If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[MrGecko]

just as I have zero problems accepting that great traders can look at a chart without knowing what it is, even if it's artificial and computer generated, and still make money from that alone.

I'll assume you are not talking about writing options on a timeseries

 

[BSD]

Haha heck no I keep it simple I just meant that if one has grasped what the success relevant factors are in trading one doesn't have to have a clue what the chart is of, in fact it could even be random and you could still come up with a net profitable system trading pullbacks in trends and reversals in ranges:

Trading a random chart profitably

 

[HawkTrader]

I'm too lazy to read through the thread, but can't we all agree that we all trade our beliefs of the market? It doesn't matter if you're using some complex system, a fundamental approach or you're just eyeballing a chart, it's still only a belief and I think the real 'holy grail' is in your head and on your account. Trading psychology and money management.

Mind over market!

But then again, all the above is simply one of my beliefs.

 

[MrGecko]

Trading a random chart profitably

I'm dumbstruck.

Seriously.

 

[BSD]

That's as simple as it really is if one can free oneself from old beliefs and convictions if they don't mesh with available facts, open ones mind and is able to identify what really counts while ignoring the irrelevant rest.

It ain't rocket science that's for sure.

Understanding how to trade net profitably has nothing to do with predicting.

It's about no more than skewing the odds in your favor by identifying a method with an edge that you clearly have when trading pullbacks in trends or reversals in ranges, accepting that you'll be wrong and have losing streaks, not letting that deter you from trading your plan, keeping a tight control on losses while accepting in profits what the market will give you and hey bingo you're set.

And then one can leave it to the naysayers to post idiotic threads like this about stuff they don't get and can't get to work even though there are abundant examples of people who made fortunes through some of the simplest systems you can imagine that TA has to offer.

Or isn't a billion enough that John Henry made lol through simple trend following.

Best part is people posting this negative, entirely uninformed nonsense with absolutely no connection to reality can't even offer any alternatives lol, just like nine predicted, this thread has now run almost 30 pages with absolutely nothing of any alternative substance whatsoever on offer.

Not even close.

Those who can get on with it and do, those who can't pose around posting nothing but smoke and mirrors trying to at least look clever to the entirely gullible desperate for a holy grail.



Or do you or anyone else want to bet we'll ever hear anything concrete from the OP or any of the other naysayers as an alternative to TA for trading, not long term investing where fundamentals may well have their justification for those so inclined.

 

[BSD]

While the naysayers have a good old comfortable whinge about why TA doesn't work for them, and shared misery is always nicer than suffering alone out in the cold, others simply get a move on and make great trades with excellent risk / reward ratios like Pozzy here who pocketed 120 pips and risked no more than a handful all in a days work using good old fashioned TA in a standard issue range bounce play here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/88320-my-journal-prop-house-9.html#post1069336

But then he isn't running around whining about why stuff doesn't work, he just makes it work for himself by keeping it simple and by keeping it in tune with how markets move.

Just started out at that prop firm and already doing so well for the course of that journal.

 

[N Rothschild]

But then he isn't running around whining about why stuff doesn't work, he just makes it work for himself by keeping it simple and by keeping it in tune with how markets move.

think the end bit is more important than the TA

 

[A Dashing Blade]

. . .
But then he isn't running around whining about why stuff doesn't work, he just makes it work for himself by keeping it simple and by keeping it in tune with how markets move.

It's the middle bit imo.

 

[BSD]

think the end bit is more important than the TA

Well ok to me TA is everything exclusively to do with the net results of market partipants actions in form of price moving markets, participants drive price up, down or sideways, markets trend whatever percent of the time, the rest of the time they range, when they trend I'd go buy pullbacks aka retracements, when they range I'd go fade tops and bottoms like what pozzy did up there.

Basically price is always making waves in whatever mode we're in, either the path of least resistance is either continuosly higher or lower then we're trending, or it's stuck and can't breakout then we're ranging, but we're almost always making tradeable waves or cycles or whatever one wants to call em.

Again I'd really want to stress that I am by absolutely no means implying that TA can generate loss free trading, absolutely not, losing is and always will be a cost of doing bsuiness as a trader no matter if you're technical or fundamental, discretionary or mechanical.

 

[BSD]

OK last thing and then I'm out for drinks and dinner:

I'm by no means so narrow minded as to believe that the stuff other discretionary technical traders and I do is the only way to make money at this, I am extremely open minded about the realities driving mechanical models, and even more so models driven by data mining, stuff like what Simons at Renaissance Technologies has done so successfully for decades and thats made him rich.

I'm fine with alternatives.

I just think a purely negative criticism thread like this bashing something in the face of all available evidence to the contrary is pure crap and an unadulterated waste of time, particularly as it's just bashing and not providing any constructive alternatives.

Someone start a positive thread for something like data mining or anything else that poses a tangible, concrete and contructive possibility to make money trading and I'll be the first to cheer that on.

Lol this really is my last post here on this thread tonight now.

;-)

 

[trendie]

re: RTA.

The Turtles made their billions with their Donchian channel 20-day Hi-Lo breakouts.

Just reminded me about Linda Bradford Raschke (cue angelic music in the background), and in her Street Smarts book, they had a system called "Turtle Soup", where they faded the breakouts that Turtles would have taken. Can't remember if it was profitable or not.

I think the point (that rathcoole_exile has made so often) is that you could take any line as entry. Its the management of the trade afterwards that determines your profit.

 

[ezreddy]

OSIP went to $52 on the open because someone expressed their intent to buy at $52. Now - of course this is news. If the price dips below $52 - it's an arbitrage opportunity, so the price won't dip below $52.

Now - in 6 months time, anyone looking at this area of price action will see support/resistance. The context of the price hovering around current levels is that there was someone wanting to buy the company. Once that is no longr the case, someone using RTA and not looking at the context of the jump to $52 may make some invalid assumptions on what will happen if price once again moves to that level.

When I talk about context, I mean the context of past price action - which is rarely considered in RTA.

So if this buyout does not occur, and the price drops again, why do you feel this area would not act as S/R? Perhaps in the current situation the S/R may not be as strong, but surely there are other buyers and sellers out there at this level that would influence the stock at this price in the future. Or am I missing something?

 

[ezreddy]

re: RTA.

I think the point (that rathcoole_exile has made so often) is that you could take any line as entry. Its the management of the trade afterwards that determines your profit.

I agree with you 100%. I also agree that TA alone would not result in positive cash flow. I do think, however, that TA will give an advantage over one who is merely using a random method to trade (not that I know anyone doing so). We all know that stocks will do one of three things; go up, go down or continually move between a set bid and ask (this, of course should not last long). By using TA we are improving our odds of determining where the next move will be and a possible target. Without the management portion (read risk management), the advantage is lost. I know I am not really saying anything that has not been said before, but I do think there is a middle ground here. If one believes that straight TA works, then all that is necessary is the proper coding to automate a system. Although Grey apparently had this system, I do not believe that there are too many out there for the average layman. So in a way, I do not believe TA by itself will lead to riches but it sure helps to determine entries and potential exits.

 

[Charlton]

That's as simple as it really is if one can free oneself from old beliefs and convictions if they don't mesh with available facts, open ones mind and is able to identify what really counts while ignoring the irrelevant rest.

It ain't rocket science that's for sure.

Understanding how to trade net profitably has nothing to do with predicting.

It's about no more than skewing the odds in your favor by identifying a method with an edge that you clearly have when trading pullbacks in trends or reversals in ranges, accepting that you'll be wrong and have losing streaks, not letting that deter you from trading your plan, keeping a tight control on losses while accepting in profits what the market will give you and hey bingo you're set.

And then one can leave it to the naysayers to post idiotic threads like this about stuff they don't get and can't get to work even though there are abundant examples of people who made fortunes through some of the simplest systems you can imagine that TA has to offer.

Or isn't a billion enough that John Henry made lol through simple trend following.

Best part is people posting this negative, entirely uninformed nonsense with absolutely no connection to reality can't even offer any alternatives lol, just like nine predicted, this thread has now run almost 30 pages with absolutely nothing of any alternative substance whatsoever on offer.

Not even close.

Those who can get on with it and do, those who can't pose around posting nothing but smoke and mirrors trying to at least look clever to the entirely gullible desperate for a holy grail.



Or do you or anyone else want to bet we'll ever hear anything concrete from the OP or any of the other naysayers as an alternative to TA for trading, not long term investing where fundamentals may well have their justification for those so inclined.

I have had a few merlots tonight and this is one of the most common sense posts I have read.

Tonight I may be a little drunk, but in the words of Lady Astor:

"Winston, you are drunk." To which Churchill responded, "and you, madam, are ugly. In the morning, I shall be sober,"

BSD - this post will still make perfect sense and be as truthful in the morning :cheesy:

Charlton

 

[Mr. Charts]

"Winston, you are drunk." To which Churchill responded, "and you, madam, are ugly. In the morning, I shall be sober,"


I think that was Bessie Braddock, not Astor.

 

[Mr. Charts]

"Lady" Astor said something like she would give Churchill poison if he were her husband, and he replied something along the lines he would take poison if he was married to her.
Richard

 

[Charlton]

"Winston, you are drunk." To which Churchill responded, "and you, madam, are ugly. In the morning, I shall be sober,"


I think that was Bessie Braddock, not Astor.

In fact it appears you are correct. I always thought it was Lady Astor and, indeed, some sources claim that, but I have done another search on Google that confirms what you have said.

You have clearly confirmed the fact that I am drunk. but I hope that I am not too ugly !!!

Anyway it still does not diminish my praise for the post by BSD

Charlton

 

[Mr. Charts]

That's as simple as it really is if one can free oneself from old beliefs and convictions if they don't mesh with available facts, open ones mind and is able to identify what really counts while ignoring the irrelevant rest.

It ain't rocket science that's for sure.

Understanding how to trade net profitably has nothing to do with predicting.

It's about no more than skewing the odds in your favor by identifying a method with an edge that you clearly have when trading pullbacks in trends or reversals in ranges, accepting that you'll be wrong and have losing streaks, not letting that deter you from trading your plan, keeping a tight control on losses while accepting in profits what the market will give you and hey bingo you're set.

And then one can leave it to the naysayers to post idiotic threads like this about stuff they don't get and can't get to work even though there are abundant examples of people who made fortunes through some of the simplest systems you can imagine that TA has to offer.

Or isn't a billion enough that John Henry made lol through simple trend following.

Best part is people posting this negative, entirely uninformed nonsense with absolutely no connection to reality can't even offer any alternatives lol, just like nine predicted, this thread has now run almost 30 pages with absolutely nothing of any alternative substance whatsoever on offer.

Not even close.

Those who can get on with it and do, those who can't pose around posting nothing but smoke and mirrors trying to at least look clever to the entirely gullible desperate for a holy grail.



Or do you or anyone else want to bet we'll ever hear anything concrete from the OP or any of the other naysayers as an alternative to TA for trading, not long term investing where fundamentals may well have their justification for those so inclined.

I agree, Charlton, BSD's excellent post sums it up pretty well.
Richard

 

[Trader333]

I'm dumbstruck.

Seriously.

Yes this basically says that markets are entirely random but that it doesn't matter or maybe he is really Derren Brown


Paul

 

[Prawnsandwich]

It's very easy to dismiss all TA as crap, and some of it is.
There are people all over this forum who will spout stuff like "yeah my system gave me a sell signal at 7:20" etc and are armed to the teeth with indicators.
BUT
There are an awful lot of people looking purely at price action on a chart. Trader_Dante, that new prop trader journal, Beachtrader, Rathcoole_Exile (to name just a small few) who are trading pure price action and who look at charts simply as a way to see what the market is doing and let it show its hand.
It's very easy to throw anyone who looks at a chart all in together but if you do that then you are going to get the negative response that The Expert is experiencing.

I don't trade stocks so half of this is going right over my head. I do trade commodity futures and they have some pretty good gaps there. I'm not sure anything I am reading here is of any use at all.

The only thing I am sure of is that anyone who shows up saying my method is better than anyone else's or who dismisses any other method of trading is usually trying to sell you something or has an ego problem. I'm not interested in either.

The motive behind a lot of the posting here probably really is as simple as that.......poster's massive ego cant or refuses to reconcile their own failure to effectively use TA therefore the problem must be with all TA......it still amazes me to see the continued denial of what is clearly reality....