IFC Markets Analytics

[IFCM]

Third quarter US GDP

Today at 14:30 (CET) we expect the release of two economic indicators: Core retail sales, CRS in Canada and the preliminary Q3 GDP in the US. CRS is released monthly by Statistics Canada and shows a relative change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, which account for 20% of the total volume. CRS is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers, based on the sampling of different types of retail stores. The index defines long-term trends in consumer activity. The quarterly US GDP is also of interest primarily for long-term investors. Let us remind you that GDP expresses the cost of manufactured goods and services and adjusted for inflation. The GDP indicator shows the change in values of the previous quarter (%).In our opinion, the greatest volatility is expected today from the US currency relative to other liquid instruments.

Here we consider the USD/CAD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is preparing to move in the direction of the green zone, as evidenced by the Parabolic reversal. The fractal support level at 1.11835 is crossing the daily bearish trend line, which makes this mark suitable for reliable risk mitigation of a long position. A pending buy order can be placed above 1.13146, which is also confirmed by Parabolic historical values and the fractal. Conservative traders are recommended to look for the RSI-Bars resistance level breakout at 56.1854%. This signal must confirm the opening of a pending order.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal low. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 1.13146
Stop loss below 1.11835

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Unemployment Claims, US

Today at 14:30 (CET) we expect the release of two US economic indicators: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims over the past week. The first indicator has long-term impact on the market. It is released monthly by the US Census Bureau. It does not include transportation items: orders for cars and airplanes. Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods allows evaluating the outlook for production development and the attraction of long-term investment. The second indicator, Unemployment Claims, is based on the weekly data and shows the local labor market conditions. The data is published in a weekly report by the Department of Labor. The index allows estimating the domestic demand dynamics and the consumer loan potential for the US economy stimulus. In our opinion, the greatest volatility is expected today from the US currency relative to other liquid instruments.

Here we consider the USD/CHF currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is preparing to move in the direction of the green zone, as evidenced by the Donchian Channel reversal. The fractal support level at 0.95637 is crossing the daily bullish trend line, which makes this mark suitable for reliable risk mitigation of a long position. A pending buy order can be placed above 0.97183, which is also confirmed by Parabolic historical values and the Bill Williams fractal. Conservative traders are recommended to look for the RSI-Bars resistance level breakout at 62.9730%. This signal must confirm the opening of a pending order.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal low. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 0.97183
Stop loss below 0.95637

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Gold prices complete retracing

Let us consider the daily price chart of XAUUSD (Gold) futures. The price is moving in the limits of W1 and D1 bearish trend, containing the falling Donchian Channel. At the moment, we can observe the price retracement completion: the last bar peak of RSI-Bars oscillator is located on the border of the resistance trend line, and that means a prompt price reversal is about to happen. The corresponding Parabolic confirmation will be obtained after the support level breakout at 1162.82, located below next to the last Bill Williams fractal. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order with Stop Loss placed above $1208.85 per troy ounce. This level is confirmed by the upper Donchian Channel boundary and the last resistance fractal.

Currently, we do not have a confirmatory bearish signal looking at the trading volume on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. For this reason, conservative traders are recommended to wait for the level of 375000 contracts to be outperformed: in this case, we can be sure in the trend continuation. For the trading volume data please click here.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1162.82
Stop loss above 1208.85

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Bearish expectations

Here we consider the EURUSD currency pair on the D1 chart. The price is moving in the limits of W1 and D1 bearish downtrend, containing the falling Donchian Channel. At the moment, we can observe the price retracement completion: the last bar peak of RSI-Bars oscillator is located on the border of the overbought zone, and that means a prompt price reversal is about to happen when the oscillator signal leaves the triangle area. Parabolic values are moving along the daily trend line, confirming the trend. Donchian Channel confirmation will be obtained after the support level breakout at 1.23505, located below last two Bill Williams fractals. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order with Stop Loss placed above 1.26072. This level is confirmed by the upper Donchian Channel boundary and the last resistance fractal.

Currently, we do not have a confirmatory bearish signal looking at the trading volume on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. For this reason, conservative traders are recommended to wait for the level of 450000 contracts to be outperformed: in this case, we can be sure in the trend continuation. For the trading volume data please click here.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.23505
Stop loss above 1.26072

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

OPEC: dollar appreciation

The fallen oil futures prices after the OPEC meeting resulted in a significant depreciation of commodity currencies against the US dollar: it was in favour of USD and led to a significant strengthening of the dollar index. Today at 14:00 CET we expect the monthly release of ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States. This diffusion index is based on a survey of 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, which evaluate employment, output volume, orders and stockpiles. It is the most important economic indicator as it permits obtaining preliminary information on manufacturing activity which affects the investor optimism. In our opinion, the greatest volatility is expected today from the US currency relative to other liquid instruments of the currency market.

Here we consider the GBP/USD currency pair on the D1 chart. The price is preparing to move in the direction of the red zone, as evidenced by the Parabolic reversal. The fractal resistance level at 1.58410 is crossing the daily bearish trend line, which makes this mark suitable for reliable risk mitigation of a short position. This level is also confirmed by the upper Donchian Channel boundary. A pending sell order can be placed below 1.55784, which is confirmed by Parabolic historical values and the Bill Williams fractal. Conservative traders are recommended to look for the RSI-Bars support level breakout at 22.6194%. This signal must confirm the opening of a pending order. We can see the volume of futures traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange outperformed the highest level of 125000 contracts: the downtrend is likely to maintain. The trading volume confirms the birth of a new trend.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.55784
Stop loss above 1.58410

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Retracement completion

Let us consider the daily price chart of XAUUSD(GOLD) instrument. The price is moving in the limits of W1 and D1 bearish trend, containing the falling Donchian Channel. At the moment, we can observe the price retracement completion: the last bar peak of RSI-Bars oscillator is located on the border of the overbought zone, and that confirms a price reversal is about to happen when the oscillator signal breaks the support level at 16.5854%. The corresponding Parabolic confirmation will be obtained after the support level breakout at 1128.95, located below next to the last Bill Williams fractal and the Donchian Channel border. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order with Stop Loss placed above 1258.35. This level is confirmed by the upper Donchian Channel boundary and the D1 trend line.

Currently, we have a confirmatory bearish signal looking at the volume of gold futures and options traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The number of contracts outperformed the last level of 375000, and it is still advancing. For the trading volume data please click here.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal high. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1128.95
Stop loss above 1258.35

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

BOC Rate Statement

Today we expect the release of two indicators which can affect significantly the Canadian dollar volatility. In the first place, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be published at 14:15 CET, released monthly by Automatic Data Processing. The parameters are based on the study of anonymous data from around 400.000 US business clients, excluding the farming industry and government. The preliminary estimate of employment rate is released two days before the publication of Nonfarm. That is why this indicator is worth a closer look. Employment rate is the key factor influencing the US consumer demand. If the index falls below the expected value, it will almost certainly result in the US currency weakening. Two hours later the Bank of Canada will publish the Rate Statement and cast light upon the economic situation development. We assume that the oil market restructuring and fallen energy prices may lead to the monetary policy revision of the largest exporter in favour of easing.

Here we consider the USDCAD currency pair on the D1 chart. The price is moving in the limits of W1 and D1 bullish trend, containing the rising Donchian Channel. Parabolic values are moving along the D1 trend line, confirming the trend direction. The final oscillator confirmation will be obtained after the local resistance level breakout at 73.2061%: this level is strengthened by “triple top” chart pattern, marked in red ellipse. In our opinion, this event will coincide with the price level intersection at 1.14735. This mark can be used for opening a pending buy order with Stop Loss placed below 1.11785. Both levels are confirmed by Donchian Channel boundaries, Parabolic historical values and Bill Williams fractals.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal low. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 1.14735
Stop loss below 1.11785

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Building Permits

Today at 14:30 (CET) we expect the release of Building Permits in Canada. The indicator is released monthly and shows the number of permits for new construction, issued by the government. Building Permits data permits estimating the growth potential of the real estate sector and, as a result, goods of secondary demand and technology sector. The reduced index values are perceived by investors as a negative signal for domestic consumption and production. If the value is worse than expected, we can count on further growth of USDCAD currency pair.

Here we consider this instrument on the H4 chart. The price is moving upwards within the W1, D1 and H4 price channel: bullish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. ParabolicSAR historical values confirm the H4 trend line and cross the lower boundary of Donchian Channel. Two graphic bullish signals are received: the breakout of the triangle side on the price chart, and a similar graphic pattern on the RSI-Bars oscillator chart. Note that RSI-Bars oscillator has justified itself as a leading indicator, because its graphic pattern was formed a few hours earlier (!).

The volume of futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is growing: it confirms the trend on the D1 chart. For monitoring the liquidity evolution click here. A pending buy order may be placed above the resistance at 1.14789. This mark is confirmed by a Bill Williams fractal and the upper boundary of the Donchian Channel. Stop Loss is better to be placed below the support fractal at 1.13805. It is important to note that this level crosses the upper triangle side and it reinforces its significance.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal low. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 1.14789
Stop loss below 1.13805

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Industrial production

Here we consider the GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is moving within the limits of D1 and H4 downtrend channel: bearish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. Donchian Channel (13) is also demonstrating a negative bias, confirming the trend. At the moment there are no signs of a steady direction looking at the RSI-Bars oscillator: a channel was formed which has a high probability to be broken downwards at 26.48%. We believe that this signal would coincide with the price level crossing the fractal support at 1.55326. Having reached this level, we would get confirmatory signals: Parabolic values would indicate a bearish slope and Donchian channel would be destroyed. Stop Loss is recommended to be placed above 1.57323, strengthened by the Bill Williams fractal, Parabolic historical values and Donchian Channel upper boundary.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.55326
Stop loss above 1.57323

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

RBNZ Rate Statement

Today we consider AUD/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is moving within the limits of D1 and H4 downtrend channel: bearish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. Donchian Channel (13) is also demonstrating a negative bias, confirming the trend. At the moment there are no signs of a steady direction looking at the RSI-Bars oscillator: a local overbought level is formed at 53.7114%, which was confirmed three times by the indicator signal. We believe that the formation of a new high below this level will be preceded by the intersection of a fractal price support level at 0.82183. Having reached this level, we would get confirmatory signals: Parabolic values would indicate a bearish slope and Donchian channel would be destroyed. Stop Loss is recommended to be placed above 0.83743, strengthened by the Bill Williams fractal, Parabolic historical values and Donchian Channel upper boundary.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 0.82183
Stop loss above 0.83743

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Core Retail Sales

Today at 14:30 CET two key indicators of the US economy are to be released: Core Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims. The first indicator is released monthly by the US Census Bureau and, therefore, it is of interest for position trading. CRS shows a relative change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles, which account for 20% of the total volume. The index defines the consumer confidence. Less important indicator, Initial Claims, is projected on the basis of previous NonFarm performance. The data is published weekly by the Ministry of Labor. The indicator allows evaluating the domestic demand dynamics and the potential of consumer lending for the US economy stimulation. We assume that the release of both indicators would result in significant volatility of the US dollar against the most liquid instruments.

Here we consider GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is moving sideways, which is expected to finish with the support breakout at 1.56418 in the D1 trend direction. It occurs at the same time with the Parabolic downside reversal and the Donchian Channel bias change. Conservative traders are also recommended to get a confirmatory signal on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator. At the moment, the oscillator line has approached the local resistance level at 73.8228% and is ready for reversal. The completion of bullish trend should be expected after the breakout at 49.5445%. Partially, Take profit may be possibly placed at 1.55355. Stop Loss is better to be placed at the fractal resistance 1.57587. This mark is confirmed by the upper Donchian Channel boundary.

Currently, the volume of futures and options traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased significantly up to 180 000 contracts and even higher. You can monitor this data by clicking here. This indicates high liquidity of the currency ahead of a new volatility momentum. The probability of false breakouts in such conditions is low.
After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.56418
Stop loss above 1.57587

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Yen: new energy age

Energy market reorganization governed by the US shale technology has led to increased volatility of currencies in developed countries. Volatility correlation of commodity prices and liquid instruments such as USD/JPY, GBP/USD suggests that non-commodity prices are currently behaving not in a traditional way. Today we demonstrate the impact of a new energy age on the national Japanese currency with the help of GeWorko model. Export-oriented economy of Japan benefited from fallen commodity prices. The tumbled prices for Brent futures from $77 to $73 and a further price decline allowed the Bank of Japan to continue the economic stimulus by conducting quantitative easing without a sharp increase in inflation risks: the refinancing rate has remained at zero level. The currency market was unambiguous about this event: yen dipped 2% in a few days after the OPEC summit. Note also that the Japanese trade surplus from February to November has grown 46%, while Brent futures tumbled 39%. These values are comparable. The 20-day correlation between the yen and Brent over that period was 66-85%. Usually it corresponds to correlation with the loonie as a commodity currency during the times of a stable market, but certainly not with the yen.
To take advantage of these trends, we consider the spread trading instrument &WTI_JPY, composed using Personal Composite Instrument - PCI technology. The basic part of the instrument includes 1 barrel of the US WTI crude oil, and the quoted part - 100 JPY. Get more details and the online &WTI_JPY chart by clicking here. You can also download the instrument for NetTradeX terminal.

Here we consider the daily closing/opening price chart of the given instrument. It was composed in NetTradeX trading platform. We can see that the exponential moving average is moving along the bearish trend line, confirming the trend. The price crossed it downwards and broke the fractal support at 71.741. At the same time there was a ParabolicSAR reversal in the direction of the red zone.

Another significant sign of the downtrend is the bearish gap, which was formed immediately after the OPEC meeting. Thus, it confirms our hypothesis about the Japanese monetary policy and investor’s reaction on it. We deem that a short position can be opened immediately, or (for conservative traders) after the MACD line breakout at 1.5036. Stop Loss can be opened at the crossover of the moving average and the trend line at 75.947. This mark is also confirmed by the Bill Williams resistance fractal.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 70.374
Stop loss above 75.947

More information about the mechanism of portfolio operations is available on our website section “Quick Guide for Creating and Trading PCI”.

 

[ashlygody]

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best forex traders

 

[IFCM]

Oil driver for bulls

Here we consider USD/CAD currency pair on the H4 chart. As oil prices keep falling, the Canadian dollar continues to slump. The price is moving within the limits of D1 and H4 uptrend channel: bullish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. The trend is confirmed by ParabolicSAR values, which cross the line and fractal support level. Donchian Channel is also indicating the bullish bias. There is no contradiction on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator. At the moment, it approached the local resistance level at 76.2609%. We expect that this level would be crossed when the price breaks the resistance level at 1.15294. This mark can be used for opening a pending buy order. Stop Loss is better to be placed at the Bill Williams support fractal 1.15106, which is strengthened by Parabolic historical values.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal low. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 1.15294
Stop loss below 1.15106

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Expecting red zone

Here we consider GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. As oil prices keep falling, we observe the US dollar strengthening against the most liquid currencies. The British pound is not an exception. The price is moving within the limits of D1 and H4 downtrend channel: bearish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. The trend is confirmed by ParabolicSAR values, which cross the trendline and fractal resistance level. Donchian Channel is also indicating the bearish bias. There is no contradiction on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator. At the moment, it approached the local support level at 35.3912%. We expect that this level would be crossed when the price breaks the support level at 1.55972. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order. Stop Loss is better to be placed at the Bill Williams resistance fractal 1.57589, which is strengthened by Parabolic historical values and the bearish pattern “double top” (marked in red ellipse on the chart). We can see that the pound has been drifting sideways for almost a month. It increases the probability of volatility surge and the consolidation completion.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.55972
Stop loss above 1.57589

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Correction completion

Here we consider EUR/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. As oil prices keep falling, we observe the US dollar strengthening against the most liquid currencies. Euro is not an exception. The price is moving within the limits of D1 downtrend channel: four-hour price rebound is expected to be completed. The price approached ParabolicSAR values which cross the trend line and the fractal resistance level. Meanwhile, Donchian Channel is indicating the bullish bias, but we expect the situation to be changed after the support level breakout at 1.24105. It will coincide with RSI-Bars oscillator intersection at 50.3743%. At the moment, it has approached the local support level. The price support level can be used for opening a pending sell order. Stop Loss is better to be placed at the Bill Williams resistance fractal 1.25740, which is strengthened by the D1 trend line and the upper Donchian Channel boundary.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.24105
Stop loss above 1.25740

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

"Oil" growth.

Let’s consider the H4 chart of USD/CAD instrument. As oil prices keep falling, we observe the US dollar strengthening against the most liquid currencies. Canadian dollar, traditionally related to commodity currencies, is not an exception. A price is moving inside an H4 upward tendency. We expect a completion of correction at 1.15544 mark. It is crossed by trend line and a lower boundary of the Donchian Channel. A channel slope has a green zone direction as well. 1.15544 mark can be used for risk mitigation after the long position opening. The fractal resistance level 1.16761 in its turn is comfortable for the pending buy order opening. If it happens then a reverse of ParabolicSAR trend indicator will become probable. At the same time a divergence of RSI-Bars oscillator is going to complete. We recommend conservative traders to wait for a breakdown of the oscillator resistance mark 52.3319%.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal minimum. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position BUY
Buy stop higher 1.16761
Stop loss lower 1.15544

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Tendency continuation

Let’s consider an H4 chart of EUR/USD instrument. As oil prices keep falling and FED reports have positive decline, we observe the US dollar strengthening against the most liquid currencies. European currency is not an exception as well. The price keeps moving in frame of H4, D1 tendencies – the scale synchronization is observed. A signal of trend indicator ParabolicSAR slides along a four-hour trend line, thus confirming the bearish direction. The slope of the Donchian channel is also directed toward the red zone. The only alarm at the moment is a breakdown of the RSI-Bars trend line. The signal can be false only if the 19.3150% support intersection occurs. Most likely, that at this moment the price overcomes a fractal mark of 1.22147, which can be used for pending order opening. At the same time an intersection of Donchian Channel lower boundary is expected. Risks can be limited above the resistance 1.23061, which coincides with the trend line H4 and the historical values of Parabolic.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal maximum. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.22147
Stop loss above 1.23061

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Expecting bullish momentum

Here we consider the USD/CAD on the H4 chart. The price is consolidated in the sideways and is preparing for a new bullish momentum. ParabolicSAR historical values are moving along the H4 trend line. There was also an important technical signal on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator: its values indicated a valid reversal and returned back to the bearish resistance line. We expect the next bar would cross the oscillator resistance line at 61.4968% and it will coincide with the price breakout at 1.16491. Note that this mark is confirmed by the Bill Williams fractal and the upper Donchian Channel boundary. The mark can be used for opening a pending buy order with Stop Loss placed below the support line at 1.15571, which crosses the H4 trend line.

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal low. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Buy
Buy stop above 1.16491
Stop loss below 1.15571

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.

 

[IFCM]

Unemployment Claims

Today we consider GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is moving within the limits of H4, D1 and W1 downtrend channel: bearish trend is observed for all the timeframe scales. ParabolicSAR historical values are moving along the H4 trend line, confirming the investor sentiment. Donchian Channel is also demonstrating the negative bias. There is no contradiction on the part of the RSI-Bars oscillator: it indicated the daily downtrend. The final bearish confirmation will be obtained when the oscillator bar would cross the support level at 21.9462%. It will likely to coincide with the price breakout at 1.54803. This level is confirmed by the Donchian Channel lower boundary. This mark can be used for opening a pending sell order with Stop Loss placed above the resistance at 1.56163. This is a comfortable position for risk mitigation because the resistance level is strengthened by Parabolic historical values and the D1 trend line. We expect a new volatility momentum of this currency pair after the US Unemployment Claims being released at 14:30 (CET).

After position opening, Stop Loss is to be moved after the Parabolic values, near the next fractal high. Updating is enough to be done every day after a new Bill Williams fractal formation (5 candlesticks). Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.

Position Sell
Sell stop below 1.54803
Stop loss above 1.56163

Dear traders. For the detailed report of the strategy based on analytical issues of technical analysis click here.