Atilla
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spent it all
Liar liar pants on fire... :clap::clap::clap:
Is capatalism failing?
- Thread starter N Rothschild
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Liar liar pants on fire... :clap::clap::clap:
new_trader
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I get bored of all this too. You guys laughed when I agreed with touting green shoots of recovery last Feb/March 2009.
You are too narrow in your causes for house price rises imo. There is a lot of cash in the system and it needs to go somewhere. Especially with high inflation and negative interest rates.
The pound is low and foreign money is also coming in to buy.
Popullation is rising with more split families.
Supply of houses pretty inelastic.
Your stats refer to demographic factors and frictional moves as people either move up or move down to appropriate accomodation.
At the end of the day it is not about what we think or if we are in denial or not. One puts their money down and takes their chances.
Houses prices will inevitably rise along with inflation!
Time will tell.
Here are some charts...
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-rightmove-national.php
I think this is the point. Not enough people have the money to put a deposit down on a house. House prices don't always rise with inflation, look at what happened from 1989-1996.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
N Rothschild
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http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php
with this graph here. historically, when house prices move to far away from the mean, they end up collapsing and falling bellow the mean value.
so why would it not do so again?
if the trend count for anything, we should be looking at lower prices for a while yet. this is just a bounce.
with this graph here. historically, when house prices move to far away from the mean, they end up collapsing and falling bellow the mean value.
so why would it not do so again?
if the trend count for anything, we should be looking at lower prices for a while yet. this is just a bounce.
Atilla
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Well house prices rise every decade.
If I recall Mrs Thatcher had some tax policy that was due to be scrapped and many people rushed to bring purchase decisions forward and pushing house prices into a bubble.
Black Monday didn't help along with the problem in the £ and war with Argies.
If you look at the long term trend it pretty much caught up soon after.
I would agree that we may not have the meteoric rise in house prices as in the past providing inflation remains low. As we all see this is not the case.
Oil sticky at $80 in a recession.
VAT soon to be 20%
Commodities and food stuff will also rise in due course.
Prices - can only rise to 4-5% very soon.
Equities will rise along with property.
So will indeces.
How else can all this debt be paid back with tax breaks...
Damn statistics, charts and lies...
Atilla
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Yes and we have had the pull back - a substantial and massive one at that. Price falls are always sticky. I reckon prices have caught up - recovering the over-reaction and they'll remain here until inflationary pressures build and people re-arrange their financial assets and portfolios accordingly.
One very big new factor -imo, is likely to be use of property assest as pension substitute. Pensions are non-guaranteed and worthless facing risk of collapse.
Property is a tantigable asset in the palm of your hand with full control. Sell it and buy your annuity or what ever. In the near future this will be touted more and more.
Government will also introduce a tax on 2nd property etc etc. But overall house price and demand along with inflationary pressures is the future.
rawrschach
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what the **** is capatalism?
prices of productive property and 'house prices' are not the same thing. House prices, especially for upmarket houses are dead in the water, productive land is a real asset, a condo on the upper east side is not.
this weeks issue of country life has million+ euro discounts off advertised prices on some houses.
prices of productive property and 'house prices' are not the same thing. House prices, especially for upmarket houses are dead in the water, productive land is a real asset, a condo on the upper east side is not.
this weeks issue of country life has million+ euro discounts off advertised prices on some houses.
new_trader
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Well house prices rise every decade.
If I recall Mrs Thatcher had some tax policy that was due to be scrapped and many people rushed to bring purchase decisions forward and pushing house prices into a bubble.
Black Monday didn't help along with the problem in the £ and war with Argies.
If you look at the long term trend it pretty much caught up soon after.
I would agree that we may not have the meteoric rise in house prices as in the past providing inflation remains low. As we all see this is not the case.
Oil sticky at $80 in a recession.
VAT soon to be 20%
Commodities and food stuff will also rise in due course.
Prices - can only rise to 4-5% very soon.
Equities will rise along with property.
So will indeces.
How else can all this debt be paid back with tax breaks...
Damn statistics, charts and lies...
Atilla, I am not sure of the point you are trying to make. Are you saying that houses are a good investment simply because they rise with inflation? How does higher fuel, energy, VAT and food prices help a FTB trying to save for a deposit to buy a house that is also going up in price?
rawrschach
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Same with oil, you're forecasting price inflation in most sectors but not commodities?
Even if nominal house prices go up, this means nothing in real terms if we end up with hyperinflation.
Even if nominal house prices go up, this means nothing in real terms if we end up with hyperinflation.
N Rothschild
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so we have had the pullback yet we havnt gone below the mean trend like every other pull back? ok
stop talking about what you want to happen, and what will happen
new_trader
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Exactly. Does anyone honestly think a bank would lend someone money for 25 years and willingly lose on the deal? Those who think houses are a great investment must be cash buyers only. Once you include loan interest, maintenance, insurance and sundries they ain't that good...really, they ain't. Unless you buy around 2-3 years before a credit bubble begins and sell just before it collapses.
N Rothschild
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imo a great asset to invest in is wine, and i do so
Atilla
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Guys the only point I'm making is;
1. Inflation will rise and will be prescribed as a solution for helping wipe out debt.
2. Houses will help maintain value in this inflationary period. House prices will not fall or lose value over inflation.
That's all!
I'd strongly recommend having a mixed portfolio of assets.
N Rothschild
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one small problem is.
who says there will be inflation? your entire theory is based on the fact there will be inflation when we may well see a deflationary depression much like japan.
who says there will be inflation? your entire theory is based on the fact there will be inflation when we may well see a deflationary depression much like japan.
imo a great asset to invest in is wine, and i do so
Only if you leave it in the bottle.
new_trader
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imo a great asset to invest in is wine, and i do so
In percentage terms, I made as much money in 6 months investing in Palladium as I did with property over 10 years. I don’t know enough about wine and there is also the problem with storage...but if someone was to create a wine ETF:idea:
N Rothschild
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just watched an interview with that retard peter schif going on about the economy and gold.
someone put the question to him, "what if the economy recovers"
he wouldnt even accept it as a possible outcome, would not, could not happen. GOLD BITCHES (to qoute the zerohedge masses)
what a idiotic way of thinking, to not even take into account the counter argument. big like yourself attilla
someone put the question to him, "what if the economy recovers"
he wouldnt even accept it as a possible outcome, would not, could not happen. GOLD BITCHES (to qoute the zerohedge masses)
what a idiotic way of thinking, to not even take into account the counter argument. big like yourself attilla
new_trader
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just watched an interview with that retard peter schif going on about the economy and gold.
someone put the question to him, "what if the economy recovers"
he wouldnt even accept it as a possible outcome, would not, could not happen. GOLD BITCHES (to qoute the zerohedge masses)
what a idiotic way of thinking, to not even take into account the counter argument. big like yourself attilla
I bet myself that if there was one person at T2W who would refer to Peter Schiff as a retard it would be you.
Atilla
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just watched an interview with that retard peter schif going on about the economy and gold.
someone put the question to him, "what if the economy recovers"
he wouldnt even accept it as a possible outcome, would not, could not happen. GOLD BITCHES (to qoute the zerohedge masses)
what a idiotic way of thinking, to not even take into account the counter argument. big like yourself attilla
So what is the level of inflation now and how do you explain it?
Send a letter to Mr Osborne why don't you?
new_trader
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House prices aren't included in the CPI are they? If they were your argument would be valid. Besides how do you explain a 13% drop in the asking price of a property I've been tracking?
