I still believe in the GBP long-term

[Pippy5000]

it's quite a sight .. mammals they are !

uh oh my trade has just been triggered!!!!!!!!!!

the failure to break 1.445 caused a predictable short squeeze to 1.455 in about 15 minutes.. what a move!!

up $100 now looking at possible 1.49 to t/p before downward trend resumption..

weeeeeeeeeeee :clap: :clap: :clap:

 

[Pippy5000]

I took profit at 70 pips when I saw what was happening to EUR/USD.. Cable eventually did follow and is trading upper 1.43s .. I have to quit for the day and am hoping for a drop to at least 1.42 while I sleep to trigger 6 lots long.. The USD short-lived range breakout really has the potential to move USD pairs down, down, down as the other direction is tested after the failure... Might wake up to -$3600 but that's just fine as long as it doesn't rebound before I have a chance to get back in .. I'm willing to lose $10,000 before I give up on the GBP rebound.

Who wouldn't be willing to spend 10 to get 60??

 

[marketwizard123]

I think you are getting ahead of yourself

For my money we are heading towards the levels of the last recession, the 1.4000 area (around the lows during early 2001 looks good) is my target for buying gbp/usd, i think the same will happen here as happened to the euro but there is still negative news to come and that should push the pound even lower we will be testing very old lows... Wait until after the interest rate announcement in another week, this is the sort of time when we may see an oversold market ready for a big bounce. 1.40000 BUY - FIRST TARGET ON THE BOUNCE 1.65000

 

[RidderTrade]

I took profit at 70 pips when I saw what was happening to EUR/USD.. Cable eventually did follow and is trading upper 1.43s .. I have to quit for the day and am hoping for a drop to at least 1.42 while I sleep to trigger 6 lots long.. The USD short-lived range breakout really has the potential to move USD pairs down, down, down as the other direction is tested after the failure... Might wake up to -$3600 but that's just fine as long as it doesn't rebound before I have a chance to get back in .. I'm willing to lose $10,000 before I give up on the GBP rebound.

Who wouldn't be willing to spend 10 to get 60??

congratulations.. :smart:

 

[Pippy5000]

So far manually buying dips at or around 1.44 has produced more than 500 pips profit in two days.. Quite a beautiful move for the GBP today 1.435 to 1.47

Really I chalk the price action up to end of year shenanigans on Cable today..

My rubber band strategy is still ready to roll whenever the price wants to trigger the big lots in lower 1.40s..

 

[bongofury]

ok chaps....$1.40 broken convincingly today. against the yen we are at record lows and against the euro the pound is also getting battered. is a rout about to take place ??

 

[FXSCALPER2]

ok chaps....$1.40 broken convincingly today. against the yen we are at record lows and against the euro the pound is also getting battered. is a rout about to take place ??

yeah, 75 cents I would say. I was looking for parity about 6 months ago but I reckon it will go below one. Hehe.

 

[Pippy5000]

I made a heap of cash going long the last time we were down here although I am afraid to do so again.. I'm going to sell a rally/correction.. We're oversold and a correction is inevitable.

I wouldn't worry about the Euro causing problems for you.. It is entirely screwed for a variety of reasons and the lack of action by the ECB has doomed the Eurozone.. Every single day the news becomes more and more horrific from EZ members. GBP will do better than the Euro through the rest of the recession/depression. We will surely favor Britain over France and Germany and use the USD to help pull Britain up while the EZ dies. GB is well aware of this and this is the reason for his "meet them on the landing fields, fight them on the beaches" speech a few weeks ago.. As a result of increased trade with America it will be very difficult to reach parity because we'll be sending you dollars.. Also, expect EUR/GBP to tank when the reality of the EZ situation sets in.

short-term look for a correction
medium-term look for further weakness (but with advantages)
long-term the GBP will survive..

 

[Pippy5000]

Ah here comes the correction now.. the MACD on the hourlies shows an upward cross attempting to happen.. if it fails to cross.. Goodbye GBP..

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

These levels GBP/USD is a buy - the potential reward is far higher than the potential risk

 

[bongofury]

i guess it depends what your view is of government action. if gordon is borrowing so much to support a banking system that grew too big for the economy (like iceland) then we are in trouble and sterling could collapse although perhaps not so hard against the euro where there are similar probs. if people perceive there is no point in buying sterling will they buy the huge number of gilts that will be needed to plug the hole. if not then its goodnight

 

[tripleogstar]

Just got to pay close attention to home sales figures in the U.S and here in the U.K. I mean, if figures continue getting worse, just shows that the value of these mortgage backed securities, that these firms are holding and can not get rid of as there is no longer a market for the stuff, is deteriorating and more govt aid will be required to keep these banks in business. So everything from sterling to gilts will continue falling. Really depends on whether the central banks will actually buy these toxic assets, which I believe is the best proposition out there to solve this problem

 

[snake86]

For those thinking about medium-term long Sterling positions

Notice: For those who think this is just another ramble about UK's woes, kindly move on to the next post or thread...

I wouldn't want to take a medium-term long position in Sterling, with anyone's 10-foot-pole. The fundamentals for this country are just not supportive of a significant bounce back and history is no guide here. Though, it's OK to take technical long positions based on daily trading ranges, indicators, what have you...

The history studying chartists and fundamentalists kept coming out of the wood works throughout last year saying that Sterling was ready for a bounce back but it was having none of that because of the poor conditions facing our country. One needs to see a significant turnaround in Government policies and economic fundamentals in order to see a medium to long term sustained rise in the Sterling.

One of the only factors that could give Sterling a floor right now is weakness in the US dollar, but if the current trading theme of "buy dollars when the world is being flushed down the toilet" continues for most of 2009, then one can't see much hope for Sterling at these levels.

Also, as many of the news articles have noted across the Internet, general foreign demand for our sovereign debt and equities will keep falling until the economic fundamentals get back in reasonable (not necessarily best) shape, except for those investments by the likes of Sovereign Wealth Funds which are made by the constant coaxing from our Government leaders.

On top of that - the UK currently has to compete with sovereign debt issues made by other nations which is not going to bode well, and wouldn't be surprised if we start printing cold hard cash, though it won't do much good for the vast amounts in foreign-currency denominated debt obligations bagged by our "prestigious" financial institutions in need of a hand. If market participants get a true whiff of that, than Sterling will see even more trouble ahead.

In summary, we are mostly scuppered until our Government leaders, monetarists and economists stop thinking about supporting the free lunch theory of economics and get down to real business !

Oh... and lets not even starting talking about the future course of UK interest rates heading towards the proverbial Zero.

... in my humble opinion.

 

[Pippy5000]

I'll say it just one more time.. It's hard to kill a currency..

to the 75 cent crowd:

I told you so .. I told you so .. I told you so..

How much more money do I need to make going long Cable before you accept that the reports of the death of the GBP have been greatly exaggerated?? The downward moves silly.. The market will eat you up if you try to push things for political gain or whatever silly reasons you have for trying to kill the GBP.. Push it down a little more. .I DARE YOU! You keep making me rich buying dips.. It's incredibly easy and lazy trading to take your money..

Steak and lobster again? I'm getting bored..