If I knew then what (I think) I know now...

[adriandecleir1]

Well after buying a faster PC and spending many hours learning how to code my ideas into EAs in MQL4 and backtesting them all with different optimisation variables then adding in more out of series data I have come to the conclusion that no approach is consistently profitable and worth trading. I have looked at trading pullbacks in upward trends, bounces off Bollinger bands, breaks from bollinger bands, stochastic crosses, and many many more trading setup ideas - all with different types of profit taking and in different time periods. So what I would do now if I could turn back the clock would be to buy property rather than waste thousands of hours and thousands of pounds trying to find some Nirvana trading approach. I think that the markets are so heavily traded and in so many different ways that if an edge seems to be present for a while it won't be for when you try to trade it. Also the human mind is very adept in seeing patterns in noise. So my conclusion is simply to look elsewhere to make your money eg property purchase and hold or ideally capitalising on a talent you have - this is also more rewarding that getting money from the markets.

As someone just getting into it thats quite depressing!!! Especially the bit about pullbacks, cause thats part of a system im trying to test now.

For months and months I studied charts ....looking for Dojis, Hammers, Shooting Stars, engulfing patterns, black crows ......... you name it, I'd read it.
On a chart, I could pinpoint a tripled-eyed red panther sitting on a teacup ....

Then there were trendlines, MAs, s/r, Fibs ...

In my opinion , it's all utterly meaningless without looking at volume.

At the moment Im doing exactly this, literally going through the charts just looking for hammers(for example) and writing out in an excel sheet how they are behaving under what conditions. I believe as I keep doing this I am getting to know the charts better. Long way to go though. Could you please send me in a direction of a thread or article or something that could help me study volume. Its something I barely consider at the moment. Thanks

Overall this thread has been a nice wake up call for a beginner like myself. Although I had been working extremely hard on poker prior to this so I believe I already have a bit of a headstart regarding money management and psychology, not to mention I had dumped all naivety about far fetched hopes before I even began learning. The only difference is, it seems that becoming a trader is a realistic dream if you work hard at it. Whereas earning even a modest living in poker still requires you to be one of the best. And its only getting harder as even the worst players are learning the basics.

Anyway, great thread! Cheers

 

[p.jinks]

I think we all get into trading because we want to escape from something eg a boring job or a boring life! We also quickly dismiss the unconfortable fact that 90% of people lose money in this game thinking that of course we will be in the 10% that win because we are smarter than others or we have noticed a particular trading setup that others have missed - yeh right!. So trading gives us hope for a better life that we will achieve without too much effort. It is painful to give up on the hope that trading gives a person but it really is for most people a false hope. People don't want to hear this but it really is better to put your money into safer investments - property ISAs etc that are longer term and at the same time try to make your life happier and not rely on trading to get you out of the life situation that you imagine successful trading will achieve. Having said this I know that nobody who is new to the game will listen because just like me 12 years ago they will not want to hear this advice and instead prefer to see themselves getting rich trading.

 

[volatiliti]

If I knew then what i think i know now........
Well i guess the main one is being sucked in to believing that technical analysis is a way to predict the future .

 

[bbmac]

If I knew then what i think i know now........
Well i guess the main one is being sucked in to believing that technical analysis is a way to predict the future .

Whereas it is, was, and remains a way of developing a trading edge from it, to determine what the geater probability is, when the edge presents itself. It did not, does not, and far as I know will not ever have predictive qualities.

G/L

 

[Black Swan]

There are 2 other issues with TA/indicators that many miss. If price action is simply a deviation/acceleration of price away from the mean then there are certain indicators that can similarly display 'price action' in a graphic way.

Secondly what TA/indicators can do is promote discipline/money management; I've always maintained that the best (and only) intrinsic value of the out of the box fx methods sold over the web is that they promote/encourage self discipline and money management.

 

[volatiliti]

Whereas it is, was, and remains a way of developing a trading edge from it, to determine what the geater probability is, when the edge presents itself. It did not, does not, and far as I know will not ever have predictive qualities.

G/L

Many believe that TA is providing them an edge when in fact it is price action ,money management ,trade management and overbought/sold scenarios where probabilities come into play .

 

[bbmac]

Many believe that TA is providing them an edge when in fact it is price action ,money management ,trade management and overbought/sold scenarios where probabilities come into play .

You just described 2 aspests of TA in your statement Lol...PA (being the technical analysis of pricce,)-and- O/b, O/s measures ( mis nomas in themselves).) I agree though that you have to optimise your money and risk management as well as your trade managment, to your trading edge.

G/L

 

[volatiliti]

You just described 2 aspests of TA in your statement Lol...PA (being the technical analysis of pricce,)-and- O/b, O/s measures ( mis nomas in themselves).) I agree though that you have to optimise your money and risk management as well as your trade managment, to your trading edge.

G/L

Price action and Os/Ob are not TA .

TA is bollinger bands and all that crap .
Your thinking of mathematical and scientific analysis .

 

[Hotch]

trolololololol

 

[arabianights]

Many believe that TA is providing them an edge when in fact it is price action ,money management ,trade management and overbought/sold scenarios where probabilities come into play .

Yes, but you'll never convince them of it. Don't worry about it

 

[Black Swan]

bbmac don't do it, just smile, try not to shout too loudly and then quietly ask if they'd like a nice cup of tea...

 

[redart]

You just described 2 aspests of TA in your statement Lol...PA (being the technical analysis of pricce,)-and- O/b, O/s measures ( mis nomas in themselves).)
G/L

Beat me too it.
Everyone seems to have their own definitions of what TA actually is. This often results in the wheels falling off before the conversations ever get going.

 

[arabianights]

Beat me too it.
Everyone seems to have their own definitions of what TA actually is. This often results in the wheels falling off before the conversations ever get going.

Well... you know what they call alternative medicine that actually works? They call it medicine.

Similarly, technical analysis that actually works? They don't call it TA

If someone's proud to call their trading method TA, or their cure for AIDS alternative, be suspicious!

 

[Hotch]

Well... you know what they call alternative medicine that actually works? They call it medicine.

Relevant:

 

[Pazienza]

There are 2 other issues with TA/indicators that many miss. If price action is simply a deviation/acceleration of price away from the mean then there are certain indicators that can similarly display 'price action' in a graphic way.

I really mean this:

kin ell bud! It might as well be rocket science where you're starting from! No wonder you don't make any money from trading ( etc).

 

[Black Swan]

Many believe that TA is providing them an edge when in fact it is price action ,money management ,trade management and overbought/sold scenarios where probabilities come into play .

So PA is not TA then huh? Tell me how would you describe the 'levels' I trade FX off; you know S, R and the daily pivot...not TA? You also think MM brings probabilities into play? Wow..

You also mention overbought/oversold, so you're not using stochastic for that obviously (utterly pointless indicator anyhow) but putting that aside what do you use to determine oversold/overbought "scenarios" as you refer to them?

Oh, and whilst I'm asking you a Q. are you new to the forum or one of the 'Broadmoor massive' previously banned multi id schizophrenic trolls currently stomping their madness all over the forum?

 

[Pazienza]

So PA is not TA then huh? Tell me how would you describe the 'levels' I trade FX off; you know S, R and the daily pivot...not TA? You also think MM brings probabilities into play? Wow..

You also mention overbought/oversold, so you're not using stochastic for that obviously (utterly pointless indicator anyhow) but putting that aside what do you use to determine oversold/overbought "senarios" as you refer to them?

Oh, and whilst I'm asking you a Q. are you new to the forum or one of the 'Broadmoor massive' previously banned multi id schizophrenic trolls currently stomping their madness all over the forum?

LOL spreading madness, another good one to remember fwiw iirc bless...

I thought you had a magic combo of indicators that was secret and couldn't be revealed bud , why are you not keen on stochs (that's what the pros call them, not stochastics - that's amateur hour mate bud tbh)?

 

[gedward3]

Oh, and whilst I'm asking you a Q. are you new to the forum or one of the 'Broadmoor massive' previously banned multi id schizophrenic trolls currently stomping their madness all over the forum?

BS,

Why if someone has a different view from you are they automatically a multinic
or escaped mad man. They just have a different view on whats happening which
makes the market tick.

Ged

 

[Black Swan]

BS,

Why if someone has a different view from you are they automatically a multinic
or escaped mad man. They just have a different view on whats happening which
makes the market tick.

Ged

Eh? Nonsense, he is what he is, it is what it is. I've even taken Pazzy off ignore..

 

[Pazienza]

Eh? Nonsense, he is what he is, it is what it is. I've even taken Pazzy off ignore..

Don't do that, it will only encourage me.