OK forget Wall Street for a second.
Government elections and change of government party after 55 years in Japan.
Strong Yen / Weak Yen?
Perceived wisdom suggests markets dislike change (so weak Yen?).
Focus of new (labour-ish) Japan government is on domestic sales rather than export. So where will they get the funds to develop their domestic market? Government bonds with attractive yield. Who will buy them? Everyone. What currency will you need to acquire to buy them? Yen, or course (Strong Yen?).
And to have an attractive Bond yield, what will than mean for the Japanese interest rate? And what will that mean to the mainstay trade of the hedges and institutional traders - their carry trade strategies?
It’s OK to say ‘wait until the price moves’, (and under everyday circumstances, I’ll agree with you) but there are times when if you don’t have an expectation of what’s going to float and in which direction, you’ll miss the tide completely.