Hi Stocky12
Personally, ive never been into trendlines. they all look great, because they all look perfect at the time. also they're very subjective meaning its not so easy when deriving a strategy with a set of rules to guide you.
How much have your trendlines made you in the past out of interest? because isnt this whats most important? the success or return of using your trendlines as a means to making money?
An observation if i may...look at the indicators on your charts, are they confirming what your trendlines are showing? and suppose you did away with trendlines and just looked at the indicators. which would you choose to keep, if you could keep one say? and is that indicator potentially able to give a better view to guage the trend instead of the line, and the strength of that trend
i know you asked about your trendlines, but sometimes the whole picture provides a different story
Personally, ive never been into trendlines. they all look great, because they all look perfect at the time. also they're very subjective meaning its not so easy when deriving a strategy with a set of rules to guide you.
How much have your trendlines made you in the past out of interest? because isnt this whats most important? the success or return of using your trendlines as a means to making money?
An observation if i may...look at the indicators on your charts, are they confirming what your trendlines are showing? and suppose you did away with trendlines and just looked at the indicators. which would you choose to keep, if you could keep one say? and is that indicator potentially able to give a better view to guage the trend instead of the line, and the strength of that trend
i know you asked about your trendlines, but sometimes the whole picture provides a different story
Phylo
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The truth about whether trendlines, indicators, price action, or even throwing the bones work is more complicated than simply saying they do not.
The complexity can be summed up as: 'They always work—except when they don't.'
However, unlike shop hours, it's not an open or shut case.
Example of success
No doubt failures abound and the mighty can fall: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/tesla.239430/post-3270034
Alcoa (AA): All time chart - TradingView Charts (free)
IMO: Technical analysis needs to be balanced with some fundamental analysis.
* The immediate above image - not shown in the above main chart image - is located to the right and under the Watch List column in TradingView Charts.
Click - Alcoa Corporation in the above image* to get to the below screen, then click Forecast
Buffets Opinion
A paid service I use.
NOTE: I have no commercial arrangement with said service - there are many such services available - this example is by way of illustration only.
If I remember correctly, there is a daily limit of free queries.
AA Intrinsic value at current close price 33.95 USD.
Nevertheless, unless shorting and/or prohibitive broker maintenance fees, there is no urgency of time on unleveraged instruments.
Further research may provide a fuller picture.
Below merely an example of further research.
The complexity can be summed up as: 'They always work—except when they don't.'
However, unlike shop hours, it's not an open or shut case.
Example of success
No doubt failures abound and the mighty can fall: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/tesla.239430/post-3270034
- An overabundance of indicators is symptomatic of uncertainty.
ThePatternSite.com
ThePatternSite.com is internationally known author and trader Thomas Bulkowski's FREE website for research on chart patterns, candlesticks, and much more!
thepatternsite.com
Pattern Index
Provides free access to stock market chart patterns, Elliott waves, busted chart patterns, event patterns, and so on, written by internationally known author and trader Thomas Bulkowski.
thepatternsite.com
Alcoa (AA): All time chart - TradingView Charts (free)
IMO: Technical analysis needs to be balanced with some fundamental analysis.
* The immediate above image - not shown in the above main chart image - is located to the right and under the Watch List column in TradingView Charts.
Click - Alcoa Corporation in the above image* to get to the below screen, then click Forecast
A paid service I use.
NOTE: I have no commercial arrangement with said service - there are many such services available - this example is by way of illustration only.
If I remember correctly, there is a daily limit of free queries.
AA Intrinsic value at current close price 33.95 USD.
- Worse Case: 32.80 USD
- Base Case: 47.82 USD
- Best Case: 74.86 USD
- (( 47.82 / 33.95 ) - 1 ) * 100 = 40.85%
- ((47.82 - 33.95 ) / 33.95 ) * 100 = 40.85%
Nevertheless, unless shorting and/or prohibitive broker maintenance fees, there is no urgency of time on unleveraged instruments.
Further research may provide a fuller picture.
Below merely an example of further research.
- Any making a trading penny or two can always drop some pocket change to a charity of choice: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/charities.14602/post-3263478
Last edited:
Phylo
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Edits:
Example of success
No doubt failures abound and the mighty can fall: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/tesla.239430/post-3270034
No doubt failures are abundant (edit)* and the mighty can fall: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/tesla.239430/post-3270034
* and likewise, so are successes abundant.
Nevertheless, unless shorting and/or prohibitive broker maintenance fees, there is no urgency of time on unleveraged instruments. (edit)**
** Plain vanilla unleveraged stock trading is assumed.
If spread betting or trading any other leveraged modus operandi then a different risk assessment is demanded.
Example of success
No doubt failures are abundant (edit)* and the mighty can fall: https://www.trade2win.com/threads/tesla.239430/post-3270034
* and likewise, so are successes abundant.
Nevertheless, unless shorting and/or prohibitive broker maintenance fees, there is no urgency of time on unleveraged instruments. (edit)**
** Plain vanilla unleveraged stock trading is assumed.
If spread betting or trading any other leveraged modus operandi then a different risk assessment is demanded.
Phylo
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Following the above, Bulkowski (ThePatternSite), who has professional engineering credentials, has conducted extensive research on chart patterns incorporating trendlines. Logic, prudence, and diligence argue in favor of Bulkowski's comprehensive research rather than Penelope's opinion**.
IMO: I do not favour oscillators. Why? If you have coded*, added alerts or other mods to a few you will know that most are based on Moving Averages.
Example
** A retention of the entire encyclopedia of chart patterns is not necessary.
The Pattern Site (free)
And to conclude - talking of trendlines
Sierra Chart - London Summer Time: US30 Today Mon 24 Mar 2025
IMO: I do not favour oscillators. Why? If you have coded*, added alerts or other mods to a few you will know that most are based on Moving Averages.
- I find the analogy of writing while holding a pen at the top end, instead of the more efficient method of holding it at the bottom end, to be fitting.
- While some may still be able to write this way, holding the pen at the top end results in reduced clarity and accuracy of execution.
- Nevertheless, besides shortcomings, the Stochastics is the only one in a family of underperformers with which I managed to stay on occasion speaking terms with.
- Further to the above—on leveraged products—I favor small risk and established, well-known price action patterns. Determining a 'get out now' becomes imprecise and messy.
Example
** A retention of the entire encyclopedia of chart patterns is not necessary.
- Below: US indices regularly repeat simple chart pattern-price actions,123s, progressions of higher lows or lower highs - whatever - and, often about the London and US Opens
- Re Day Trading: From experience - losses occur with the mindset that "everyday is a trading opportunity day" instead of having patients to (1) learn to identify and (2) wait for the same old boring patterns to appear.
The Pattern Site (free)
And to conclude - talking of trendlines
Sierra Chart - London Summer Time: US30 Today Mon 24 Mar 2025
Last edited:
Phylo
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Trendline and Horizontal Line Alert : https://www.trade2win.com/threads/keyboard-trader.242964/#post-3270308
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