If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[The Expert]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

Change a few words, and PRESTO:idea:

Ranging bet sizes and the Kelly criterion

Between 70% and 90% of the player edge when counting cards comes from placing larger bets when the count is favorable to the player. (The rest of the edge comes from changes to basic strategy based on the count.) [12] A mathematical principle called the Kelly criterion indicates that bet increases should be proportional to the player advantage. In practice, this means that the higher the count, the more a player should bet on each hand in order to take advantage of the player edge. Taken to its ultimate conclusion, the Kelly criterion would demand that a player not bet anything at all when the deck doesn't offer a positive expectation. "Wonging," as shown above, takes advantage of that.

 

[jon1971]

Still "gathering" I see

VSA = Very Sad Analysis

TE

I thought I just covered that, you should :smart: to read TE cheesy:

 

[The Expert]

I thought I just covered that, you should :smart: to read TE cheesy:

OK, maybe I was wrong, but I am right more times

TE

 

[jon1971]

Change a few words, and PRESTO:idea:

Ranging bet sizes and the Kelly criterion

Between 70% and 90% of the player edge when counting cards comes from placing larger bets when the count is favorable to the player. (The rest of the edge comes from changes to basic strategy based on the count.) [12] A mathematical principle called the Kelly criterion indicates that bet increases should be proportional to the player advantage. In practice, this means that the higher the count, the more a player should bet on each hand in order to take advantage of the player edge. Taken to its ultimate conclusion, the Kelly criterion would demand that a player not bet anything at all when the deck doesn't offer a positive expectation. "Wonging," as shown above, takes advantage of that.

 

[jon1971]

OK, maybe I was wrong, but I am right more times

TE

Hey, that's what I'm talking about.

When you combine that with good money management, then that's the game...

 

[The Expert]

Stop using smileys, they are annoying you know

TE

 

[The Expert]

Hey, that's what I'm talking about.

When you combine that with good money management, then that's the game...

Not EXACTLY correct, for, you need a bit more to win in the real world of trading, you know what I MEAN

TE

 

[jon1971]

Stop using smileys, they are annoying you know

TE

But I learned:smart: it from The Expert

 

[jon1971]

Not EXACTLY correct, for, you need a bit more to win in the real world of trading, you know what I MEAN

TE

Erm, reading big money accumulation, distribution?

 

[The Expert]

But I learned:smart: it from The Expert

Have you NOT learned anything else:|

TE

 

[jon1971]

Have you NOT learned anything else:|

TE

Yeah, see my previous post.

 

[The Expert]

Erm, reading big money accumulation, distribution?

Mmmmm, sort of, but NOT EXACTLY correct

TE

 

[jon1971]

Mmmmm, sort of, but NOT EXACTLY correct

TE

Well let me join the secret 7 then, very late now TE, am signing off, ciao for now...

 

[The Expert]

OK, then, we have now established that we are nothing more than glorified card counters, and if we are going to lose we must not lose too much.

But, what about TIME:idea:

We want to make all that money BEFORE we die:clap:

We need something to give us a TURBO boost so that we can skip all the usual crap that most have to endure and deal with

This is where The Expert excels, and is EXACTLY why The Expert is The Expert

TE

 

[The Expert]

Well let me join the secret 7 then, very late now TE, am signing off, ciao for now...

Nighty Night J19:cheesy:

 

[MacAttack]

It's funny that this is the thread I found to follow. Anytime I think about how I wished I trade I think of blackjack. Learn to count cards, choose the table with the best odds, follow the rules perfectly, bet the right amount at the right time.

This is something that makes sense to me. Numbers & odds & bet sizing. I just never could figure out how to transfer it to trading, and all the books I read said I needed TA and I read a ton of them.

If I could trade with nothing but numbers with no charts it wouldn't bother me a bit.

Well anyway Mr. Expert thanks for all the help so far. I reread every single one of your posts yesterday & today; it's starting to sink in. Definitely changed the way I think. For some reason I spent 40 minutes reading about the Brentano-Müller-Lyer illusion today.

 

[MacAttack]

A couple questions................thanks for responding to my PALM trade questions by the way:

1. I understand why some of my thoughts got the "frown" face, but what about "avg weekly range". Is that just because it was a trade based on the daily chart so you only look at daily range, or did I just use way too long of a time period for the weekly range?

2. This one got a big frown: The price on the daily chart formed a narrow range or slim jim pattern.

The narrow range part is good right? I noticed a pattern (from a book), but you've named a few in some of your posts I think.........butterfly, abc, so that's not a bad thing is it?

 

[MacAttack]

OK, then, we have now established that we are nothing more than glorified card counters, and if we are going to lose we must not lose too much.

But, what about TIME:idea:

We want to make all that money BEFORE we die:clap:

We need something to give us a TURBO boost so that we can skip all the usual crap that most have to endure and deal with

This is where The Expert excels, and is EXACTLY why The Expert is The Expert

TE

As far as things that would help the time part of the equation:

Being as accurate as possible, so you're not wasting time in a losing trade.

Catching your entire target or at least the bulk of it.

Catching that target as many times as possible. If you can make 10 trades per day vs only 5 trades with the same target per trade that would be a good thing.

Bet the correct amount at the correct time.

 

[PIPmaker]

If you think that TA is the way to make money, then, ask yourself one simple question, and that is, WHY do so many fail with all the INFORMATION that is is READILY available
TE

Good one, Ex. Maybe many traders would start making money by putting on a blindfold and simply set stop/profit 1:2 or just do the opposite of what they feel.. Also, looking at a 30Min. chart does not change the direction of monthly or weekly trends.

 

[wackypete2]

-----------------------------
Originally Posted by The Expert
If you think that TA is the way to make money, then, ask yourself one simple question, and that is, WHY do so many fail with all the INFORMATION that is is READILY available
TE
----------------------------

We have all seen the "95% of traders fail" disclaimers. No mention of TA or any other method so I hazzard a guess that NO MATTER WHAT METHODOLOGY IS USED, 95% will fail. It's not the method that fails it's the trader. If you suddenly became enlightened and found the HOLY GRAIL of trading and you perfectly trained 100 students and guaranteed them riches for life then set them free I'd bet 95% (maybe 90%?) would fail. Even many of the original turtles ended up failed traders because they just didn't completely follow the rules once they were set free.

Peter