InTheMoneyStocks
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Re: Metal Stocks Poised For 10% Or More Correction In Early 2010 After Massive Runup
X down $2.00
X down $2.00
InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis
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InTheMoneyStocks
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The Media Effect
Often a case can be made that the media controls the people who live on earth. If you look back over the past fifty years many can argue that the media has actually been the main catalyst for actually electing a president or any elected official for that matter. If you go back to the 2000 election many people still shake their heads when Al Gore lost the election to George W. Bush after being the vice president of the administration that was in power during the biggest stock market rally in history in the 1990's(Clinton administration). However, as we all know President Bush was declared the controversial winner and proclaimed by the media as the person who Americans would most likely share a beer with. I'm not sure that should be a reason to get elected. If you look at the Bush verse Kerry election in 2004 the same case can be made. President Obama was was a media favorite and got all good press even when his campaign hit stumbling blocks when the Reverend Jeremiah Write statements came about. President Clinton came through numerous negative situations and is still loved in the media after White Water, Jennifer Flowers, Paula Jones, and the Monica Lewinsky scandals. Therefore, regardless of party lines the media is a powerful tool and does have an effect.
Does the media effect the markets? Many may say absolutely not. However, they can definitely put their spin on public sentiment. Just look at the current rally from the March 2009 lows. The media continues to report that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop on the stock market. Yet the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF(NYSE:IYR) is at new highs for 2009. The same can be said for Simon Property Group(NYSE:SPG) which is a leading stock. This story is talked about every single day in the media. Many traders know that when the public is looking for something rarely will it occur.
Just look at the housing market back in 2005. Stocks like KB Homes(NYSE:KBH), Toll Brothers(NYSE:TOL), D.R. Horton(NYSE
HI), and countless others were soaring to new all time highs. The media loved the housing market and in June 2005 Time Magazine had a cartoon cover of a man hugging his home with dollars flying in air. Two months later the housing top was in and a correction for the ages was underway in the housing sector. It was the positive media press that was catalyst for people believing they were missing out on buying a home or even flipping them around that time. Today delinquencies and foreclosures are at all time highs.
Currently through most of 2009 the media continues to try and call or predict every correction in the market. What ever happened to just reporting the news. The mainstream and cable media stations all have an agenda. Everyone has a bias. There is no longer any objective reporting. People are seeking the internet for their news and views. Who can blame them. The markets have still not experienced a single ten percent correction since the March low. This is not healthy market action. Healthy markets have corrections. Healthy markets rise on strong volume and pullback on light volume. Currently the markets have behaved just the opposite. In history we have never seen or had a V- bottom recovery. Currently we have a V-bottom pattern in place on the charts. While some will say there is always a first for everything I'll bet with history.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Often a case can be made that the media controls the people who live on earth. If you look back over the past fifty years many can argue that the media has actually been the main catalyst for actually electing a president or any elected official for that matter. If you go back to the 2000 election many people still shake their heads when Al Gore lost the election to George W. Bush after being the vice president of the administration that was in power during the biggest stock market rally in history in the 1990's(Clinton administration). However, as we all know President Bush was declared the controversial winner and proclaimed by the media as the person who Americans would most likely share a beer with. I'm not sure that should be a reason to get elected. If you look at the Bush verse Kerry election in 2004 the same case can be made. President Obama was was a media favorite and got all good press even when his campaign hit stumbling blocks when the Reverend Jeremiah Write statements came about. President Clinton came through numerous negative situations and is still loved in the media after White Water, Jennifer Flowers, Paula Jones, and the Monica Lewinsky scandals. Therefore, regardless of party lines the media is a powerful tool and does have an effect.
Does the media effect the markets? Many may say absolutely not. However, they can definitely put their spin on public sentiment. Just look at the current rally from the March 2009 lows. The media continues to report that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop on the stock market. Yet the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF(NYSE:IYR) is at new highs for 2009. The same can be said for Simon Property Group(NYSE:SPG) which is a leading stock. This story is talked about every single day in the media. Many traders know that when the public is looking for something rarely will it occur.
Just look at the housing market back in 2005. Stocks like KB Homes(NYSE:KBH), Toll Brothers(NYSE:TOL), D.R. Horton(NYSE
HI), and countless others were soaring to new all time highs. The media loved the housing market and in June 2005 Time Magazine had a cartoon cover of a man hugging his home with dollars flying in air. Two months later the housing top was in and a correction for the ages was underway in the housing sector. It was the positive media press that was catalyst for people believing they were missing out on buying a home or even flipping them around that time. Today delinquencies and foreclosures are at all time highs.Currently through most of 2009 the media continues to try and call or predict every correction in the market. What ever happened to just reporting the news. The mainstream and cable media stations all have an agenda. Everyone has a bias. There is no longer any objective reporting. People are seeking the internet for their news and views. Who can blame them. The markets have still not experienced a single ten percent correction since the March low. This is not healthy market action. Healthy markets have corrections. Healthy markets rise on strong volume and pullback on light volume. Currently the markets have behaved just the opposite. In history we have never seen or had a V- bottom recovery. Currently we have a V-bottom pattern in place on the charts. While some will say there is always a first for everything I'll bet with history.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
InTheMoneyStocks
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Healthy markets have corrections. (nyse: Fnm, fre, c, wfc, gs)
Since the March low when the SPX traded at 666 the market has had a rally beyond comparison. The SPX is currently trading at 1125 and this is a 460 point move in ten short months. It is important to realize since this bull run began that the market has not experienced a single 10 percent correction. This is not healthy action. This is a market on steroids and as we all know using artificial hormones are not healthy and can sometimes cause or lead to death. Therefore, it is still amazing that the majority of the talking heads in the media and the government believe this is a solid recovery.
Let’s look at some of the medication that this market is taking. First we have the Fed funds rate at zero percent. This is artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke. The last time rates were at 1.00 percent by Alan Greenspan in the early 2000's we developed the credit and housing bubble. It still amazes me that interest rates are not set by supply and demand. I guess the powers that be enjoy bubbles. Next on the list the market has massive global government stimulus plans and bailouts taking place. Someone has to pay for this money being printed and used in the future. Remember there are no free lunches in this world. 'Cash for clunkers', the $8,000 home buyer tax credit, modified mortgages and extended unemployment benefits all add and increase to the problem. Again, who is going to pay for this? This makes the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme seem like the man dressed as Santa Clause taking a few bucks out of the Salvation Army donation cup I front of the local supermarket.
What ever happened to true old fashioned capitalism, when companies could fail? It was survival of the fittest. Not survival of the fattest like American International Group (NYSE:AIG), Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), Freddie Mac(NYSE:FRE), Citi Group (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), JP Morgan Chase(NYSE:JPM), and even Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). This government actually rejoiced and helped these institutions get even bigger during the latest crisis of 2008.
Wasn't the Glass-Steagal Act of 1933 put in for a reason? This act was designed to prevent commercial banks from engaging in investment banking activities. Since the recent economic crisis occurred these institutions have and do even more investment banking. What a joke. Oh I forgot they can blame the removal of the up-tick rule or the short sellers for all their problems and not their gluttony and greed.
There are bright spots and one true bull market out there. It simply looks to be the gold market. Gold has been rising for about nine years now. There have been corrections along the way on light volume and this telling us that this market is healthy. Gold miners are another section that has performed very well; however, the commodity is the pure play. Gold could have a long way to go as the central banks in the world continue to print money as they desperately try to inflate the markets back to health. Remember gold is the one true currency from the beginning of time. There are many ways to play gold. One can use the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), Central Fund of Canada(AMEX:CEF), and Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX). There are numerous individual gold miners such as Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), and Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) just to name a few.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategists
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Since the March low when the SPX traded at 666 the market has had a rally beyond comparison. The SPX is currently trading at 1125 and this is a 460 point move in ten short months. It is important to realize since this bull run began that the market has not experienced a single 10 percent correction. This is not healthy action. This is a market on steroids and as we all know using artificial hormones are not healthy and can sometimes cause or lead to death. Therefore, it is still amazing that the majority of the talking heads in the media and the government believe this is a solid recovery.
Let’s look at some of the medication that this market is taking. First we have the Fed funds rate at zero percent. This is artificially low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke. The last time rates were at 1.00 percent by Alan Greenspan in the early 2000's we developed the credit and housing bubble. It still amazes me that interest rates are not set by supply and demand. I guess the powers that be enjoy bubbles. Next on the list the market has massive global government stimulus plans and bailouts taking place. Someone has to pay for this money being printed and used in the future. Remember there are no free lunches in this world. 'Cash for clunkers', the $8,000 home buyer tax credit, modified mortgages and extended unemployment benefits all add and increase to the problem. Again, who is going to pay for this? This makes the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme seem like the man dressed as Santa Clause taking a few bucks out of the Salvation Army donation cup I front of the local supermarket.
What ever happened to true old fashioned capitalism, when companies could fail? It was survival of the fittest. Not survival of the fattest like American International Group (NYSE:AIG), Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), Freddie Mac(NYSE:FRE), Citi Group (NYSE:C), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), JP Morgan Chase(NYSE:JPM), and even Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS). This government actually rejoiced and helped these institutions get even bigger during the latest crisis of 2008.
Wasn't the Glass-Steagal Act of 1933 put in for a reason? This act was designed to prevent commercial banks from engaging in investment banking activities. Since the recent economic crisis occurred these institutions have and do even more investment banking. What a joke. Oh I forgot they can blame the removal of the up-tick rule or the short sellers for all their problems and not their gluttony and greed.
There are bright spots and one true bull market out there. It simply looks to be the gold market. Gold has been rising for about nine years now. There have been corrections along the way on light volume and this telling us that this market is healthy. Gold miners are another section that has performed very well; however, the commodity is the pure play. Gold could have a long way to go as the central banks in the world continue to print money as they desperately try to inflate the markets back to health. Remember gold is the one true currency from the beginning of time. There are many ways to play gold. One can use the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), Central Fund of Canada(AMEX:CEF), and Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX). There are numerous individual gold miners such as Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), and Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) just to name a few.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategists
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Re: Pure Lack Of Respect As Gov't Lifts Cap On Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Fannie Mae
What a load of bollokcs .If you'te expecting "fairness" ,"decency", what in heavens name are you doing in the markets ,have a sex change and become a nun ,OR move to another planet to get your 'ideals' delivered.Those 'ideals' just don't belong in this society and certainly not in the markets which afterall simply reflect societies collective attempt to enrich itself.
Everybody and I mean everbody tries to meet theirown goals so why would you expect politicians to be any different ? Really naive son.
What a load of bollokcs .If you'te expecting "fairness" ,"decency", what in heavens name are you doing in the markets ,have a sex change and become a nun ,OR move to another planet to get your 'ideals' delivered.Those 'ideals' just don't belong in this society and certainly not in the markets which afterall simply reflect societies collective attempt to enrich itself.
Everybody and I mean everbody tries to meet theirown goals so why would you expect politicians to be any different ? Really naive son.
InTheMoneyStocks
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Market SHAKE, Gold RATTLE, And Dollar ROLL For 2010
The SPX (NYSE:SPY) market is trading higher to start the first trading session of 2010. This all comes on the back of a weaker U.S. Dollar (NYSE:UUP). Many traders and investors have been discounting the weak dollar/stronger stock market relationship over the past three weeks as both have moved higher together. Today that old relationship is certainly alive and well as the dollar is getting crushed and the market is soaring. Obviously gold (NYSE:GLD), oil(NYSE:USO), and agriculture stocks such as Potash(NYSEOT) are all higher today. In the past the market usually trades higher during the first few days of the new trading year. The key is to see what it does once the volume comes back into the markets. It is said that the market goes the same way as the month of January goes. Last January was negative month and the market staged a historic rally in 2009. Therefore, watch the leading stocks and indexes going forward and don't listen to any old market sayings.
When the dollar is weak it is important to look at how leading stocks trade that are not inflationary or commodity related. Apple Computer (Nasdaq:AAPL), Google (Nasdaq:GOOG), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), are all leading stock that are trading higher today that are not commodity related. On the flip side leading stocks such as BIDU Inc (NYSE:BIDU), and Amazon (Nasdaq:AMZN) are actually negative on the day showing weak relative strength intra day. This is reason for concern when some leaders are not participating in such a big rally.
What will 2010 bring for the markets? Many of the talking heads in the media are looking for another huge year. Personally, I would not go out and buy the new Ferrari just yet. Throughout history the nine year of a decade is usually a very bullish year. This is not the same case for a zero year of a decade. This year may bring people back to reality a little bit. The major indexes are up over fifty percent from the March 2009 low. Do they go back to new all time’s highs again this year?
The 10 and 30 year bond yields have been rising lately and this could put some more pressure on the already depressed housing market as mortgage rates will rise. The last time the 10 yr bond yield reached 4.00% the stock market actually had a four week pullback in June 2009. This was as close to a correction as the market has seen since the March lows. We are getting close to that level again so beware of 2010.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
The SPX (NYSE:SPY) market is trading higher to start the first trading session of 2010. This all comes on the back of a weaker U.S. Dollar (NYSE:UUP). Many traders and investors have been discounting the weak dollar/stronger stock market relationship over the past three weeks as both have moved higher together. Today that old relationship is certainly alive and well as the dollar is getting crushed and the market is soaring. Obviously gold (NYSE:GLD), oil(NYSE:USO), and agriculture stocks such as Potash(NYSE
OT) are all higher today. In the past the market usually trades higher during the first few days of the new trading year. The key is to see what it does once the volume comes back into the markets. It is said that the market goes the same way as the month of January goes. Last January was negative month and the market staged a historic rally in 2009. Therefore, watch the leading stocks and indexes going forward and don't listen to any old market sayings.When the dollar is weak it is important to look at how leading stocks trade that are not inflationary or commodity related. Apple Computer (Nasdaq:AAPL), Google (Nasdaq:GOOG), JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), are all leading stock that are trading higher today that are not commodity related. On the flip side leading stocks such as BIDU Inc (NYSE:BIDU), and Amazon (Nasdaq:AMZN) are actually negative on the day showing weak relative strength intra day. This is reason for concern when some leaders are not participating in such a big rally.
What will 2010 bring for the markets? Many of the talking heads in the media are looking for another huge year. Personally, I would not go out and buy the new Ferrari just yet. Throughout history the nine year of a decade is usually a very bullish year. This is not the same case for a zero year of a decade. This year may bring people back to reality a little bit. The major indexes are up over fifty percent from the March 2009 low. Do they go back to new all time’s highs again this year?
The 10 and 30 year bond yields have been rising lately and this could put some more pressure on the already depressed housing market as mortgage rates will rise. The last time the 10 yr bond yield reached 4.00% the stock market actually had a four week pullback in June 2009. This was as close to a correction as the market has seen since the March lows. We are getting close to that level again so beware of 2010.
Nicholas Santiago,
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
InTheMoneyStocks
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Spherix Incorporated (NasdaqCM: SPEX) Is Ready To Rumble With Its Diabetes Drug
Spherix Incorporated (NasdaqCM: SPEX), a small biotech company that may be on the verge of a major drug in the diabetes fight. The key drug is Naturlose which is a naturally occuring sugar substitute. It is currently in phase III clinical trials and looks extremely promising.
The key to this drug is that it is natural. Not harmful to those that take it. It has shown to decrease weight, glucose spike blunting, treatment of type 2 diabetes, gut health and improved fetal survival and development. In addition, it tastes essentially the same as table sugar. It may eventually be a substitute in low calorie foods as well replacing the low or no calorie sweeteners currently on the market which have been tied to cancer.
SPEX is currently a micro cap biotech. This sector has been on fire lately and this stock looks to be on the verge of a major move. It is currently trading at $1.32 per share. Should this drug see positive phase III results and FDA approval, it could rocket to $5.00 in days.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Spherix Incorporated (NasdaqCM: SPEX), a small biotech company that may be on the verge of a major drug in the diabetes fight. The key drug is Naturlose which is a naturally occuring sugar substitute. It is currently in phase III clinical trials and looks extremely promising.
The key to this drug is that it is natural. Not harmful to those that take it. It has shown to decrease weight, glucose spike blunting, treatment of type 2 diabetes, gut health and improved fetal survival and development. In addition, it tastes essentially the same as table sugar. It may eventually be a substitute in low calorie foods as well replacing the low or no calorie sweeteners currently on the market which have been tied to cancer.
SPEX is currently a micro cap biotech. This sector has been on fire lately and this stock looks to be on the verge of a major move. It is currently trading at $1.32 per share. Should this drug see positive phase III results and FDA approval, it could rocket to $5.00 in days.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
B
Black Swan
Re: Spherix Incorporated (NasdaqCM: SPEX) Is Ready To Rumble With Its Diabetes Drug
"I hope this is better than the last batch of 5hit you gave me. Produced more wood than Ron Jeremy. I don't want you to yell, "Reco!" anymore. Know what you should yell? "Timber!" Yeah, Mr. Fookin' wood. I hear you fookin makin' your calls. It's bull5hit, all right? I mean if you want them off the phone so bad, why don't you just hang up? You should get them excited. You know, excited? They should beg for a broker on the first call...."
"I hope this is better than the last batch of 5hit you gave me. Produced more wood than Ron Jeremy. I don't want you to yell, "Reco!" anymore. Know what you should yell? "Timber!" Yeah, Mr. Fookin' wood. I hear you fookin makin' your calls. It's bull5hit, all right? I mean if you want them off the phone so bad, why don't you just hang up? You should get them excited. You know, excited? They should beg for a broker on the first call...."
Re: Spherix Incorporated (NasdaqCM: SPEX) Is Ready To Rumble With Its Diabetes Drug
Its a microcap stock, they are trying to pump it up as part of a scam. I mean read this nonsense from their website,
quote - Testimonials
"I sound like a broken record, but thanks G, out of SPEX for .25, trading with you is like printing money."
Todd W." - unquote.
Its a microcap stock, they are trying to pump it up as part of a scam. I mean read this nonsense from their website,
quote - Testimonials
"I sound like a broken record, but thanks G, out of SPEX for .25, trading with you is like printing money."
Todd W." - unquote.
InTheMoneyStocks
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No Brainer Play Of The Day: China Precision Steel, Inc. (NasdaqCM: CPSL)...China Meta
The no brainer play of the day is brought to you by the letter P for Profits and the symbol $. China Precision Steel, Inc. (NasdaqCM: CPSL) is without a doubt the highest probability runner here on the back of China commodity stocks ripping higher. Look at the charts of Sutor Technology Group Limited (NasdaqCM: SUTR) and China Direct Industries, Inc. (NasdaqGM: CDII). Both stocks are ripping over the last week and well on their way to 50% or more gains.
China Precision Steel, Inc. is in the right sector being: Steel. Look at steel stocks like United States Steel (NYSE: X) on the charts. This stock has soared as well. The last arena to conquer for a short term swing trade is China steel plays. With most of them already running, the last one is China Precision Steel, Inc. While it trades at $2.25 I have accumulated here and below over the last week in anticipation of this eventual run. Time will tell if I am right but with the moves in SUTR and CDII, I think it is a ticking time bomb. Of course this is just my humble opinion.
The sympathy play is one of my favorite high percentage plays that I utilize. I am giving it an extreme upside bias with a target at $2.75. However, I do believe it has a high probability of getting over $3.00. I will look to start taking profits as it gets into the target area.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
By Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway on January 7th, 2010 11:48am Eastern Time
$2.50 - $3.88
$1.20 - $2.36
$2.10 - ???
The no brainer play of the day is brought to you by the letter P for Profits and the symbol $. China Precision Steel, Inc. (NasdaqCM: CPSL) is without a doubt the highest probability runner here on the back of China commodity stocks ripping higher. Look at the charts of Sutor Technology Group Limited (NasdaqCM: SUTR) and China Direct Industries, Inc. (NasdaqGM: CDII). Both stocks are ripping over the last week and well on their way to 50% or more gains.
China Precision Steel, Inc. is in the right sector being: Steel. Look at steel stocks like United States Steel (NYSE: X) on the charts. This stock has soared as well. The last arena to conquer for a short term swing trade is China steel plays. With most of them already running, the last one is China Precision Steel, Inc. While it trades at $2.25 I have accumulated here and below over the last week in anticipation of this eventual run. Time will tell if I am right but with the moves in SUTR and CDII, I think it is a ticking time bomb. Of course this is just my humble opinion.
The sympathy play is one of my favorite high percentage plays that I utilize. I am giving it an extreme upside bias with a target at $2.75. However, I do believe it has a high probability of getting over $3.00. I will look to start taking profits as it gets into the target area.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
By Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway on January 7th, 2010 11:48am Eastern Time
$2.50 - $3.88
$1.20 - $2.36
$2.10 - ???
InTheMoneyStocks
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How To Not Be Fooled By The Jobs Report And Its Impact On The Recovery
As the markets float slightly to the downside, the market continues to digest the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data from this morning. Non Farm Payrolls for December dropped by 85,000. This was slightly below estimates as many analysts had expected a positive growth in the jobs number. The November Non Farm Payroll number was adjusted slightly to a positive number. While overall, this report was not what many were hoping for, the real drama should be the unemployment rate.
While at first glance, the unemployment rate stayed at 10%, the same as in November, the key to this number is looking at how many people took themselves out of the work force. This number was 600,000+. That means that if those people were still looking for jobs, the unemployment rate would have been close to 10.5%. What causes people to take themselves out of considering a job or looking for a job? The easy answer is lack of jobs and the holidays. When someone searches and searches for a job for months and finds nothing, they may just stop looking for a job. In addition, the holidays are a time when most people think companies are not hiring and people spend more time with their families. That can also be a key to excluding oneself from looking for a job. As soon as someone stops looking, they are not considered unemployed.
If you add together the unemployed, under employed and those that are not currently seeking work, the real unemployment rate is estimated at 17.3%. This shows that there is still no recovery in jobs. A jobless recovery means a stimulus spending recovery. Yes folks, the only reason this market is recovering is due to the printing of trillions of dollars. In addition, long term this means soaring taxes and a crashing dollar. The writing is on the wall.
As the markets are holding steady, slightly to the downside, we are seeing technology which had been hammered over the last two sessions begin to recovery a little. Stocks like Google Inc. (NasdaqGS: GOOG), Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS: AAPL) are bouncing. GOOG dropped 35 dollars in the last three days and was long due for a bounce. In addition, the dollar is coming down sharply on the poor jobs data. That is giving a small push to commodities. The laggards today are the financial stocks like Goldman Sachs Grp (NYSE: GS) and JP Morgan Chase Co (NYSE: JPM). The financial stocks have had a great run over the last week off of a tremendous bull flag pattern I recognized. I signaled a pullback was in order yesterday to my premium subscribers. Sure enough, the financial stocks are pulling back nicely. Stay tuned to future analysis and calls. Live, Learn, Profit!
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
As the markets float slightly to the downside, the market continues to digest the Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data from this morning. Non Farm Payrolls for December dropped by 85,000. This was slightly below estimates as many analysts had expected a positive growth in the jobs number. The November Non Farm Payroll number was adjusted slightly to a positive number. While overall, this report was not what many were hoping for, the real drama should be the unemployment rate.
While at first glance, the unemployment rate stayed at 10%, the same as in November, the key to this number is looking at how many people took themselves out of the work force. This number was 600,000+. That means that if those people were still looking for jobs, the unemployment rate would have been close to 10.5%. What causes people to take themselves out of considering a job or looking for a job? The easy answer is lack of jobs and the holidays. When someone searches and searches for a job for months and finds nothing, they may just stop looking for a job. In addition, the holidays are a time when most people think companies are not hiring and people spend more time with their families. That can also be a key to excluding oneself from looking for a job. As soon as someone stops looking, they are not considered unemployed.
If you add together the unemployed, under employed and those that are not currently seeking work, the real unemployment rate is estimated at 17.3%. This shows that there is still no recovery in jobs. A jobless recovery means a stimulus spending recovery. Yes folks, the only reason this market is recovering is due to the printing of trillions of dollars. In addition, long term this means soaring taxes and a crashing dollar. The writing is on the wall.
As the markets are holding steady, slightly to the downside, we are seeing technology which had been hammered over the last two sessions begin to recovery a little. Stocks like Google Inc. (NasdaqGS: GOOG), Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN), Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS: AAPL) are bouncing. GOOG dropped 35 dollars in the last three days and was long due for a bounce. In addition, the dollar is coming down sharply on the poor jobs data. That is giving a small push to commodities. The laggards today are the financial stocks like Goldman Sachs Grp (NYSE: GS) and JP Morgan Chase Co (NYSE: JPM). The financial stocks have had a great run over the last week off of a tremendous bull flag pattern I recognized. I signaled a pullback was in order yesterday to my premium subscribers. Sure enough, the financial stocks are pulling back nicely. Stay tuned to future analysis and calls. Live, Learn, Profit!
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Jaydee
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Re: How To Not Be Fooled By The Jobs Report And Its Impact On The Recovery
Interesting stuff. So I have a point of reference, what kind of numbers of people took themselves out of the workforce over the preceding months? I.e. How bad is the 600,000 relative to November, October, September, etc 2009?
Interesting stuff. So I have a point of reference, what kind of numbers of people took themselves out of the workforce over the preceding months? I.e. How bad is the 600,000 relative to November, October, September, etc 2009?
robster970
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Re: How To Not Be Fooled By The Jobs Report And Its Impact On The Recovery
01-08-2010 -85K -2K 4K
12-04-2009 4K -125K -111K
11-06-2009 -111K -175K -219K
10-02-2009 -219K -188K -201K
09-04-2009 -201K -223K -276K
08-07-2009 -276K -345 -276K
07-02-2009 -467K -375K -322K
06-05-2009 -322K -521K -504K
05-08-2009 -504K -620K -699K
04-03-2009 -699K -658K -651K
The expectation was to hit 0 this month but it was -85k, which in the grand scheme of things is not far from 0 which is why it rallied.
Look at the daily and weekly trend for the index. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks right now - it's on a run. Make hay whilst the sun shines.
Incidentally, overpriced is relative. If you can buy US or dollar denominated assets cheap because USD is cheap in relation to other currencies,why wouldn't you buy 'undervalued' assets. Carry trade is accounting for a lot of what is going on IMO. As long as the fed don't rein in the 3trillion greenbacks they pumped into the world, others are going to have a fest.
01-08-2010 -85K -2K 4K
12-04-2009 4K -125K -111K
11-06-2009 -111K -175K -219K
10-02-2009 -219K -188K -201K
09-04-2009 -201K -223K -276K
08-07-2009 -276K -345 -276K
07-02-2009 -467K -375K -322K
06-05-2009 -322K -521K -504K
05-08-2009 -504K -620K -699K
04-03-2009 -699K -658K -651K
The expectation was to hit 0 this month but it was -85k, which in the grand scheme of things is not far from 0 which is why it rallied.
Look at the daily and weekly trend for the index. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks right now - it's on a run. Make hay whilst the sun shines.
Incidentally, overpriced is relative. If you can buy US or dollar denominated assets cheap because USD is cheap in relation to other currencies,why wouldn't you buy 'undervalued' assets. Carry trade is accounting for a lot of what is going on IMO. As long as the fed don't rein in the 3trillion greenbacks they pumped into the world, others are going to have a fest.
Benton D Struckcheon
Well-known member
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Re: How To Not Be Fooled By The Jobs Report And Its Impact On The Recovery
Actually, it's that traders know that in the early stages of a recovery, the establishment survey tends not to pick up new jobs. Down 85k in the establishment survey could easily wind up being revised up to flat or even mildly positive once all the info is in.
Actually, it's that traders know that in the early stages of a recovery, the establishment survey tends not to pick up new jobs. Down 85k in the establishment survey could easily wind up being revised up to flat or even mildly positive once all the info is in.
robster970
Guest Author
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Re: How To Not Be Fooled By The Jobs Report And Its Impact On The Recovery
Thanks for the link - you learn something new every day.....
Thanks for the link - you learn something new every day.....
InTheMoneyStocks
Experienced member
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SPY Back Tests Break Down Trend Line From Yesterday. Major Resistance In Play
The SPY broke through a key trend line yesterday. Today it is retesting that level on this move up. Should be strong resistance in this area.
The SPY broke through a key trend line yesterday. Today it is retesting that level on this move up. Should be strong resistance in this area.
InTheMoneyStocks
Experienced member
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TECHNOLOGY: What Is Left In The Tank?
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), Apple Computer (Nasdaq:AAPL), Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) and most other technology stocks are are leading the markets higher today. This looks to be a run up into earnings as most major technology stocks will be reporting earnings within the next few weeks. As for AAPL they are unveiling a new product called the Tablet and this could be a buy the rumor sell the news type of event into the release of the new product.
The technology heavy NASDAQ has rallied over 80 percent from it's March 2009 lows. There is just one big question to ask. Is this earnings season already priced in? Many tech leaders are near or at new 52 week highs. Even tech bell weathers such as Cisco Systems (Nasdaq:CSCO), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), and Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL) are all at new 52 week highs. These particular stocks have a tremendous amount of shares outstanding. The moves that have taken place in 2009 are nothing short of amazing. How much can be left in the tank after this earnings season?
From a chartist's or technical trader's point of view it would seem that a fair share of the move is baked into the current price already. This does not mean that certain stocks won't trade higher. Many will move to new highs. However, most stocks that have already moved higher into their earnings release, may and often pullback after its announcement. This is how most professional technical traders will view the markets during earnings season.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), Apple Computer (Nasdaq:AAPL), Google (Nasdaq:GOOG) and most other technology stocks are are leading the markets higher today. This looks to be a run up into earnings as most major technology stocks will be reporting earnings within the next few weeks. As for AAPL they are unveiling a new product called the Tablet and this could be a buy the rumor sell the news type of event into the release of the new product.
The technology heavy NASDAQ has rallied over 80 percent from it's March 2009 lows. There is just one big question to ask. Is this earnings season already priced in? Many tech leaders are near or at new 52 week highs. Even tech bell weathers such as Cisco Systems (Nasdaq:CSCO), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT), and Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL) are all at new 52 week highs. These particular stocks have a tremendous amount of shares outstanding. The moves that have taken place in 2009 are nothing short of amazing. How much can be left in the tank after this earnings season?
From a chartist's or technical trader's point of view it would seem that a fair share of the move is baked into the current price already. This does not mean that certain stocks won't trade higher. Many will move to new highs. However, most stocks that have already moved higher into their earnings release, may and often pullback after its announcement. This is how most professional technical traders will view the markets during earnings season.
Nicholas Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
InTheMoneyStocks
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The Market And Many Key Stocks Hover On Key Support
The market and key stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and others are hovering on key support now on an intra day basis. This tells us the market is trying to put in a bottom for the day here. Watch as volume lightens up to see if the market is pushed slightly off the lows into the close. Anyway you cut it, this is an ugly down day. The markets have sold on the back of earnings from IBM, BAC, WFC, MS as well as the dollar ripping higher on the republican win in MA and some economic data this morning on Housing Starts and the Producer Price Index. Each time any major earnings are released the market is getting slammed. The key is to follow the technicals to find out if the market is going higher tomorrow or lower.
The market and key stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and others are hovering on key support now on an intra day basis. This tells us the market is trying to put in a bottom for the day here. Watch as volume lightens up to see if the market is pushed slightly off the lows into the close. Anyway you cut it, this is an ugly down day. The markets have sold on the back of earnings from IBM, BAC, WFC, MS as well as the dollar ripping higher on the republican win in MA and some economic data this morning on Housing Starts and the Producer Price Index. Each time any major earnings are released the market is getting slammed. The key is to follow the technicals to find out if the market is going higher tomorrow or lower.
InTheMoneyStocks
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Insight Into Goldman Sachs Earnings...What Main Street Should Be Worried About
Goldman Sachs Grp. (NYSE: GS) reported net profits of $8.20 per share on revenue of $9.62 billion. This blew away the earnings per share number which was expected at $5.20, however, missed the revenue number slightly which had been expected at $9.65 billion. When analyzing these numbers, this is just the start.
The key with Goldman Sachs that will worry Wall Street and should truly bother Main Street is that not only did Goldman Sachs not beat revenues which means their earnings beat was due to cost cutting, but, two-thirds of their revenue was derived from trading! That is correct, they made over $6 billion just from trading. Why is that shocking? Well as we know, trading can be up and down. Normal people lose some and win some. Even a great trader has a lousy trade here and there. Granted, Goldman Sachs is way above a great trader, they have computer programs to push the markets in certain directions, buy program abilities and connections to the government that other companies only dream of.
Why should Main Street be worried? Again, because two-thirds of their revenue came from computer trading programs and Goldman Sachs traders. Main Street needs to be assured these trading programs and traders are not manipulating, bullying the markets and pushing the markets in a direction on purpose to take the "little persons" money. If Goldman Sachs is paying billions in bonuses, whether in stock or profits, Main Street needs to know their trading profits are not out of the wallets of hard working Americans getting "played". Transfer of wealth from the small to the big is not the answer to a recovering economy just a divergence between rich and poor.
This applies to all other major Wall Street firms as well, though Goldman Sachs is by far the biggest gorilla in the room. JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and Bank Of America Cp. (NYSE: BAC) are others. Watch carefully the proposals by President Obama on excessive risk taking.
Commentary From A Concerned Chief Market Strategist.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Goldman Sachs Grp. (NYSE: GS) reported net profits of $8.20 per share on revenue of $9.62 billion. This blew away the earnings per share number which was expected at $5.20, however, missed the revenue number slightly which had been expected at $9.65 billion. When analyzing these numbers, this is just the start.
The key with Goldman Sachs that will worry Wall Street and should truly bother Main Street is that not only did Goldman Sachs not beat revenues which means their earnings beat was due to cost cutting, but, two-thirds of their revenue was derived from trading! That is correct, they made over $6 billion just from trading. Why is that shocking? Well as we know, trading can be up and down. Normal people lose some and win some. Even a great trader has a lousy trade here and there. Granted, Goldman Sachs is way above a great trader, they have computer programs to push the markets in certain directions, buy program abilities and connections to the government that other companies only dream of.
Why should Main Street be worried? Again, because two-thirds of their revenue came from computer trading programs and Goldman Sachs traders. Main Street needs to be assured these trading programs and traders are not manipulating, bullying the markets and pushing the markets in a direction on purpose to take the "little persons" money. If Goldman Sachs is paying billions in bonuses, whether in stock or profits, Main Street needs to know their trading profits are not out of the wallets of hard working Americans getting "played". Transfer of wealth from the small to the big is not the answer to a recovering economy just a divergence between rich and poor.
This applies to all other major Wall Street firms as well, though Goldman Sachs is by far the biggest gorilla in the room. JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) and Bank Of America Cp. (NYSE: BAC) are others. Watch carefully the proposals by President Obama on excessive risk taking.
Commentary From A Concerned Chief Market Strategist.
Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com
Last edited:
InTheMoneyStocks
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Market Gaps Higher Then Slowly Fades Forming Bullish Pattern...Volume Light As Market
Last week was brutal for the markets. After nearly a 600 point DOW sell off, the markets gapped higher this morning. Talk that Federal Reserve Head Ben Bernanke would be confirmed into a second term later this week helped ease Wall Streets fears. In addition, there was a technically oversold market with many key stocks coming into super support these were highlighted on the Hot Charts & Alerts and Pro Trader Watch List. A gap up was somewhat of a no brainer based on buyers stepping up. Remember, every sell off has been a buying opportunity. Investors will use that until it is proven over and over to not work. Following the gapup in the markets today, we got Existing Home Sales. Existing Home Sales dropped by 16.5%. That is a very sharp decline but not surprising following the first time home buyer tax credit, as many utilized that into the end of 2009. The markets since the open have traded sideways to lower. This has continued for the first two hours of the market. Much of the early gains have vanished but technically speaking, there is still an in spirit of bull flag in play. Watch this pattern. Should a close of a 10 minute candle occur below the gap fill level, this will be negated and we could dump out. The odds of that happening though are minimal.
Last week was brutal for the markets. After nearly a 600 point DOW sell off, the markets gapped higher this morning. Talk that Federal Reserve Head Ben Bernanke would be confirmed into a second term later this week helped ease Wall Streets fears. In addition, there was a technically oversold market with many key stocks coming into super support these were highlighted on the Hot Charts & Alerts and Pro Trader Watch List. A gap up was somewhat of a no brainer based on buyers stepping up. Remember, every sell off has been a buying opportunity. Investors will use that until it is proven over and over to not work. Following the gapup in the markets today, we got Existing Home Sales. Existing Home Sales dropped by 16.5%. That is a very sharp decline but not surprising following the first time home buyer tax credit, as many utilized that into the end of 2009. The markets since the open have traded sideways to lower. This has continued for the first two hours of the market. Much of the early gains have vanished but technically speaking, there is still an in spirit of bull flag in play. Watch this pattern. Should a close of a 10 minute candle occur below the gap fill level, this will be negated and we could dump out. The odds of that happening though are minimal.
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