_Gopalakrishnan_MarketProfileBasics.pdf

 

[Rick_Naish]

this is quite a nice simple introduction: http://www.stator-afm.com/support-files/Article_Gopalakrishnan_MarketProfileBasics.pdf

The classic interpretation of market profile time slices the day into 30min data points (TPOs) and I believe that keeping things consistent is why all of the texts use a 30min period to trigger the 80% play.

Since prices can move rapidly in the first 30-60mins of the trading day I prefer to use a 15min close to confirm and trigger the value area play. In the light volume, retail devoid, markets that we have had in the last year more times than not the majority of the price movement comes in the first 60mins. I don’t want to miss 25% of the best part of the day waiting for a 30min candle to close.

Think of it this way. The Black and Scholes options pricing model is the standard on the street. BUT is there an options desk that has not tweaked and refined the model to their advantage? No, every desk has their own version of the benchmark model. Use the value area play as the benchmark and make it your own by tailoring your entry and exit to suit your performance and risk goals.

Rick

 

[rathcoole_exile]

The classic interpretation of market profile time slices the day into 30min data points (TPOs) and I believe that keeping things consistent is why all of the texts use a 30min period to trigger the 80% play.

Since prices can move rapidly in the first 30-60mins of the trading day I prefer to use a 15min close to confirm and trigger the value area play. In the light volume, retail devoid, markets that we have had in the last year more times than not the majority of the price movement comes in the first 60mins. I don’t want to miss 25% of the best part of the day waiting for a 30min candle to close.

Think of it this way. The Black and Scholes options pricing model is the standard on the street. BUT is there an options desk that has not tweaked and refined the model to their advantage? No, every desk has their own version of the benchmark model. Use the value area play as the benchmark and make it your own by tailoring your entry and exit to suit your performance and risk goals.

Rick

if you wanna cook a flapjack with rhubard and call it a brownie, it's entirely up to you my friend
I was just stating a fact:
"everything I have ever studied about MP/VA states the bar should be 30m"

 

[DionysusToast]

if you wanna cook a flapjack with rhubard and call it a brownie, it's entirely up to you my friend
I was just stating a fact:
"everything I have ever studied about MP/VA states the bar should be 30m"

Then you haven't read the good stuff.

The Profile charts are just a part of a greater trading genre which is focused on value and the specifics of auction theory.

If you look at a lot of Daltons work - such as his "Field Of Vision" DVDs or the book "Markets In Profile", you'll see that the field has matured somewhat and become a lot more nuanced.

Dalton himself says on many occasions that the 30 minutes isn't key to MP. It is the understanding of value and auctions that is the key.

BTW - isn't your lodge over Krungthep Krita way? That's where my house is. You should pop over, esp if you are interested in MP. I might have some goodies for you....

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Thank you Khun Pedro.
I bow to your superior knowledge and wisdom.

And yes, our Lodge is at Nawamin, Bang Kapi, not far from Krungthep Krita.
We don't have a meeting until the end of August, but I'll be sure to give you a bell.

cheers

 

[WilleeMac]

Very much appreciate the info, links etc

-Bill

 

[malaguti]

But I think market profile is the best method for trader. Because without learning or understanding market profile you cannot do noting good in trading..
So i hope that you will try your best to learn market profile.

Couldn't have put it any more succinctly if I tried