Is it true, you can trade without indicators and candlesticks?

[Prawnsandwich]

Now - I find the following a tad unfair...



PS - why not send megamuel an email with that simple chart showing him how to daytrade ?




OK - but why not send to Meganuel ? He seems like a nice chap.



I mean, if it's so simple...



It really does sound like the guy needs help...




Aaaaahhhh :whistling

Don't tell me - that really simple chart you could post contains a super-secret 'edge' which, if discovered would be adopted by so many people that your top secret edge would disappear.

Right..

Well this post shows you up as the character you are....

What you have done here, in your usual smug and twerpy tone, is to cut and paste sections of my posts in response to you and in separate responses to Megamuel, into one overall response so that it gives the impression that I am giving Megamuel a hard time....or am unwilling to give him assistance.....

Therefore you are using Megamuel, who is clearly an honest and decent chap and who is at a difficult time in his life and who is having a genuine go at trading, to further your own ridiculous arguments....

Why don't you address the responses I made to your posts instead of dragging Megamuel into the argument..argue your own points instead of just spouting / repeating the usual nonsense, selective cut and pasting of old posts to misrepresent what has been posted....

Pathetic.

 

[kimo'sabby]

OK - sarcasm aside. Let us now forget DOM & T&S and remember what it represents.

It represents using the cause of a move, whereas TA is based on the effects of the cause only.

Let's say a stock had moved down to it's 200 Daily MA at $20 from it's prior resistance at $30. It bounced off the 200 Daily MA to the upside with a large range bar WITH VOLUME, it moved up to $23, a reasonable 15% move on the day.

There's a lot of TA traders would consider this a bullish move, say that 'everything is in the price' and go ahead and take a position. This is trading based on the effect.

Now - let's consider that the cause of this move to $23 was that a competitor had announced it's intention to buy the company at $23 a share.

Knowing the cause, you would rightly surmise that one of the following is possible.

1 - The takeover goes ahead, shareholders get $23 per share(plus any additional sweeteners that TA traders have no clue about at all and could take a whole new thread).
2 - The takeover is thwarted and price drops back to where it was
3 - The buyer of the company ups their bid and you actually make a profit on the trade.

Knowing the cause for a move like this would have you passing on a trade that would most likely tie up your trading capital for zero reward.

From this point forwards, I'll not mention DOM/T&S again because it really was just there to illustrate a point.

The point being that you the cause of a move is more important than blindly jumping on the move itself.

In return, why don't the TA proponents agree to actually post some arguments FOR TA other than "it just works", "there's lots of TA books", "lots of people on internet forums say they are profitable with it"

As a guideline consider starting off with why TA should work. My premise is that the concept is flawed, so not matter how much of it there is, it's all based on a flawed concept - which says that analysis of past price movements will cause traders to react in a certain way.

Of course, all of these other traders haven't read the TA books and so don't know you are using TA to get one up on them. You will therefore take a 'bite' out of the trend but there will always be a 'bag holder' there for when you exit.

TA works, infact i'll prove it.....over one year.

The UK national average wage is about 25k, give me a 25k journal.....and i'll make 25k in one year based on MAs.

You will be proved wrong.

 

[forker]

OK - sarcasm aside. Let us now forget DOM & T&S and remember what it represents.

It represents using the cause of a move, whereas TA is based on the effects of the cause only.

Let's say a stock had moved down to it's 200 Daily MA at $20 from it's prior resistance at $30. It bounced off the 200 Daily MA to the upside with a large range bar WITH VOLUME, it moved up to $23, a reasonable 15% move on the day.

There's a lot of TA traders would consider this a bullish move, say that 'everything is in the price' and go ahead and take a position. This is trading based on the effect.

Now - let's consider that the cause of this move to $23 was that a competitor had announced it's intention to buy the company at $23 a share.

Knowing the cause, you would rightly surmise that one of the following is possible.

1 - The takeover goes ahead, shareholders get $23 per share(plus any additional sweeteners that TA traders have no clue about at all and could take a whole new thread).
2 - The takeover is thwarted and price drops back to where it was
3 - The buyer of the company ups their bid and you actually make a profit on the trade.

Knowing the cause for a move like this would have you passing on a trade that would most likely tie up your trading capital for zero reward.

From this point forwards, I'll not mention DOM/T&S again because it really was just there to illustrate a point.

The point being that you the cause of a move is more important than blindly jumping on the move itself.

In return, why don't the TA proponents agree to actually post some arguments FOR TA other than "it just works", "there's lots of TA books", "lots of people on internet forums say they are profitable with it"

As a guideline consider starting off with why TA should work. My premise is that the concept is flawed, so not matter how much of it there is, it's all based on a flawed concept - which says that analysis of past price movements will cause traders to react in a certain way.

Of course, all of these other traders haven't read the TA books and so don't know you are using TA to get one up on them. You will therefore take a 'bite' out of the trend but there will always be a 'bag holder' there for when you exit.

Tim Morge has been a TA trader for almost 40 years, manages a fund.
Jim over at FX Factory has been trading for over 2 decades shows simple TA techniques that make him money throughout the year.

There are more examples but needless to mention them. The point i am trying to make is that TA works for them. If , by your standards, one were to investigate the source of their success, perhaps one would conclude they are freaks of nature since TA doesn't work! But the fact remains it works freaks or not.
You continuously request examples of how TA is a success yet if i had to post examples, it could be assumed the charts are sugar coated over past data making them meaningless. If you were to post evidence of the DOM, the same assumption could be made.
You are expending much of your energy dismembering TA in general which is very much an unproductive contribution to what is considered a source of information for studying traders. Wouldn't you be better off shutting your mouth about how biased you are with a complete lack of evidence supporting your claims. Don't you think your time would be better served if you gave up your proclaimed method of making money to aspiring traders instead of your current actions? or is it perhaps a case of "its a secret that you don't want to get out as you don't want to world to clone your methods".

This thread is getting tiring and boring as things have turned from what started as a constructive debate to ego massaging apartheid.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

you give the impression of "mindless TA" guys who all exhibit systematic/predictable market behavior capable of manipulation, when in the example you've given above, the guys "stealing money from them" by trading the other way, are exhibiting the same systematic/predictable behavior which is just as easily manipulated by a predator looking to control the market with size.

I think what you are really saying is that newer traders will often look for a quick n easy rule/indicator/method to apply to make consistent $$ in the market as quickly as they possibly can, which can easily be deduced by more experienced traders and taken advantage of.



This has been said a number of times, yet no-one has come forward and offered any meat to this argument. There is plenty of "it just works" on here, though.

The concept of TA is a bit like driving with your eye on the rear view mirror.

Not offered any meat to this argument ? I pointed out to you the Mr Charts system posted on this forum, and also suggested the Pozzyp thread. Trader Dantes thread was also mentioned.#

"Redart posted in Post 197 :
I would love to know what DT (who I think is a smart chap and I like his posts) thinks of the success enjoyed by various posters on this forum over the years (some quite recently) who post realtime journals and do rather well over the long haul who claim to employ simple TA to make their trading decisions?

Theres too many to mention and my mines a little blank at the monent after a day of hard labour with a sledge hammer, but SH-101, chilltrader, Gamma, LordFlasheart all spring to mind.

If memory serves me correct, these are people who have posted lots and lots of realtime calls (im not including certain posters who just tell us how good they are and use TA but never post realtime calls)"

You have lost all credibility and I'm not going to waste any more time to respond to your mindless drivel.

 

[barjon]

ok, toastie

1. daily time frame - candles drawn on mid-price - rules for longs (shorts vice versa)
2. 3+ candle retracement in established uptrend not exceeding 50% of last move on the close (ie: from last swing low)
3. Third or subsequent candle in retracement a hammer (shooting star for shorts)
4. enter long when offer exceeds high of hammer - stoploss when bid takes out low of hammer.

Better not confuse matters with how to manage things from there - just be content with direction?

Here's the latest example I've got so you get the picture. It's not a very good one since the gaps made it difficult to trade. Direction was good though

jon

Here you go then, toastie

I'll trade this one TA mechanically - you let me know what you're going to do.

cheers

jon

 

[DionysusToast]

Tim Morge has been a TA trader for almost 40 years, manages a fund.
Jim over at FX Factory has been trading for over 2 decades shows simple TA techniques that make him money throughout the year.

There are more examples but needless to mention them. The point i am trying to make is that TA works for them. If , by your standards, one were to investigate the source of their success, perhaps one would conclude they are freaks of nature since TA doesn't work! But the fact remains it works freaks or not.
You continuously request examples of how TA is a success yet if i had to post examples, it could be assumed the charts are sugar coated over past data making them meaningless. If you were to post evidence of the DOM, the same assumption could be made.
You are expending much of your energy dismembering TA in general which is very much an unproductive contribution to what is considered a source of information for studying traders. Wouldn't you be better off shutting your mouth about how biased you are with a complete lack of evidence supporting your claims. Don't you think your time would be better served if you gave up your proclaimed method of making money to aspiring traders instead of your current actions? or is it perhaps a case of "its a secret that you don't want to get out as you don't want to world to clone your methods".

This thread is getting tiring and boring as things have turned from what started as a constructive debate to ego massaging apartheid.

OK - first thing - if this thread is getting boring or tiring - leave it alone. There is no reason to read something that frustrates you.

Secondly - you have missed the point about the DOM/T&S examples. They simply illustrate one point. The point is that the reason for a move is more important that the pattern it forms. This is why TA fails. It is a futile attempt at analyzing the market without context.

Third - you can pull out names of people claiming to be succesful with TA all you like. What I have done in many posts is to show instances of how TA will fail and what is happening behind the scenes that made it fail. What you have done in return and says "well, this guy uses it". Do you see the difference? This is not the first time we have seen this attempt at defending TA here.

It seems that no-one in this thread can use TA to show that TA works.

Isn't this strange considering how strongly people obviously feel about it, based on the replies here?

 

[DionysusToast]

TA works, infact i'll prove it.....over one year.

The UK national average wage is about 25k, give me a 25k journal.....and i'll make 25k in one year based on MAs.

You will be proved wrong.

You are welcome to start a journal any time.

Are you going to trade live, with real cash or is this going to be a simulated adventure?

 

[DionysusToast]

Here you go then, toastie

I'll trade this one TA mechanically - you let me know what you're going to do.

cheers

jon

Good luck with it. Can I ask how this stock came to your attention ? Was it on a watch list ? Come up in the news ? Scan ?

 

[DionysusToast]

Not offered any meat to this argument ? I pointed out to you the Mr Charts system posted on this forum, and also suggested the Pozzyp thread. Trader Dantes thread was also mentioned.#

Vendor_Dante ?

you think the people who move a market care about pins lol..for every pin bar that has worked i bet there is about 20 that havnt.

I'm sure there are - that's why you never trade them in isolation.

At any rate, I don't use them myself so the argument is more or less redundant as far as I'm concerned.

Still, all lulz and banter aside for a moment: who do you think the people that move a market are?

You have lost all credibility and I'm not going to waste any more time to respond to your mindless drivel.

I just promised the missus a new DKNY dress if you don't post again. I get oral pleasures if you do.

I reckon my money is safe.

 

[barjon]

Good luck with it. Can I ask how this stock came to your attention ? Was it on a watch list ? Come up in the news ? Scan ?

toastie

just my daily spin through the ftse 100 looking for the 3+ bar retracements which are my main bag

jon

 

[DionysusToast]

Well this post shows you up as the character you are....

What you have done here, in your usual smug and twerpy tone, is to cut and paste sections of my posts in response to you and in separate responses to Megamuel, into one overall response so that it gives the impression that I am giving Megamuel a hard time....or am unwilling to give him assistance.....

Actually I posted to show you are unable to give him assistance - hence your climbdown.

 

[DionysusToast]

toastie

just my daily spin through the ftse 100 looking for the 3+ bar retracements which are my main bag

jon

OK - After browsing FT.COM, this is one I'd pass on this personally.

As a Brit, I know the company but I haven't lived there for a long time so I wasn't up to date.

The moves up since May coincided with some cutbacks in staff at Severn Trent with more cutbacks likely.

The utility spent £36.2m on restructuring the business last year, cutting 275 back office jobs and scaling back the number of depots. Asked if he expected more jobs to go, Tony Wray, chief executive, said: “In short, yes.”

He declined to quantify any further expected job cuts but said that it was unlikely to be on a similar scale to those already seen.

Cost cutting helped Severn Trent lift underlying pre-tax profit by a better-than-expected 23.7 per cent to £338.4m as sales edged up from £1.64bn to £1.7bn.

The water industry is trying to reduce expenses after Ofwat set out its latest pricing regime, which heralds five tough years ahead. United Utilities has made its defined benefit pension schemes less generous to employees, for example

This was May 28th and since then the stock has risen as is quite normal when companies chop heads. You can see on the chart where that news hit the price. Obviously, those jumping in at that point were not TA traders.

So - whilst there's nothing wrong with going long a stock that is approaching it's 2 year high, I'd be wondering about the schedule of Ofwat announcements and any details of negotiations/lobbying between the water companies and the government agencies. It does appear there is uncertainty regarding SVTs future revenues.

For instance, if you got in on Monday and Ofwat were planning to announce a new pricing scheme on Tuesday, you'd be taking one hell of a risk.

Personally, if there's a stock with some negativity regarding future earnings, I'd want to get in at a historically low price, not a historically high one.

 

[barjon]

OK - After browsing FT.COM, this is one I'd pass on this personally.

As a Brit, I know the company but I haven't lived there for a long time so I wasn't up to date.

The moves up since May coincided with some cutbacks in staff at Severn Trent with more cutbacks likely.



This was May 28th and since then the stock has risen as is quite normal when companies chop heads. You can see on the chart where that news hit the price. Obviously, those jumping in at that point were not TA traders.

So - whilst there's nothing wrong with going long a stock that is approaching it's 2 year high, I'd be wondering about the schedule of Ofwat announcements and any details of negotiations/lobbying between the water companies and the government agencies. It does appear there is uncertainty regarding SVTs future revenues.

For instance, if you got in on Monday and Ofwat were planning to announce a new pricing scheme on Tuesday, you'd be taking one hell of a risk.

Personally, if there's a stock with some negativity regarding future earnings, I'd want to get in at a historically low price, not a historically high one.

Fair enough, toastie, but i've got the TA blinkers on and just gonna trade it with no discretion whatsoever. It's not really going to tell us very much since, either way, one swallow doesn't make a summer. Never mind, good fun though

jon

 

[forker]

Secondly - you have missed the point about the DOM/T&S examples. They simply illustrate one point. The point is that the reason for a move is more important that the pattern it forms. This is why TA fails. It is a futile attempt at analyzing the market without context.

i didn't know the DOM presented the reason participant\s placing a trade, does it tell you what they ate for lunch too? Perhaps what you are really saying is that TA doesn't show why a move is under way while the DOM does. What a load of BS. ALL the DOM is showing is an underlying order in the market. period. the participant\s behind the order didn't pull that level out of thin air did they. what did they base their order\s on then? I bet the DOM doesn't tell you that!

If you look at a chart you can easily see how price interacts at previous price levels. have you ever thought that perhaps that is an indication of market participants working with familiar levels? so the question to you is:
how are those levels understood prior to orders being placed? The DOM does not present historical price so how does those levels come into play then????

This is why TA fails. It is a futile attempt at analyzing the market without context

your a comedian... how is the DOM context, its the end result of analysis and nothing more than an order based on analysis. What do you think that analysis is based off? the DOM (no charts, no TA)

I have done in many posts is to show instances of how TA will fail and what is happening behind the scenes that made it fail.

Lets get one thing out the way here, it is the trader that fails not TA. TA is a general term for methods used to understand the market. You are credulously generalising TA as the failure. in addition, Your examples of TA are nothing short of a joke. I am beginning to think your one of those guys that couldn't get the tools to work for you so you inevitably blame them for your failure. Until you can present some tangible evidence that TA doesn't work your credibility has been flushed down the pooper.

It seems that no-one in this thread can use TA to show that TA works.[/B]

There are plenty of traders on this forum that can show how TA has and can can work. there are enough threads and verified traders that can step up to that plate. The question isn't whether they can or not but rather a matter of them wanting to expend their valuable time convincing an imbecile of the fact, unlikely.

Isn't this strange considering how strongly people obviously feel about it, based on the replies here?

exactly what is strange? the person proclaiming TA in a generalised sense is useless while his evidence of the fact is imaginary BS based of nothing factual. or, could it be the individual that states

This is why TA fails. It is a futile attempt at analyzing the market without context.

When his "context" is based of nothing more than an order\s sitting in the market.

 

[forker]

You are welcome to start a journal any time.

Are you going to trade live, with real cash or is this going to be a simulated adventure?

what does the account type got to do with TA?

 

[DionysusToast]

what does the account type got to do with TA?

Forker - if you are not trading with money, you are just playing.

If you are still at the playing stage, it means you haven't figured out what works yet.

 

[DionysusToast]

I will reply to you forker but based on your prior posts, I am making the assumption you don't trade yet.

i didn't know the DOM presented the reason participant\s placing a trade, does it tell you what they ate for lunch too? Perhaps what you are really saying is that TA doesn't show why a move is under way while the DOM does. What a load of BS. ALL the DOM is showing is an underlying order in the market. period. the participant\s behind the order didn't pull that level out of thin air did they. what did they base their order\s on then? I bet the DOM doesn't tell you that! .

The DOM/T&S does not tell you something all of the time. At certain times, it absolutely reveals intent. If someone is spoofing the DOM at the high of the day, then their intent is clear. The reason they are trading is fairly clear. Their breakfast isn't

If you look at a chart you can easily see how price interacts at previous price levels. have you ever thought that perhaps that is an indication of market participants working with familiar levels? so the question to you is:
how are those levels understood prior to orders being placed? The DOM does not present historical price so how does those levels come into play then????

Price manipulation occurs at the levels you discuss. TA will enable you to make a blind play at these levels. Tape reading will allow you to see which side the big money is on and play accordingly.

your a comedian... how is the DOM context, its the end result of analysis and nothing more than an order based on analysis. What do you think that analysis is based off? the DOM (no charts, no TA)

Thank you - it's the way I tell 'em.

Lets get one thing out the way here, it is the trader that fails not TA. TA is a general term for methods used to understand the market. You are credulously generalising TA as the failure. in addition, Your examples of TA are nothing short of a joke. I am beginning to think your one of those guys that couldn't get the tools to work for you so you inevitably blame them for your failure. Until you can present some tangible evidence that TA doesn't work your credibility has been flushed down the pooper.

Believe it or not, I don't come here for credibility. I don't particularly care what people think about me. Your posts lack content on the specific points raised. To say my arguments are a joke is to bypass adressing them.

As I said before - No TA proponent is using TA to prove TA works. You are doing the same thing, attacking the messenger and not the message.

There are plenty of traders on this forum that can show how TA has and can can work. there are enough threads and verified traders that can step up to that plate. The question isn't whether they can or not but rather a matter of them wanting to expend their valuable time convincing an imbecile of the fact, unlikely.

exactly what is strange? the person proclaiming TA in a generalised sense is useless while his evidence of the fact is imaginary BS based of nothing factual. or, could it be the individual that states

When his "context" is based of nothing more than an order\s sitting in the market.

Why not use TA to show me TA works yourself ? Why keep pointing to other people ? Are you sure you are aware of everything they use and of their motives for posting on here ?

Is it too difficult ?

PrawnSandwich said he could do it with 1 simple chart. Can't you do the same?

 

[DionysusToast]

Fair enough, toastie, but i've got the TA blinkers on and just gonna trade it with no discretion whatsoever. It's not really going to tell us very much since, either way, one swallow doesn't make a summer. Never mind, good fun though

jon

Well, as you are putting money on the line - I hope you are right in this case.

 

[forker]

Forker - if you are not trading with money, you are just playing.

If you are still at the playing stage, it means you haven't figured out what works yet.

wow, that's a revelation, did you come up with that on your own?

 

[forker]

I will reply to you forker but based on your prior posts, I am making the assumption you don't trade yet.

you know nothing about me and your assumptions are unfounded. based on everything you have been saying you not only know nothing about TA, but you also know nothing about trading in general.

Price manipulation occurs at the levels you discuss. TA will enable you to make a blind play at these levels. Tape reading will allow you to see which side the big money is on and play accordingly.

no 5hit Sherlock. you still missing my point and i am not even going to bother explaining it again to you. As far as tape reading allowing you to see which way the money is headed and TA not. keep telling yourself that because you building up a world of delusion around yourself. Your knowledge of trading is unbelievably child like.

Believe it or not, I don't come here for credibility. I don't particularly care what people think about me. Your posts lack content on the specific points raised. To say my arguments are a joke is to bypass adressing them.

who you trying to bull5**** toast, im not one of your play friends by the jungle gym. i have addressed your posts around TA in particular very clearly. All you have done hypothetically given useless imaginary examples, yes imaginary examples, not a single piece of evidence proving your claims. so again I tell you that your posts are nothing short of a joke.

As I said before - No TA proponent is using TA to prove TA works. You are doing the same thing, attacking the messenger and not the message.
Why not use TA to show me TA works yourself ? Why keep pointing to other people ? Are you sure you are aware of everything they use and of their motives for posting on here ?

Is it too difficult ?

Do you really think i was born yesterday and that i am going to play your little retard game of " look here are my charts proving TA works"? Toast, i have been in this business for long enough to know a retard when i read one. I make a living of TA and i am no longer going to servicing a retards ego about a subject he clearly knows nothing about.