Boletus, I'd like to offer some constructive input. Maybe it will help. That's my goal, anyway.
Once the coin flip mentality has been adopted, you are, at that point, saying the market has control. You have no say, and it is out of your hands. I've been trading for 6 years. The 1st year was spend paying my dues and developing my methodology. The next 2 were spent in relative profit, but even then, I had my moments, and that was measureable by my lack of confidence and experience was still not on my side. The last 3years has been when my trading started scaling new heights. It has been in the last 3 years that I realized I have complete control of what I am doing and every aspect of my trading. Let me say as respectful as I know how, I laugh at 2% per week. I made 5% yesterday on a not-so-great day on 3 trades. I made 3% today, but my other trades I have up now are probbaly going to run the gammit the rest of the week.
Trading requires discernment. When you have a pullback within a trend, the object is to know is it a correction? Is it a new trend? Is it a move of smaller significance within a trend or correction? Not all are acclimated to mathematics, but my mathematical knowledge has helped me in being a student (I still am, btw.) of the markets.
I will admit that having a strong risk tolerance has helped me a lot. I recently thought I had a call on the EUR/CHF, but it backed up on me an additional circa 250 pips, It came back to be an outstanding winner. I'm not saying that for someone to adopt my style. Mine is only right for me. Once developed, yours will be right for only you. I said that because experience has helped me to be able to discern the proximity of a reversal, and if I'm wrong, then the move once it gets turned around is even stronger, because that part of the trend becomes streched even more.
There are many more factors involved with successfully trading. It may take more time for you to fully develop a methodology, But if you continue within the context of the coin flip mentaility, then you will always be asking the question, "Is it realistic to make 2% per week?" It's much better to be able to say and know from experience, "Yes, I make much more than that every week!"
I know I have a strong ego, but the one thing that keeps it balanced is the fact the markets will always keep you humbled. It's good to know I am in control at all times. It is also good to know the markets are much bigger than me. The number one thing I have to work on is no longer my methodology or my margining practices .They are etched in stone and is a proven winner. I have to constantly work on keep the right frame of mind towards my trading. I have to keep ice in my veins. I cannot let a trade that goes against me get the best of me. I can never let myself get back at the markets in order to make up for a bad trade.
BTW, excellent point on what you said baout making pips one day, and think it will continue. Believe it or not, I make no goals for how many pips I make. They just flow form staying within and trading within the parameters of my methodology. My percentage of gains also flows. Experience has taught me that also.
There's a lot more that could be said, but I''ll shut up for now.
I've read through this thread with great interest; fascinating stuff. Thanks to everyone who's contributed. But it strikes me that not everyone is on the same page here.
I am a relative beginner at forex (1 year's part-time experience, not profitable yet) so I'm not offering advice, but I want to make a few points.
It seems that in forex, how many pips a person can make is neither here nor there. Neither is the fact that so-and-so made 150 pips yesterday, or 5% last week or whatever. The killer in forex is the volatility that appears in your equity curve as you trade.
No-one knows the outcome of an individual trade in advance; there is an element of chance in it, at the risk of stating the obvious. And in the same way that tossing a coin over and over will sooner or later give you ten heads in a row, sooner or later you will have a long losing streak which will wipe out your account if you chance too big a percent on each trade.
The way we deal with this is by chancing only a small percentage of our accounts per trade, so that you lose, e.g half a percent or maybe even 2% if your stop gets hit.
I have the sense (perhaps wrongly) that some people reason along the lines of "I can make X many pips per day because I made it a couple of times recently. If I therefore leverage at Y times my account, I can make 19 gazillion percent per month."
But it isn't the leverage or number of pips available that's the constraining factor, rather it's the volatility. You have to be able to cope with the drawdowns that occur.
For this reason, the opinion on this subject of someone such as me who does not turn a regular profit on forex is really irrelevant*. What so-and-so did or did not make last week is irrelevant. What matters is what percentage profit ON AVERAGE can you turn in week after week? If you look at how much you've made over the past year, say, and divide by 52 (assuming you traded every week), what percentage is that?
I'd be interested to know what experienced traders say about that, and whether the 2% figure still holds up under these conditions, as an average profit (not as an absolute profit leaving out the losses, and not two days last week or whatever).
*I don't mean to flame anyone here ... I'm grateful for all contributions. I'm just trying to make sense of it for myself.