How will Trump's presidency now affect the U.S Dollar

[josevasquez23]

How do you guys think the Dollar will be affected now that Trump one the presidency?

 

[Zerologic]

Shortly after Trump's victory was assured, the USD immediately strengthened against other currencies, this may be due to Trump's promise to increase trade tariffs on American trade partners by around 10%, and on China to increase trade tariffs by at least 60%, maybe a trade war will happen again with China. However, whether during Trump's term as president, the USD will strengthen is still a question.

 

[Simon54]

Although no one can foresee the future, there’s reason to be optimistic thatTrump’s policies which he talked about during the election is kinda inclined towards making the US dollar strong again.
If Trump's administration takes a more pro-business and tax-friendly posture, the U.S. dollar might strengthen due to potential growth measures. However, his earlier focus on reducing trade deficits may lead to changes in the nature of global trade, which could impact dollar stability. The dollar may become more volatile as traders act to both domestic and international economic policies, and market confidence in his programs will be crucial.

 

[Zerologic]

The strengthening of the USD seems to be continuing, there is news that Trump has appointed Elon Musk to be the leader of the D.O.G.E (Department of Government Efficiency) which is tasked with dissecting government bureaucracy, cutting excessive regulations, eliminating useless budgets, and restructuring federal institutions. This move may be considered positive by the market which may add support to the strengthening USD.

 

[NVP]

I think the best thing to happen to forex is trumps return.....it stirs the volatility pot big time

I don't need to predict the direction of usd or any currency....I just need volatility

N

 

[gka]

I think the best thing to happen to forex is trumps return.....it stirs the volatility pot big time

I don't need to predict the direction of usd or any currency....I just need volatility

N

Contrary to NVP, I prefer to have directional not volatile FX. Less stress and more basis points to be had. I use a piece of mathematics I call the Volatility Response Model for FX or vrmfx for short. I am told by the T2W moderator that I cannot point the reader to the thread that describes this method so you will have to search T2W.

Essentially the vrmfx calculates the H/L/C for 1 through 8 days (short term) and 1 through 8 weeks (long term) into the future. The predicted C (close) in the next time period turns out to be the market sentiment over the whole of that next time period. Above C and the market is bullish over that time scale. And below C and the market is bearish over that time scale. Chaos or volatility happens when the market gets trapped in between the vrmfx levels.

The final piece of the puzzle for me resides in the JPY, CAD and CHF currencies. Traders can start with a pot of JPY, CAD and CHF and then proceed to sell these currencies and convert them to EUR, GBP, USD, AUD and NZD and then convert back again to JPY, CAD and CHF.

EUR, GBP, USD, AUD and NZD watch the JPY, CAD and CHF currencies like a hawk looking for the opinions of these currencies for buy and sell signals. Here are the triplets to look at to see which currencies JPY, CAD and CHF prefer.

GBPUSD X USDJPY = GBPJPY
EURUSD X USDJPY = EURJPY

GBPUSD X USDCAD = GBPCAD
EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

GBPUSD X USDCHF = GBPCHF
EURUSD X USDCHF = EURCHF

So the vrmfx says to go look at what the USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF are all doing with the USD.

Here is an example for Friday 24th of January just gone with the three sets of charts attached. Chart times are 4 hours behind London. All the three charts attached show weekly vrmfx levels top row and daily vrmfx bottom row for the FX pairs.

The first chart for JPY shows

GBPUSD X USDJPY = GBPJPY
EURUSD X USDJPY = EURJPY

So what happened in these triplets? USDJPY went sideways on the day trapped between the vrmfx levels 156.63 and 155.00. The JPY had no opinion about the USD whether to buy or sell in a trend. So the remaining FX pairs in these two triplets were all bullish. 100+ basis points to be made on the remaining FX pairs.

The second chart shows

GBPUSD X USDCAD = GBPCAD
EURUSD X USDCAD = EURCAD

So what happened in these triplets? USDCAD went sideways on the day trapped between the vrmfx levels 1.4383 and 1.4320. The CAD had no opinion about the USD whether to buy or sell in a trend. So the remaining FX pairs in these two triplets were all bullish. 100+ basis points to be made on the remaining FX pairs.

Finally the third chart shows

GBPUSD X USDCHF = GBPCHF
EURUSD X USDCHF = EURCHF

So what happened in these triplets? USDCHF went sideways trapped between the vrmfx levels 0.9070 and 0.9031. The CHF had no opinion about the USD whether to buy or sell in a trend. So the remaining FX pairs in these two triplets were all bullish. 100+ basis points to be made on the remaining FX pairs.

The bottom line for me is, for whatever trading analysis method you use, to go look at USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF. And see what their opinion is about the USD. Last Friday JPY, CAD and CHF had no opinion so moved sideways trading USD and had lots of volatility.

For those who like the stress then go trade on the volatility. I prefer to look at the charts every hour to see how the markets are progressing and to understand how the JPY, CAD and CHF see the USD.

gka

P.S. Forgot to mention. The blue-red channel in the three charts attached is the EMA(4,7) channel which should be in all trade platforms. vrmfx levels steer the EMA(4,7) channel.

 

[Simon54]

I think the best thing to happen to forex is trumps return.....it stirs the volatility pot big time

I don't need to predict the direction of usd or any currency....I just need volatility

N

How do you take advantage of big moves?

 

[Xavier1]

How do you guys think the Dollar will be affected now that Trump one the presidency?

Trump’s presidency could influence the dollar in several ways, depending on his economic policies. Historically, his administration’s tax cuts, deregulation, and trade policies have created volatility. A stronger economy could boost the dollar, but aggressive trade wars or policy uncertainty might weaken it. The market will likely react to any changes in fiscal policy, global trade relations, and Federal Reserve decisions under his leadership.