TOTW Is it better to trade with or against the trend?

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hyperscalper said:
With all due respect, not picking any fights here. But those of you who talk about Forex resolutions of 3 pips most likely have no idea what you're talking about. I Micro-Scalp Forex on LMAX and I use Raw tick pricing, and highly specialized analytics plus Order Entry to profit from these small moves. It just ain't possible for "normal" "bar based" manual traders to trade at these resolutions.

Like I said, with all due respect !! We can discuss, but I know micro scalping which is defined as 2-10 pips or so range...

Just for giggles you can watch this video to get an idea. This is NOT advertising, just giving you an idea what those small pip moves in Forex precision really require from several perspectives.

tinyurl.com slash kcbtb6d

HyperScalper
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Well -if you are not going to be annoyed and goaded into a "slanging match" which draws in the crowds, then I have to agree that "entering on a pullback" is a profitable approach.
Merry Christmas to all my readers.
 

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neil said:
Well -if you are not going to be annoyed and goaded into a "slanging match" which draws in the crowds, then I have to agree that "entering on a pullback" is a profitable approach.
Merry Christmas to all my readers.
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Yes, a sensible attitude. Anybody would have to be really stupid to trade against the trend. Or what they believe the trend to be, as it relates to where they hope the price will be moving to result in their personal profitability.

Let's "draw in the crowds" by Violently agreeing that any techniques, such as "making the market come to your price" can improve your outcomes slightly as a general matter.

But really making a BIG difference in your trading outcomes means reliably predicting future price, either with your Magic Crystal Ball (not recommended) or with some fancy Analytics which tell you (somehow) where the price is moving with as high a probability as possible. That's really the only thing which ultimately matters, whether you are able to Buy lower than you Sell to ensure your survival.

I can get nearly 100% Win Rates, if I trade for 1.0 pips, with mechanical triggering. However, although that is possible, it is not a good way to approach trading and it's much better to be able to go for the bigger wins.

HyperScalper
 
the trend, not easy to define... and a PB can be a beginner of the other direction and more likely can end up in a no no zone or range.

A trend for me is the direction of the least resistance at that moment of time in my TF, I will also try to determine that level of least resistance when into a range or a pause, is the range gently making HH"s and HL's ?

I prefer to enter in a PB only if is confirmed with a confirmation of what I perceive is the direction of least resistance and I usually use classic chart pattern with a BO that confirms that required confirmation: flags pennants, triangles, channels, wedges, H&S continuations and so on....

I also give a great deal of importance at the price action at the moment of confirmation or BO out of the pattern. I like to see a clear and define bar of what I define as a trend bar.

When the market is perceived as range, which is most of the time, I will try to fade the new extreme with a second entry if the push to the extreme is quite strong, wedges or 3 push ups.

Markets do shift from trend to range, trend to trend and range to trend at any time.

For me determine that condition is essential to take advantage of the market.
 
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There is a lot of money to be made counter trend trading in my view and the key is knowing when to take the opposite position of a trend which is a skill in itself. It can and is done but is not as obvious when to enter as some would have you believe.
 
Trader333 said:
There is a lot of money to be made counter trend trading in my view and the key is knowing when to take the opposite position of a trend which is a skill in itself. It can and is done but is not as obvious when to enter as some would have you believe.
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I am holding my breath, literally, until you give us some more details how you do it!! We promise not to copy your technique..... Help us become better.
HyperScalper
 
Trader333 said:
There is a lot of money to be made counter trend trading in my view and the key is knowing when to take the opposite position of a trend which is a skill in itself. It can and is done but is not as obvious when to enter as some would have you believe.
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I agree with you....some are very specialise at it.....their RR can also be huge despite their low probably of winners.

They are also very quick on their feet.....
 
Well I am not going to give details but as you say the R:R is very good and the percentage profitable is much higher than you would think. It does not work on forex or stocks but works well on specific futures markets.
 
Trader333 said:
Well I am not going to give details but as you say the R:R is very good and the percentage profitable is much higher than you would think. It does not work on forex or stocks but works well on specific futures markets.
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For quick exits yes, I doubt it for turning direction. A break of a major TL is required.
 
Depends on what you mean by quick and it involves a particular technique that can last hours or longer in some cases. It is not about a change in direction as the trend will likely continue in the same direction but it does involve knowing when it has a high probability of retracing and the reason why.
 
Trader333 said:
Depends on what you mean by quick and it involves a particular technique that can last hours or longer in some cases. It is not about a change in direction as the trend will likely continue in the same direction but it does involve knowing when it has a high probability of retracing and the reason why.
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All very mysterious :LOL:
 
Trader333 said:
Depends on what you mean by quick and it involves a particular technique that can last hours or longer in some cases. It is not about a change in direction as the trend will likely continue in the same direction but it does involve knowing when it has a high probability of retracing and the reason why.
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"quick" it is the first sign that the counter trend has not convince many of a follow up to enter(sideliners), it can be viewed by simply PA or by technicality.

Stronger the reaction, convincing will be the continuation of the counter trend, normally at an average of the past bars bulls and bears meet again there and they will pursue their convictions, here good probability stands that the recent high/low is going to be revisit.

In the case a major trend line had been broken, a second test of the recent low/high, by undershot or overshot is also consider an high probability trade for counter traders at least for 2 legs up/down.

Taking partial profit and moving protect stop at BE for a possible continuation is a custom for counter traders at those sign posts.
 
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For me it has to be with the trend. I generally now only trade stocks, and trying to trade against an extablished trend will end up in a losing trade, more often than not higher than the initial risk, as it will gap up, back in the primary direction.
Then there's the overall market trend, and having backtested numerous strategies the results were convincing to only ever trade long when the overall market was in an uptrend.
and then similarly for sector trend.
Like I say, its certainly like this for stocks
Fugazy makes a great point in looking for price patterns on a lower timeframe, when they confirm the initial direction, I've found these to be incredibly accurate.
 
Hey, in that chart you sketched there, doncha know that time doesn't go backwards in the real world? :) Cuz man, if it did, I'd be a better trader ! I've been working on a Time Machine for years now.... HyperScalper
 
hyperscalper said:
Hey, in that chart you sketched there, doncha know that time doesn't go backwards in the real world? :) Cuz man, if it did, I'd be a better trader ! I've been working on a Time Machine for years now.... HyperScalper
Click to expand...

Always use backwards price and time for taking the next trade.

Maybe buy and stops are future order's

That's one of my fav DAX trade's.

First pull back on a break out, can get false breaks but that's part of the game.

If done on a tick chart you could do hundreds of trades a day.

Then you only need the chart to see where the markets been and just stare a deal ticket going in and out all day.

Guess going back to the thread question.

Trying to trade with the trend but taking the trade against the trend.
 
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