How will you trade the Brexit referendum results?

[Jason101]

Interesting idea. Not enough info. For the benefit of the members, they may need to know when and how results will be announced. If you have info on how this will play out, please share.

Found this, 382 counting areas whose results will be collated by 12 regions. It will be the regions that declare and the approximate times of declaration are listed.

The Electoral Commission are providing data to broadcasters to help them provide information on voting totals throughout the night, including local and regional totals once they have been announced.

The Commission will not have a live results feed on their website. Broadcasters running live count event programmes and newswires have been given access to a feed of data from the referendum result collation system that the Electoral Commission will be using, so will be able to get information in real-time throughout the night.
Please note that local and regional totals will only be sent to broadcasters on the data feed once the Electoral Commission receive confirmation they have been announced locally, which means there will be a slight delay between local / regional declarations and the information broadcasters / newswires receive from the Electoral Commission . Local authorities will also publish results on their respective websites once Counting Officers have declared their local result and the Electoral Commission are encouraging everyone to use #EURefResults when tweeting totals.

The traders trading this way will have lists of predicted pole results for each of the 382 local authorities. And the trading decisions will be based on the differences from the prediction to the actual results.

For the average chap though, it may be easier to trade on the 12 government local area results.

I think the most important decision is what to trade. Trading sterling on the results just seems crazy to me. The volatility will be nuts and the banks have set themselves up with so many disclaimers for tomorrow that they can basically do what they want. Fill, don't fill, gap don't gap. They basically have the ability to do what the h*ll they want to ensure payback time for getting smacked by the SNB.

I think a safer trade would be to trade the flight to safety. JPY, Swissy or even gold on the night if it's an exit and probably abstain if it's the more likely stay in result.

If you are unsure in any way then STAY AWAY FROM THE MARKETS until next week.
With wild swings YOU COULD LOOSE EVERYTHING. IG are currently on a 6% margin on sterling. For cable you would need £890 for every £1 you wish to trade. (at the time of this post.)

 

[Oscar Reed]

Just another day.

Reduce size maybe.

But if see opportunity take it.

Should be plenty of opportunity in Asia and the switch from Asia close to Europe open.

So much talk about it, might be a non event when it happens.

@highbury fx

I think the move's have been great for the retail trader in the last 2 weeks in Asia and Europe.
Maybe the media have scared the investor and trader off.

Was not going to back off.
But being forced now the ASX is just chop.
Guess it will waken up in 18 hours.

 

[zaysev36]

Well we definitely are going to regret any outcome...

 

[NVP]

ding ding London morning over .......jees what a Brexit day so far

Yen got clobbered !!!!
over 200 pip selloff on yen .......
EJ to + 220 pips since early London , UJ to +100
GU buys cleared the 100 pip mark
ucad sells to -100 pips

if you cant scalp positive pips in this environment (500+ net pip moves on just the pairs above) in about 4-5 hours then please do not pass go and do not collect £200

N

 

[Jason101]

@ NVP, apparently there were two opinion polls responsible for that move

 

[ForexProCommunity]

SELL. SELL and SELL
https://forexpro.community/en/blog/2016/06/another-wave-of-crisis-risk-is-rising

 

[Jason101]

WOW Sunderland, What a RUSHHHHH !!!!!!!!

 

[NVP]

The political and economic landscape of the UK and indeed Europe will never ever be the same again from this day


N

 

[zaysev36]

Hoi wei, glad I've sold most of this, phew...

 

[babyjake1961]

The political and economic landscape of the UK and indeed Europe will never ever be the same again from this day


N

How big was your loss?

 

[metrader]

Well, if I can think of trading it without stops (they're going to hit stops left, right and centre...)

Anyway my idea is to buy gbpeur, gbpusd, eurusd. FTSE, DAX etc. Somehow I think UK is staying in, although I may be wrong. After all, that's why it could be exciting to trade this event (and maybe expensive if one didn't guess correctly)

If I've traded it, it could've been very painfull:whistling

 

[darktone]

If I've traded it, it could've been very painfull:whistling

you used to be all about the fade, no stops, what happened?

 

[metrader]

you used to be all about the fade, no stops, what happened?

I think I changed my trading style.

Anyway I'm still trying to find a reasonable way to trade without stops (without risking big losses). The best so far I came with is if I use 'hard' stops that are further away than 'working' stops - places where I get out the moment I feel the price is not going my way. But you can't use that to trade this kind of events.

I was reading something about options, but have no practical knowledge. That may be a good way to trade without stops?

 

[tar]

I think I changed my trading style.

Anyway I'm still trying to find a reasonable way to trade without stops (without risking big losses). The best so far I came with is if I use 'hard' stops that are further away than 'working' stops - places where I get out the moment I feel the price is not going my way. But you can't use that to trade this kind of events.

I was reading something about options, but have no practical knowledge. That may be a good way to trade without stops?

You shouldn't fear trading with stops , it can be done , no investor would like you to trade his money without stops , its all about your trades quality , improve it , that being said you may want to try time based stops instead , ie. close at the end of the 5 minutes , hour , day ... etc . Here is an another tip dont use fixed distance stops , ie . always 20 pips away , or always 10 pips away ... etc .

Hedging with otm options is ok if you are swing trading not daytrading forget it .

 

[swissy]

You shouldn't fear trading with stops , it can be done , no investor would like you to trade his money without stops , its all about your trades quality , improve it , that being said you may want to try time based stops instead , ie. close at the end of the 5 minutes , hour , day ... etc . Here is an another tip dont use fixed distance stops , ie . always 20 pips away , or always 10 pips away ... etc .

Hedging with otm options is ok if you are swing trading not daytrading forget it .

An excellent post tar, tbh those components are some of the decisive factors that turned my trading round. I had to learn them the hard way. Not for beginners or those that have regular lapses of discipline though.

 

[zaysev36]

You shouldn't fear trading with stops , it can be done , no investor would like you to trade his money without stops , its all about your trades quality , improve it , that being said you may want to try time based stops instead , ie. close at the end of the 5 minutes , hour , day ... etc . Here is an another tip dont use fixed distance stops , ie . always 20 pips away , or always 10 pips away ... etc .

Hedging with otm options is ok if you are swing trading not daytrading forget it .

What's the point of time based stops? Haven't heard about them before, can't see why would I use them instead of usual stop loss.

 

[ForexProCommunity]

check this out. economic calendar for this week

 

[TKariuki]

Hi guys,

I have been doing research on the strategies used by online retail currency traders and have found that most of the studies out there don’t seem to focus on retail currency traders or look into them as a section of global currency traders. (Frommel, Hang, & Van Gysegem, 2015) (Neely & Weller, 2011) (Bank for International Settlements, 2011) and (Omrane, Bauwens, & Giot, 2003) are an example of such studies (you can check for the references to them below). The studies shown above represent many studies conducted on strategies used in currency trading that have a general view of who trades currencies.
Although there are some studies that point to online retail currency traders (which I can share in my literature review), they are simply not enough. Especially given the fact that the currency markets are more accessible today and online retail currency traders are increasingly becoming a key part of the global currency trade.

Another problem I found while conducting my research was that lot of research done on trading strategies fails to discuss the underlying reasons for choosing a trading strategy. Studies like Pukthuanthong-Le and Lee (2008) for instance used a database of currency futures from 1975 to 2006 to illustrate the existence of technical trading. Frommel Hang & Van Gysegem (2014) use models to establish a relationship between changing fundamentals and market volatility. Omrane, Bauwens & Giot (2003) look at intraday data within a certain framework and volatility models, to show spikes in volatility as a result of changing fundamentals. These studies point to certain strategies used in currencies but fail to show the underlying reason for their use. Even in studies like Cheung and Chinn (2001) that have a direct approach where they get information directly from surveys carried on institutional traders. The study doesn’t show why traders use certain strategies and not others.

All this has led me to believe that there is a need for information on retail currency traders, especially on the strategies they use and the reason for their use. If we are to move forward and reinvent ourselves there’s a need to understand where we stand and what motivates us.

This has motivated me to carry out a research to better understand retail currency traders, the strategies they use and the various factors behind their use. I believe that as a trading community we should build on our body of knowledge just as institutions carry extensive research on trends on their fields to help them move forward.

References

Frommel, M., Hang, X., & Van Gysegem, F. (2015). Further Evidence on Foreign Exchange Jumps and News Announcements. Emerging Market Finance and Trade, 774-787
Neely, C., & Weller, P. (2011). Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market. ST Louis: Federal Reserve Bank of ST Louis.
Bank for International Settlements. (2013). Triennial Central Bank Survey: Global Foreign Exchange Turnover in 2013. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
Omrane, W. B., Bauwens, L., & Giot, P. (2003, March). News Announcements, Market Activity and Volatility in the Euro/Dollar Foreign Exchange Market. CORE Discussion Paper.
Pukthuanthong-Le, K., & Lee, T. (2008). Weak-Form Efficiency in Currency Markets. Financial Analyst Journal.
Cheung, Y.-W., & Chinn, D. M. (2001). Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market. Journal of International Money and Finance, 439-471.