If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[wackypete2]

I hope you are not trying to tell people that woodie's cci rubbish is something to look into

This is one perfect example of RTA and how people can waste a vast amount of time trying to perfect a combination of mathematical numbers to make some good money

They should have called it the woddie woodpecker club, for they keep pecking away at the ES & NQ with little splinters of wood falling to the ground

What a waste of time = waste of money:whistling

The Expert

All bow. THE EXPERT speaks!

Thread must be slowing down. Who better than THE EXPERT to wind it right back up!

Someone pass the popcorn...

Peter

 

[The Expert]

All bow. THE EXPERT speaks!

Thread must be slowing down. Who better than THE EXPERT to wind it right back up!

Someone pass the popcorn...

Peter

Well P Pan, if that writing under your posts is anything to go by, you have an AWFUL lot to learn about trading:cheesy:

The Expert

 

[Traduk]

HELLO!

We are in the world of reality here, you know

That subconscious crap is exactly that, crap

Now, let me clarify a few things for those who are trying to learn how to make some money in the markets

1. One man's GAIN is another man's LOSS

2. He who sees LITTLE sees MUCH

3. Trade what YOU see, not what OTHERS see:smart:

As for Mark Douglas and the other so called experts, well, lets just say that they are not real experts, like The Expert

I guess I will have to treat your remarks with the contempt they deserve.

Not particularly pleased to see you back but if anybody ought to have some expertise in psychology I guess it ought to you.

There was a brief discussion on trader development and there is a transitional stage from regular loser to winner which engenders feelings of euphoria and boosts the ego to a point where the individual feel like an invincible expert. It lasts until the markets deal a blow that teaches humility.

Are you ever going to say anything of consequence?. It takes no expertise to criticise as that action is destructive not constructive and lots of people can break things but fewer can build. Your total constructive contributions to date add up to about three short statements that are about blindingly obvious facts.

I see that you have criticised Woodie. I think his work is not really worthy of comment but I have to give the guy loads of credit for persevering in the face of loads of dissension. He has produced and coded something that gives him international renown and to his followers he is an expert. I think that perhaps you brought his name up because you are the only one who thinks that you are an expert and some delusion leads you to think that if it is repeated often enough in forum monikers, it will become a fact.
Whether you like, loathe or could care less about Woodie he has put what he knows out there to be judged and to me that is admirable.

Prove your point with something other than a sombrero posing as an elephant inside a snake.

 

[elitejets]

This thread is still going, unbelievable!

For all those who might actually think all TA is nonsense I recommend a book called "Pitbull: Lessons From Wallstreets Champion Trader" By Martin Schwartz who was featured in the Market Wizards.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Pit-Bull-Lessons-Streets-Champion/dp/0887309569
Don't take my word for it, read the reviews on this book ....

The author is an ex-US Marine who then did an MBA at Columbia. He started out on Wall Street as a Securities Analyst and struggled for 8 years, trading fundamentally and not making any money. Then he left to become an independent trader in 1979 and learned TA. After a long hard battle he was finally profitable.
He entered the US Trading Championships run by a Princeton professor, a competition which is run over a full year. He wiped the floor with the competition returning 781% over the year, hence his title "Champion Trader"

This is one of the most inspiring books I have read. Instead of reading the nonsense on this thread I recommend new traders learn from a real expert, and this guy is one of them.

Nicola

 

[N Rothschild]

thing is though nic this was back when TA prolly did work fine, when the markets wernt a mess of algo's and quant easing and the rest of the noise!

 

[elitejets]

thing is though nic this was back when TA prolly did work fine, when the markets wernt a mess of algo's and quant easing and the rest of the noise!

Come off it how can you possibly apply anything except TA to this rally? The amount junk is up is not "noise".
The junk is up ridiculous percentages from February lows, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, banksters, even crap like Overstock and stuff that will never see a bank bailout is going up. *Quality* stocks, anything that pays a decent dividend is going nowhere.

Junk high yield bonds are on rocket fuel - From Bloomberg:
"Debt ranked in the BB category gained 39.1 percent in the past 12 months, underperforming the CCC tier by 66 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data."

The WSJ journal said today that the NY Fed had found that Major US banks masked risked levels in quarterly reporting for the past five quarters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html
The financials and bank stocks hardly batted an eyelid!

You have to use TA or something if you are trading stocks, quality or valuation type fundamentals are not working ... otherwise its a policy of "buy the crappiest" but to pretend its anything else is a joke.

 

[elitejets]

I realise its very fashionable on threads like this to say you don't need a chart to trade etc, etc.
But unless you are a news trader what the heck are you using in this rally? Unless you just wait for the US open, buy and then sell 4 hours later. That looks like it works pretty good for now, but all I can say to that is pets.com

 

[N Rothschild]

Come off it how can you possibly apply anything except TA to this rally? The amount junk is up is not "noise".
The junk is up ridiculous percentages from February lows, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, banksters, even crap like Overstock and stuff that will never see a bank bailout is going up. *Quality* stocks, anything that pays a decent dividend is going nowhere.

Junk high yield bonds are on rocket fuel - From Bloomberg:
"Debt ranked in the BB category gained 39.1 percent in the past 12 months, underperforming the CCC tier by 66 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data."

The WSJ journal said today that the NY Fed had found that Major US banks masked risked levels in quarterly reporting for the past five quarters.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html
The financials and bank stocks hardly batted an eyelid!

You have to use TA or something if you are trading stocks, quality or valuation type fundamentals are not working ... otherwise its a policy of "buy the crappiest" but to pretend its anything else is a joke.

well how can you apply TA to this rally? how many people have tried to call the top on the spoo, how many sell signals from divergence and oscillators and what not have there been? the rally in the sp's has blown a huge whole in the credibility of TA imo. Shorts have been squeezed and squeezed and every single TA theory has not worked in trying to sell it

 

[Waterfield]

Smoke and Mirrors...

 

[N Rothschild]

I realise its very fashionable on threads like this to say you don't need a chart to trade etc, etc.
But unless you are a news trader what the heck are you using in this rally? Unless you just wait for the US open, buy and then sell 4 hours later. That looks like it works pretty good for now, but all I can say to that is pets.com

well im not going to answer that as it would give away how i trade, but like ive said before its all about trying to find out what the insiders/big boys are up to and there is many ways to do this. last month on the NFP thread everyone was callign for a sell off after NFP and a bad number, i told everyone i was taking the other side. the reason? a trader in the pits had made the comment "it feels firm here, i think we could go higher" and it did, from a TA point of view the market looked very topish. its all about order flow and liquidity, not pretty colors on a chart. liquidity in the markets is the real driving force

when i talk about fundamentals, i mean stuff like liquidity and order flow etc, the kind of stuff guys on the floor look at.

 

[N Rothschild]

liquidity is the tide that lifts all boats, and when you have the fed pumping and dumping cheap cheap money, course the market is going to go up and up

 

[elitejets]

well how can you apply TA to this rally? how many people have tried to call the top on the spoo, how many sell signals from divergence and oscillators and what not have there been? the rally in the sp's has blown a huge whole in the credibility of TA imo. Shorts have been squeezed and squeezed and every single TA theory has not worked in trying to sell it

Well I am sure if you are relying on some fancy oscillator to tell you when the market is oversold then you might well have been royally squeezed but simple trend following would not. A 5 year old could probably tell you what the trend for the past year is.

This rally has blown a hole in the credibility of the financial markets, not TA or fundamentals. Its one big bubble kept aloft with taxpayer money and quantitative easing. Watch what happens when the life support gets turned off.

 

[elitejets]

liquidity is the ride that lifts all boats, and when you have the fed pumping and dumping cheap cheap money, course the market is going to go up and up

Ha ... see we agree!

 

[N Rothschild]

i bet half the folk who use TA dont even use tick charts, time based charts are a total waste of time. you need tick charts to see where and how much buying is going on.

lets say you have your 1,3,5min chart or what ever open on your spread bet account. the market makes a new low..you have NO idea what is going to happen.

then you on your DMA, you see the market make new lows, a boat load of contracts come in on the bid stacked down 5 ticks bidding 2-3-4k contracts a piece. ur tick chart is making new bars like there is no tomorrow and consolidating. from this info you can say, yes there seems to be BUYING going on at these lows.

how the hell could you tell that from your time based charts? you cant..you are trading blind. if you cant see order flow you may aswell not bother trading!

 

[N Rothschild]

trend following is great in hindsight, you know this

 

[N Rothschild]

Ha ... see we agree!

yes, there is your fundamental analysis right there lol. no one said FA had to be analyzing p/e ratios and quarterly earnings lol

 

[N Rothschild]

i bet half the folk who use TA dont even use tick charts, time based charts are a total waste of time. you need tick charts to see where and how much buying is going on.

lets say you have your 1,3,5min chart or what ever open on your spread bet account. the market makes a new low..you have NO idea what is going to happen.

then you on your DMA, you see the market make new lows, a boat load of contracts come in on the bid stacked down 5 ticks bidding 2-3-4k contracts a piece. ur tick chart is making new bars like there is no tomorrow and consolidating. from this info you can say, yes there seems to be BUYING going on at these lows.

how the hell could you tell that from your time based charts? you cant..you are trading blind. if you cant see order flow you may aswell not bother trading!

just to add to this, how many people have been stopped out in spread betting by a point or to, only for the market to rally back up? happens ALL the time. if you were watching order flow and could see that a few points below your stop there was some serious interest on the bid/offer..you wouldn't be getting stopped out so much would u

 

[elitejets]

True blue Rothschild but unless you are superhuman or you have a team of 20 traders working for you then you can only watch and trade so many tick charts.
So ... how do you decide which ones you are going to watch/trade that day?

i bet half the folk who use TA dont even use tick charts, time based charts are a total waste of time. you need tick charts to see where and how much buying is going on.

lets say you have your 1,3,5min chart or what ever open on your spread bet account. the market makes a new low..you have NO idea what is going to happen.

then you on your DMA, you see the market make new lows, a boat load of contracts come in on the bid stacked down 5 ticks bidding 2-3-4k contracts a piece. ur tick chart is making new bars like there is no tomorrow and consolidating. from this info you can say, yes there seems to be BUYING going on at these lows.

how the hell could you tell that from your time based charts? you cant..you are trading blind. if you cant see order flow you may aswell not bother trading!

 

[N Rothschild]

True blue Rothschild but unless you are superhuman or you have a team of 20 traders working for you then you can only watch and trade so many tick charts.
So ... how do you decide which ones you are going to watch/trade that day?

well you have a primary market you trade and maybe a secondary..you would be alot more sucsesfull in one market using these methods than you would be in over 5 markets using normal time charts. before i quit day trading i was only day trading crude oil and corn!

 

[DionysusToast]

DT,

Every time you use stocks to prove a point in your argument against TA you reinforce the fact that you cannot or will not grasp that TA does not work on stocks other than those that have a strong correlation with an index. TA needs mass participants fighting over every price point to work properly and as many participants are technically driven it may be self fulfilling prophesy but who cares because if it works and makes consistent money that's fine by me.

Quite obviously, in the past, you have spent an inordinate amount of time using inappropriate tools for the job you wish to accomplish and have concluded that the tools are useless. In the area that is my speciality (e-mini S&P) your approach would last no longer than your bank balance could stand it and has been stated over and over its horses for courses.

I also have had these debates for as long as the internet has been going but formerly with buy and holders. They were over the moon back in the late 90's and would hear nothing of bubbles and I guess are still hanging on after seeing their wealth cut in half twice in a decade. They were similarly dismissive of squiggly lines.

Of course what you say about stocks is totally valid and it is the almost random walk behaviour of them that makes them of no interest to me but to use their behaviour to prove to try to prove a point is ludicrous.

So - if I understand your argument - you can't explain why traditional TA should work, correct ?