If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

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Traduk said:
Addressed to DT, I asked how much gearing do you guys get. I vaguely recall reading 4:1 but asked the question for clarification.

I did not refer to illiquid markets but based on the latest trading account an outright purchase of a $70 stock in sufficient quantity to yield a reasonable profit (in my eyes) requires $700K. Judging by past trading accounts he has shown, he uses tiny numbers of stocks with equally tiny results. What he shows is quite commendable but I suppose my interest lies in the question of unless its meaningful why bother.
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4:1 leverage - minimum account size is $25K - I don't currently go over 1000 shares at the moment. So even with a $25K account, you can buy more than 1000 shares at $70.

I am a bit of an early exiter - but I am getting better at holding on, which is all part of the process of improvement. So far this week, my largest trade was a little over 70 cents. Risk per trade is a few cents - i.e. I usually get in where the buying/selling pressure is such that I am unlikely to suffer more than a few cents pullback. Also - if the buying pressure wanes on a long or selling pressure comes in, I try to exit before this is reflected in the price. It is rare that I let a trade go against me 10 cents. I'd be out before then as the momentum I was expecting is not present.

I guess it comes down to 'reasonable profit'. At 1000 shares, it's $10 for every cent the underlying moves, so if you can average 100 cents a day, that's $1000 a day. This is about what I need to quit my day job, although a golden parachute exists which keeps me there for the time being.

If I can do that $1000 a day, work 3-4 hours a day, spend more time with my kids and not have to worry about some schmuck salesman not making his numbers because he spends too much time in titty bars, I will be a happy man. I have no desire to make a million dollars - just to spend more time at my house by the beach.
 
jon1971 said:
DT you're the one who's opinions seem to change with the wind, I've not contradicted myself once. I've not rubbished TA and then said later oh actually there are a couple of oscillators that I use in my methodology. Where have I said that?

I'm not even trying to defend TA, I have my own set up and I'm happy with it. I'll review it's performance once I have a suitable sample size and make tweaks if necessary.

This is a psychology forum, right?

So I'd be grateful if we could discuss the psychological attitude required to trade a TA set up. If you could refrain from shouting down anyone who dares offer an opinion, that would be terrific.

And I don't really want to see your equity curve, I really couldn't care less, although how exactly does a few cents on a sub thousand lot equate to $1100?
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Psychology is not the issue - it's a fallback for people that attempt to use something that doesn't work to trade - i.e. traditional TA.

They read the TA books, attempt to implement the TA, fail and then move on to the psychology books. I presume this is done because every other person on the interweb claims to be making money from stochastics or the latest 'make a million dollars in 10 minutes a day' trading book. So - when these impressive looking TA books don't yield results people look to psychology as everyone else is making these techniques work.

The thing is - everyone else is NOT making these techniques work, it is just presented to us that way. Such is the industry we find ourselves in. It is a form of mass delusion.

So, perhaps we come back to psychology. No-one wants to say they are losing money, so they all claim to be making it with those mainstream techniques. Everyone believes everyone else and soon they believe themselves.

As for $1,100

CPBY .25 x 1000 = $250
PXD .11 x 1000 = $110
X .11 x 1000 = $110
AMZN 50 x 100 share contracts x .16 = $800

Now add that up, take off the commissions & you have $1100 and change. There's a reason that AMZN was an options trade (the move in the underlying was about $1 I think) but for reasons best left outside the scope of this thread, I used the options.
 
kimo'sabby said:
You've no chance of someone like DT, 'just spitting it out', that would really ruin his show. If he's reading the book and placing small limits in and around the bigger players and hoping for them to get matched, he won't like to tell you this, because that's it then the cryptic game is over. Still only a game of probability, and really only viewing volatility in a different manner.

Where's the expert, he's gone all quiet.
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That is not what I am doing. I have explained what I am doing but as a student of someone on here, I will not go into very specific details as I did agree to a non-disclosure agreement before taking the course and I am a man of my word. You could of course, take the course yourself.

Once again though, I will summarize - look for a chart setup for a longer term move, then put your scalper hat on. Only get into the trade if you have a scalp setup (gives you breathing room on the entry) and then get in. If it looks like the wind is changing direction. Get out.

There's nothing cryptic about it.
 
redart said:
If one was to concede and say, 'OK, TA is useless' does anyone have any advice on how to best to persue the alternatives?
There are a million threads about how to trade using 'X' technical approach, but I haven't found much about how to use 'funnymentals'/'how participants are trading' etc. for short-term trading.
Are there FA books you can recommend to me Dionysustoast?
thankyou
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PM me an email addy & I'll send you some stuff related to stocks if you are interested in trading stocks...

Mostly it'll be in ebook format and I can't post them on here for copyright reasons.
 
There is absolutely nothing wrong with "small" gains if they are small because the stock has reversed direction and the reasons for being in the trade no longer apply. What would be wrong is to let a winning trade turn into a losing one (or staying in a trade which goes against you immediately) for emotional reasons - wishing, hoping and all that nonsense.
If a trade doesn't work then get out.
Why wait to lose all you've gained or stay in a losing trade when your "opinion" has proved to be wrong by price/market action?
Opinions are meaningless - only facts matter.
Ain't rocket science.
Richard
 
DionysusToast said:
That is not what I am doing. I have explained what I am doing but as a student of someone on here, I will not go into very specific details as I did agree to a non-disclosure agreement before taking the course and I am a man of my word. You could of course, take the course yourself.

Once again though, I will summarize - look for a chart setup for a longer term move, then put your scalper hat on. Only get into the trade if you have a scalp setup (gives you breathing room on the entry) and then get in. If it looks like the wind is changing direction. Get out.

There's nothing cryptic about it.
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Whoever taught you has only given you another technical aspect which you could probably read about on the internet, i hope you didn't pay your coach too much. Volume, PBs, DOM, MAs, PA etc etc, are all only as good as the person using them.
 
Ain't rocket science?!? That's what I've been saying all along. This has all flared up coz your mate is accusing me of saying something that I never said and I don't even get the common courtesy of an appology.

He's misinterpreted what I said and is refusing to admit that he's wrong. I hope for his pocket book's sake that these aren't the approaches he takes to reading market data whether it's TA or FA or both at the same time.
 
wackypete2 said:
His job was done on this thread many posts ago. He's kicking back with a good cigar and a scotch, laughing at the rest us here, and getting ready to wind up a new thread.

Peter
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More likely an Irish whiskey and chatting to a bunch of leprechauns :LOL:
 
DionysusToast said:
Psychology is not the issue
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Correct me if I'm wrong but is this thread not located in the Psychology forum?

Contrary to yourself, I happen to think that psychology is key, and I began posting on here in the (vain as it has transpired) hope of getting some serious advice and help on achieving a probabilistic perspective.

Instead, I found a lot of negativity, I've been accused of saying something that I didn't, I've been told to go away and come back when I'm profitable (kinda defeats the object of coming on here in the first place), someone trying to trash my methodology (although he doesn't actually know what is specifically and has failed in his own attempts to use similar). And basically a whole pile of tut, cryptic, non-specific "market-knowledge" babble. All well seasoned with a large portion of posing and posturing. Oh mustn't leave out the smiley face brigade chipping in with the odd sarcastic comment and back slap must I.

Suddenly remembered why I don't bother with T2W so much.
 
jon1971 said:
Ain't rocket science?!? That's what I've been saying all along. This has all flared up coz your mate is accusing me of saying something that I never said and I don't even get the common courtesy of an appology.

He's misinterpreted what I said and is refusing to admit that he's wrong. I hope for his pocket book's sake that these aren't the approaches he takes to reading market data whether it's TA or FA or both at the same time.
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Please note that post of mine was NOT "directed" at you or anybody else and was merely an observation based on my own experiences of trading full time for a living for ten years. Right for me, but that doesn't mean it's right for everybody or for certain trading methods.
"Ain't rocket science" is a phrase I use frequently and was not designed to offend you or anybody else.
 
Mr. Charts said:
Please note that post of mine was NOT "directed" at you or anybody else and was merely an observation based on my own experiences of trading full time for a living for ten years. Right for me, but that doesn't mean it's right for everybody or for certain trading methods.
"Ain't rocket science" is a phrase I use frequently and was not designed to offend you or anybody else.
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None taken.
 
To be honest Richard, (in view of a couple of the points I made in an earlier post, which don't quite seem to add up) I'm now wondering if there's a bit of a bait and scam exercise occurring on this board, nah I'm being paranoid ;)

Jon
 
Not sure what you're talking about. I haven't read the thread in detail as I have a certain opinion about the opening poster, but I tend to have a look at what DT writes when I notice his posts on the "New Posts" page as I do think highly of him (sorry DT ! :) )
The thread title doesn't help as it's designed to provoke flame wars. A better title would have been
"If you want to fail as a trader, rely completely on TA".
Richard
 
Mr. Charts said:
Not sure what you're talking about. I haven't read the thread in detail as I have a certain opinion about the opening poster, but I tend to have a look at what DT writes when I notice his posts on the "New Posts" page as I do think highly of him (sorry DT ! :) )
The thread title doesn't help as it's designed to provoke flame wars. A better title would have been
"If you want to fail as a trader, rely completely on TA".
Richard
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I totally agree with you regarding the thread title Richard, yes it is rather incendiary.

As I said, it's probably all pure paranoia, I was just wondering what the motive would be for trying to trash someone else's system, especially if you didn't know the parameters & settings of it, (none of my settings are out of a text-book incidentally, and I've never explained them on here).

That coupled with the fact that DT was maybe a bit too keen to post his earnings and he made reference to learning a "paid-for" system in 6 hours from someone on T2W. So why would this system work when no one else's would?

Now before anyone goes off the deep-end, I'm not accusing anyone of anything, it just struck me as being a rather curious coincidence.

Jon

PS. I wasn't referring to anyone in particular with my "smiley face" jibe :innocent: and apologies to anyone who may have taken offence to anything I have said.
 
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DionysusToast said:
4:1 leverage - minimum account size is $25K - I don't currently go over 1000 shares at the moment. So even with a $25K account, you can buy more than 1000 shares at $70.
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why don't you use SSFs and get 'better' leverage/gearing ?



DionysusToast said:
I am a bit of an early exiter -
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yes, Pla did mention something about that to Pook.
Are you getting treatment ?
I can see why that would be in the psychology forum :whistling
 
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