I think I found the holy grail

[Purple Brain]

Hmm, I am not sure about that as you would need to have some knowledge of the basis upon which it has been achieved. For example, if it has been done by someone using high frequency trading algorithms who is able to write code then that may be of no use to you at all if you don't have access to the same skill sets.

Absolutely. I've made yet another set of assumptions that anyone on this site who is, or knows someone who is, making 2% per day consistently is likely to be trading 'like the rest of us'. Clearly that isn't the case.

I'll lower my expectations then and just aim for losing less each day than I currently do.

 

[new_trader]

Agree, in the example I gave, PTJ doesn't make 200% every year.
Most peoples returns are more lumpy on an annual basis, let alone a weekly
or even daily basis than a single ROI % would suggest, particularly when sample size
is a factor as you say.

Yes, last paragraph on Page1:

"That is not to say that Mr. Prechter has any undue sway over Mr. Jones, who since he started Tudor Investment in 1986 has generated a return of 26 percent a year and has seen his assets grow from $125 million to $19 billion."

Those are numbers I can believe.

 

[Pat494]

Yes, last paragraph on Page1:

"That is not to say that Mr. Prechter has any undue sway over Mr. Jones, who since he started Tudor Investment in 1986 has generated a return of 26 percent a year and has seen his assets grow from $125 million to $19 billion."

Those are numbers I can believe.

Is that from trading alone or as I suspect inviting funds from elsewhere to join his fund too ?

 

[Liquid validity]

Is that from trading alone or as I suspect inviting funds from elsewhere to join his fund too ?

Its the annualised ROI across the Tudor BVI Fund:
http://www.risk.net/global/hedgefundsreview/fund_profiles/T/04_Jul_-_Tudor_Inv_Corp.pdf

Yes Tudor BVI Fund does include OPM, its a misconception that all funds are OPM.
Some such as Steve Cohen's SAC Sigma fund are mostly own account:
http://www.businessweek.com/stories...ul-trader-on-wall-street-youve-never-heard-of

Off the top of my head, I think Rentecs medallion fund is mostly
employee only as well.

 

[Liquid validity]

Yes, last paragraph on Page1:

"That is not to say that Mr. Prechter has any undue sway over Mr. Jones, who since he started Tudor Investment in 1986 has generated a return of 26 percent a year and has seen his assets grow from $125 million to $19 billion."

Those are numbers I can believe.

Same here, although in his earlier years PTJ did do well as
his BVI fund was smaller and more agile:
'85 = 136%
'86 = 99%
'87 = 200%
http://www.risk.net/global/hedgefundsreview/fund_profiles/T/04_Jul_-_Tudor_Inv_Corp.pdf

All that really shows is how misleading ROI % can be due to
roll off with increasing size.

 

[Code.Monkey]

I got a strategy that is more profitable than 95% of the users of this board.

Cos i'm generous i'll give it to you guys for free. You buy this security called the 10 year treasury bond and then hold it to maturity. The probability of profit is very high, you should get a 2% ROI each year and the risk of ruin is almost zero. How many of you guys make more than that each year?

2% per year?

My conservative ROI target is 10% per month.

Think about this for a moment. If you invest $1000.00, and you only make trades with a high probability of positive results, how hard is it going for you to make $100.00?

 

[timsk]

Think about this for a moment. If you invest $1000.00, and you only make trades with a high probability of positive results, how hard is it going for you to make $100.00?

A doddle I would think Code.Monkey. Assuming that:
A. trader has a methodology in the first place that enables them to only take 'trades with a high probability of positive results' and . . .
B. that they have a risk and money management strategy that ensures they don't lose more on the losers than they make on the winners!
That's the hard part!

Tim.

 

[new_trader]

2% per year?

My conservative ROI target is 10% per month.

Think about this for a moment. If you invest $1000.00, and you only make trades with a high probability of positive results, how hard is it going for you to make $100.00?

Can you live on $100/month?

Let me guess, you'll just 'scale it up' when you want a new Ferrari.

 

[Code.Monkey]

Can you live on $100/month?

Let me guess, you'll just 'scale it up' when you want a new Ferrari.

The 10% of a $1000.00 was an example. I don't live on $100.00 a month.
A 10% return is a very feasible amount of return. And I was giving the $100.00 as an example to put the amount into perspective.

My point was that the original poster was suggesting that the holy grail was to invest in a manner which would provide a 2% ROI on a Treasury.

My trading strategy in general is based upon MTF analysis and time based harmonics. Are there risks with it? of course there are... But through proper analysis of the market, and simply waiting for the appropriate time to enter and exit without being greedy about it takes discipline.

As for the Ferrari? No thanks. Maybe back when I was a kid I would have wanted one, but I'm not one to throw my money away on gas any longer. I do however drive a very nice all electric Tesla. It's a very reliable car, and when the model x becomes available for delivery in a couple of months, my wife will be driving a Tesla as well. But that's not really relevant to this discussion.

I mean no disrespect, nor was I intending to start an argument. It's just that when people start saying things like "holy grail" and "investing" in the same sentence, it is generally touted by someone who has very little real understanding about the markets in general, and often associated with people who like "get rich quick" schemes of investing by getting others to invest in their ideas without having much risk to their own pockets.

I'm not saying that was the posters intent. But clearly a 2% ROI on a "Treasury Bond" is not the "holy grail", and there are better ways (in my opinion) to invest with a reasonable amount of risk which will produce a much greater return on investment.

So let's stay on topic shall we? :cheers:

- David