Is it really possible?

[Calinor]

I'm wondering if it is actually possible to consistently make good money Day-trading. And hope some people can be honest and share their approximate results. I believe it is possible to make money over a long time period, because you can find the right trends, and the intra-day noise doesn't affect you if you have a wide stop and are happy to wait days, weeks or months. You will lose sometimes, but eventually I believe you can win this way (especially if you make good entries) and some hedge funds do seem to win over the long term.

Day trading has a lot of noise though, and possibly a lot of trading (=commission costs), and you can be right about the overall move, but get killed on any given day. Do people really make money here? Also the reason I ask if people can make GOOD money is not because I'm concerned with how much you make, but realistically if 10,000 people all bet on a bunch of random coin tosses, some will make money. But they won't make enough that is convincing enough that it must be beyond chance. So in order to claim that it can successfully be done, then you should be able to make quite substantial gains as a % of your capital.

How many people here actually make good money by day-trading? Please share. Many people say it is just not possible. I know you read on here and from experienced traders that you will lose for 6 months to a year before you learn and become consistently profitable, but perhaps they just want newbs to trade and lose their money. Fresh meat for the brokerages, and fresh meat for those that hang on to long term moves.

Another reason why I have doubts, is that many Banks are just clearing out their prop desks. Meaning, they are not profitable enough to run any more (if they ever were indeed profitable beyond chance). So if even these guys with all the best equipment, analysts, years of experience and data are not making money, how can a normal trader be expected to. Furthermore, those trading desks that do still exist, are not filled with old experienced guys who took years to learn and now can make crap loads of money.They are filled with youngsters who could just be existing based on chance again, survival bias. This echoes a lot of what people like Nassim Taleb have written about. I have not experienced day-trading long enough to know if it is doable. I have tried it a little, and I win some, lose some as epxected but overall can only break even. So I am hoping more experienced people here can shed some light. I am quite happy to put the time into it to study the charts and learn it. But I want to know if it is just a fools errand before I spend that time learning.

Some honest opinions and results please. And where are the old guys of trading? Why don't you find them on the trading floors of the big banks day-trading? How many day-traders do banks actually employ? These things are important, because if they are employing quite a large number, then it is because the accounts show it is profitable for them to. If they're not employing them, then that is because it is not profitable.

 

[everyonerich]

call your broker and ask him how many traders, especially retail traders are making money on their books. he/she might tell you 90% lose everything within 3 months..

 

[Calinor]

I knwo the 90% figure. I think that doesn't really reveal much though. Because there are two ways you can read that. That 90% could be mostly people that lose early on and give up within 6 months, when in fact it is possible for most to make money if they stick at it. Or it could be that the 10% are only profitable from luck and those 10% will eventually join the other 90% when they have a run of bad luck, and a new group of lucky people will take their place as the new 10% of 'successful day traders'. So really you could read that either way. Also maybe 80% of people don't get a first in their exams at university. But that doesn't mean that it can't be done or that it is luck. They achieve the first class degree by a mixture of hard work, intelligence and natural aptitude for the subject (despite the 80% or whatever that don't achieve it). Is the same true of day trading or not?

I'm interested in people's personal experiences and also whether banks employ people to do it, and why not?

 

[everyonerich]

I knwo the 90% figure. I think that doesn't really reveal much though. Because there are two ways you can read that. That 90% could be mostly people that lose early on and give up within 6 months, when in fact it is possible for most to make money if they stick at it. Or it could be that the 10% are only profitable from luck and those 10% will eventually join the other 90% when they have a run of bad luck, and a new group of lucky people will take their place as the new 10% of 'successful day traders'. So really you could read that either way. Also maybe 80% of people don't get a first in their exams at university. But that doesn't mean that it can't be done or that it is luck.

I'm interested in people's personal experiences and also whether banks employ people to do it, and why not?

do u mind tell us here what markets you intended to trade?

 

[donaldduke]

I'm wondering if it is actually possible to consistently make good money Day-trading. And hope some people can be honest and share their approximate results. I believe it is possible to make money over a long time period, because you can find the right trends, and the intra-day noise doesn't affect you if you have a wide stop and are happy to wait days, weeks or months. You will lose sometimes, but eventually I believe you can win this way (especially if you make good entries) and some hedge funds do seem to win over the long term.

What is your definition of consistent , making money every day, week, or month, or year?

And is 20% a year enough, or must a consistent day trader make 200+% a year?

Atleast 50% every year is consistent in my book. And that is easily possible, year in, year out.

I aim to make around 100% a year, and i know in a good year i might make more than that but in a below average year i might make only 50%, and once every 20 years or so i might make even make less than 50%.

But if you want to make 20% a week, or even 20% every month then this is not consistently possible over a long period.

But the future is always uncertain, the financial system is at risk of collapse, and you never know what might happen. Perhaps liquidity will dry up in a lot of markets making day trading much more difficult..

 

[theSheik]

the truth of the matter is cunningly encoded in the title of this book....

Day Trading For Dummies:Book Information - For Dummies

...to unravel the code, insert the letters "s" and "i"

 

[Calinor]

Well for a day trader, obviously they will lose some days, and some weeks, but I was thinking that consistently profitable would mean that out of 12 months of trading, a day trader should be in profit for 9-10 of those 12 months at least (and of course overall profit).

But yeah 50% would be pretty profitable Donald. And if that can genuinely be achieved (no offence meant, I don't mean to doubt your word, it is just hedge funds would be delighted with 15-20% a year) I'd be impressed. You say that is easily possible year in year out. So you have made more than 50% each year over the past several years? Can you give an estimate of your % gains over the past 5 years say? Perhaps you can teach me

everyonerich, well I'm just wondering if it is even possible on any major market. Personally, I prefer to trade indices: FTSE, YM or I occasionally dabble with currencies (with less success)

 

[donaldduke]

But yeah 50% would be pretty profitable Donald. And if that can genuinely be achieved (no offence meant, I don't mean to doubt your word, it is just hedge funds would be delighted with 15-20% a year) I'd be impressed. You say that is easily possible year in year out. So you have made more than 50% each year over the past several years? Can you give an estimate of your % gains over the past 5 years say? Perhaps you can teach me

Its good to see that you are realistic is in your expecations.

I have averaged much more than 50% over the last four years. My systems are profitable about 80% of months.

As for teaching you, there really is no incentive for me to do that.But nearly everything i know about trading can be learnt from books. The rest you must learn yourself by actually trading and losing real money.

I am prepared to trade systems that only win 40% of the time, i am prepared to have 10 losing trades in a row. Sometimes (but thankfully not often) i only get 2 winning tades out of 20.
Most traders are not prepared to trade that way and are not prepared to take 30%+ drawdown like i am prepared to do. Most people lose discipline after 3 losing trades.

Im not saying this is the only way to trade. Some people claim to be profitable with systems than win over 60% of the time, even 80 or 90% of the time. I have never been able to develop such day trading systems (atleast not ones that remain robust for long periods) but perhaps they do exist.

Anyway a high win rate is not required to make money as a trader as i am sure you know already.

People fear losing money. My biggest fear is missing a valid trade. I also have a level of comitment to trading that most people would not be able to match.

 

[Splitlink]

In a nutshell, yes.

I'm not prepared to put my details on here, you'll just have to take my word for it, but I have not had a losing day this week, for example, and losing weeks are rare.

It has not, always, been like that. I've been trading for thirty years. The first thing that I had to come to grips with was "the get rich quick" attitude that I had. Now, I'm no spring chicken, and I have a much different outlook. Without doubt, the first years are the most dangerous for a new trader, because most of us are all the same in that we try to fight the market.

If, as you say, and I have heard the same, 90% fail it is because you are asking the wrong question. I would suggest that a large proportion of beginners are, by nature, gamblers. Once they have disappeared, the serious traders are left. How many traders, who have been trading, regularly, for over ten years, are failures?

Split

 

[Trader333]

you'll just have to take my word for it, but I have not had a losing day this week,

Is that because you didn't do any trading this week ?


Paul

 

[Splitlink]

Is that because you didn't do any trading this week ?


Paul

I haven't missed a morning. It seems to be better than having money in the bank or owning a house. Now, that is getting to become a problem.

Split

 

[Taylored001]

I'm 18, quit 6th form to trade, trading 8-10, then 11.30-12, then 2.30-5.30 mon-fri, then 6-7 for end-of-day data trades.
I've only ever had one losing day, i'm sure there are more to come.
I make about £113 a day with £10 maximum loss per trade.
Target this year is £100k in profit as i increase my stake.

Any questions, do ask.

David.

 

[Trader333]

Which broker are you with ?


Paul

 

[montpro]

Hi Taylor, how much do you have in your pot to make £113 per day, and I'd like to know what broker you use too - i use oanda and fxcm but am about to start with alpari

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

To Calinor/OP:

Sure it's possible to make a living trading, after you pay your tuition

Then you will scrap every last dime together to apply the lessons. I'm living off my profits, but I live a meager life style (low expenses). I literally only need $25-$100 a day to live...the question is, why would you ever want to trade for a living (lonely, risky, constant watching)?

I personally put up with the draw downs of working alone, because I just like to trade. Traders who trade their own money are the most independent people around. And that's a good thing, because we can exist "outside" of the economic system-we are speculators who constantly price things. We can move anywhere we want...the "job" has benefits..

Can you strike it rich? Sure. But you're safer having goals about making a consistent small profit % every day. First pay the bills then make the big loot later....

Pay the rent/mortgage
groceries
power
computer upgrades
entertainment

It's hard to make a lot when you have a smaller account! you will be drawing out your gains so fast...if you start with more $$ then you make/lose more $$ (draw downs get larger, gains larger).

 

[Calinor]

Thanks Spitlink. "To answer how many traders of ten years are more are failing?" It is hard for me to know, because you don't see too many of them in banks. Maybe they have blown up by then, or burned out, or are trading for their personal account quietly and you don't see them. I honestly don't know, which is why I posted. To re-enforce some faith if you know what I mean It is good to know that there ARE people like you and others who can make it. I also thought that perhaps very few of those 10-year plus traders actually day-trade and maybe they make their money from swing trading. But it seems there are plenty of profitable day-traders too.

Mr. J-Arthur, the reason I would like to do it, is like you, for the independence it offers and because I find it very interesting. Can't deny I enjoy it. Even the studying charts for hours, and thinking up new systems. It is a great challenge for me, even though I'm not winning that battle yet, and I relish it. But if I know I never would be able to win that game (as is true at the casino unless you count cards), then I would sensibly give it up.

 

[Splitlink]

Thanks Spitlink. "To answer how many traders of ten years are more are failing?" It is hard for me to know, because you don't see too many of them in banks. Maybe they have blown up by then, or burned out, or are trading for their personal account quietly and you don't see them. I honestly don't know, which is why I posted. To re-enforce some faith if you know what I mean It is good to know that there ARE people like you and others who can make it. I also thought that perhaps very few of those 10-year plus traders actually day-trade and maybe they make their money from swing trading. But it seems there are plenty of profitable day-traders too.

Mr. J-Arthur, the reason I would like to do it, is like you, for the independence it offers and because I find it very interesting. Can't deny I enjoy it. Even the studying charts for hours, and thinking up new systems. It is a great challenge for me, even though I'm not winning that battle yet, and I relish it. But if I know I never would be able to win that game (as is true at the casino unless you count cards), then I would sensibly give it up.

Don't worry, I did not expect an answer to that question but I think that the gamblers must be separated from the serious traders, in that 90%.

I am not a wealthy trader, by any means, but I enjoy it and it is profitable for me. For what it's worth, I've tried all types of ideas and systems and, in the end, have come back to the simplest methods of all.

Split

 

[montpro]

Which are?

 

[DaxDestroyer]

Its good to see that you are realistic is in your expecations.

I have averaged much more than 50% over the last four years. My systems are profitable about 80% of months.

As for teaching you, there really is no incentive for me to do that.But nearly everything i know about trading can be learnt from books. The rest you must learn yourself by actually trading and losing real money.

I am prepared to trade systems that only win 40% of the time, i am prepared to have 10 losing trades in a row. Sometimes (but thankfully not often) i only get 2 winning tades out of 20.
Most traders are not prepared to trade that way and are not prepared to take 30%+ drawdown like i am prepared to do. Most people lose discipline after 3 losing trades.

Im not saying this is the only way to trade. Some people claim to be profitable with systems than win over 60% of the time, even 80 or 90% of the time. I have never been able to develop such day trading systems (atleast not ones that remain robust for long periods) but perhaps they do exist.

Anyway a high win rate is not required to make money as a trader as i am sure you know already.

People fear losing money. My biggest fear is missing a valid trade. I also have a level of comitment to trading that most people would not be able to match.

If I weren't trading for some time already and couldn't do math, I would be sure now that you will be topping the Forbes 500 soon :cheesy:

 

[DaxDestroyer]

I am not a wealthy trader, by any means, but I enjoy it and it is profitable for me. For what it's worth, I've tried all types of ideas and systems and, in the end, have come back to the simplest methods of all.

Split

30 years of trading. I believe, you tested everything. I don't believe, you are not wealthy Maybe we have a different definition of "wealth"