I think I found the holy grail

[aparoid89]

I got a strategy that is more profitable than 95% of the users of this board.

Cos i'm generous i'll give it to you guys for free. You buy this security called the 10 year treasury bond and then hold it to maturity. The probability of profit is very high, you should get a 2% ROI each year and the risk of ruin is almost zero. How many of you guys make more than that each year?

 

[Purple Brain]

The 10yr is known as the note, not the bond. And it's currently yielding just under 3%.

You're right in that it is virtually risk free, but not entirely. The US has defaulted on its debt in 1779, 1862, 1934 and technically 1979. This doesn't include the deferred default of 2011 when default was swept under the Fed debt carpet.

 

[Giovan]

I got a strategy that is more profitable than 95% of the users of this board.

Cos i'm generous i'll give it to you guys for free. You buy this security called the 10 year treasury bond and then hold it to maturity. The probability of profit is very high, you should get a 2% ROI each year and the risk of ruin is almost zero. How many of you guys make more than that each year?

You skipped out the part where you need about a few million quid for this to be viable. Considering inflation and several other factors, the search is really far from over.
Gio

 

[timsk]

How many of you guys make more than that each year?

Hi aparoid89
In answer to your question: most of us! Certainly, anyone who has a Nationwide FlexDirect account, a Santander 123 account - or something similar - ought to be able to improve on 2% p/a.

Tim.

 

[Pat494]

I got a strategy that is more profitable than 95% of the users of this board.

Cos i'm generous i'll give it to you guys for free. You buy this security called the 10 year treasury bond and then hold it to maturity. The probability of profit is very high, you should get a 2% ROI each year and the risk of ruin is almost zero. How many of you guys make more than that each year?

Most successful traders aim for 2%+ per working day.

 

[Mr. Charts]

I got a strategy that is more profitable than 95% of the users of this board.

Cos i'm generous i'll give it to you guys for free. You buy this security called the 10 year treasury bond and then hold it to maturity. The probability of profit is very high, you should get a 2% ROI each year and the risk of ruin is almost zero. How many of you guys make more than that each year?

If that's the Holy Grail it can stay hidden for ever.

 

[new_trader]

Hi aparoid89
In answer to your question: most of us! Certainly, anyone who has a Nationwide FlexDirect account, a Santander 123 account - or something similar - ought to be able to improve on 2% p/a.

Tim.

They aren't the same at all.

Nationwide FlexDirect: Rates & monthly fees: You'll get these rates as long as you pay in at least £1,000 per month


Santander 123:Fund the account with £500 a month (a minimum balance of £1,000 is required to receive interest).


This isn't the same as buying a treasury and holding it until maturity.

I doubt that any trader in the world, let alone Trade2win makes a consistent 2% per day. That is a phenomenal amount of money, 11400.00% p.a! (Compounded) otherwise around 500% p.a ...still, who here does that?

 

[Purple Brain]

I doubt that any trader in the world, let alone Trade2win makes a consistent 2% per day. That is a phenomenal amount of money, 11400.00% p.a! (Compounded) otherwise around 500% p.a ...still, who here does that?

That gives me some comfort as I see that 2% figure bandied about a lot, but it seems quite an impossible goal.

Perhaps the 2% is based on what seems to be a common percentage for risk per trade?

 

[Mr. Charts]

"I doubt that any trader in the world, let alone Trade2win makes a consistent 2% per day. That is a phenomenal amount of money, 11400.00% p.a! (Compounded) otherwise around 500% p.a ...still, who here does that?"

You'd be surprised

 

[Purple Brain]

"I doubt that any trader in the world, let alone Trade2win makes a consistent 2% per day. That is a phenomenal amount of money, 11400.00% p.a! (Compounded) otherwise around 500% p.a ...still, who here does that?"

You'd be surprised

Is that figure genuinely achievable then Mr. Charts? If anyone is really making that sort of return on a regular, consistent basis then that information is enough in itself to convince me to soldier on.

Knowing that something has been done and is possible is a wonderful motivator to attempt achieving it for oneself. Whether one does achieve the goal or not is immaterial - is it the mindset of knowing that it is possible to achieve it, that someone else has done it, that counts.

Roger Bannister broke the 4 minute mile after many attempts to do so by himself and many others for a number of years prior to him doing so in 1954. But once it was broken, it fell to many and now represents the standard for middle-distance runners. While performance increases in athletics can be attributed to better training, nutrition and sports physiology, it does not explain the rate at which runners were hitting the sub-4 minute wall within just a couple of months of Bannisters achievement.

There is no greater motivator than knowing it can be done.

 

[new_trader]

"I doubt that any trader in the world, let alone Trade2win makes a consistent 2% per day. That is a phenomenal amount of money, 11400.00% p.a! (Compounded) otherwise around 500% p.a ...still, who here does that?"

You'd be surprised

I read an article about Warren Buffett when he was the world’s richest man and considered the world’s greatest investor. They calculated at the time that he grew his wealth at a compounded rate of 36% p.a (Thirty-six %!). Now, perhaps the traders at Trade2win who would surprise me prefer to remain anonymous, but there must be some others who manage 500% p.a. that have made it to the Forbes richest list or the Bloomberg Billionaires index. Perhaps you can name them?

If you are referring to people that deposit £100 in a spread-betting account, then yes, I can believe 500% is possible, I’ve managed close to that but it wasn’t by making 2% everyday. However, I won’t argue the point, if some claim they do it, fine. My goals/targets are extraordinarily modest by comparison and I am more than satisfied with that.

 

[numbertea]

There is no greater motivator than knowing it can be done.

I took off work from my day job for 2 weeks to see what I could do with daytrading from home during that time on the ES. I decided that I have to continue my day job until I have made enough from trading to replace 1 years funds. It was a good 2 weeks. I'm on my way. Don't give up, it's possible.

Cheers

 

[Liquid validity]

Is that figure genuinely achievable then Mr. Charts? If anyone is really making that sort of return on a regular, consistent basis then that information is enough in itself to convince me to soldier on.

Knowing that something has been done and is possible is a wonderful motivator to attempt achieving it for oneself. Whether one does achieve the goal or not is immaterial - is it the mindset of knowing that it is possible to achieve it, that someone else has done it, that counts.

Roger Bannister broke the 4 minute mile after many attempts to do so by himself and many others for a number of years prior to him doing so in 1954. But once it was broken, it fell to many and now represents the standard for middle-distance runners. While performance increases in athletics can be attributed to better training, nutrition and sports physiology, it does not explain the rate at which runners were hitting the sub-4 minute wall within just a couple of months of Bannisters achievement.

There is no greater motivator than knowing it can be done.

Paul Tudor Jones - 9th paragraph - annual return of 200%:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3

Paul Tudor Jones - 6th paragraph - 5% loss in one day:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/13/business/13speculate.html?pagewanted=2&_r=3

Anything is possible, including total loss.
A sub 4 min mile is possible - can you run that time?
I cant.
All that matters is what you are capable of with sane risk

 

[Trader333]

2% is possible but not on a continually compounding basis and different T2W members have witnessed first hand this being done but not with forex and I have only seen it done with US stocks. The general argument is that if it is possible then you would become a billionaire very quickly does not apply to trading stocks because you would soon run into the issue of taking on greater position size than the market can accommodate. However, if you stick to a fixed starting capital of say $50K then not only is 2% possible but taking a monthly average, I have seen it even higher.

 

[new_trader]

Making a lot of money is one thing, keeping the denominator small to make the percentages look better is another.

Besides, there is a saying, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

 

[Purple Brain]

Anything is possible, including total loss.
A sub 4 min mile is possible - can you run that time?
I cant.
All that matters is what you are capable of with sane risk

Not quite. 40 minutes possibly.

But my point is that knowing it had already been done would make it easier, for me at any rate, to attempt to do the same myself - regardless of my success in doing so. Even if I didn't break the 4-minute barrier, but improved my time by some small margin, I'd be pleased. A margin I possibly wouldn't have achieved had I not thought the more distant goal a possibility.

I wasn't suggesting that just because it could be done I'd immediately leave the house and attempt it there and then without a proper training regime and diligent practice. But in the trading context, knowing it can be done is a motivator. Not that I'm going to risk all my capital on one trade just to attempt to achieve it today, but knowing that there are methods to doing so is sufficient to get one through the dark days and drawdowns in search of a simple profit at the end of the day - let alone a magnificent 2%.

 

[Liquid validity]

Not quite. 40 minutes possibly.

But my point is that knowing it had already been done would make it easier, for me at any rate, to attempt to do the same myself - regardless of my success in doing so. Even if I didn't break the 4-minute barrier, but improved my time by some small margin, I'd be pleased. A margin I possibly wouldn't have achieved had I not thought the more distant goal a possibility.

I wasn't suggesting that just because it could be done I'd immediately leave the house and attempt it there and then without a proper training regime and diligent practice. But in the trading context, knowing it can be done is a motivator. Not that I'm going to risk all my capital on one trade just to attempt to achieve it today, but knowing that there are methods to doing so is sufficient to get one through the dark days and drawdowns in search of a simple profit at the end of the day - let alone a magnificent 2%.

Its OK I know what you meant
Yes it can be a good motivational tool
when you don't know whats possible.

The main point I was emphasising, which you clearly grasp is
that your own performance is all that truly matters.

 

[Trader333]

But my point is that knowing it had already been done would make it easier, for me at any rate

Hmm, I am not sure about that as you would need to have some knowledge of the basis upon which it has been achieved. For example, if it has been done by someone using high frequency trading algorithms who is able to write code then that may be of no use to you at all if you don't have access to the same skill sets.

 

[Liquid validity]

Hmm, I am not sure about that as you would need to have some knowledge of the basis upon which it has been achieved. For example, if it has been done by someone using high frequency trading algorithms who is able to write code then that may be of no use to you at all if you don't have access to the same skill sets.

Exactly, its all relative and entirely personal.
Apart from a broad motivational factor (double edged sword if taken literally)
when starting out, its largely meaningless.

 

[Liquid validity]

Making a lot of money is one thing, keeping the denominator small to make the percentages look better is another.

Besides, there is a saying, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

Agree, in the example I gave, PTJ doesn't make 200% every year.
Most peoples returns are more lumpy on an annual basis, let alone a weekly
or even daily basis than a single ROI % would suggest, particularly when sample size
is a factor as you say.