Based on Garvo's posts - as he appears to have a firm grasp on the topic - the obvious trade to take IMO is to short Bitcoin and go long Iota. That way one gets the relative safety of a pairs trade whilst having some exposure to crytpos. Disaster would only really strike if Bitcoin's bubble is a long way from bursting (and it continues to skyrocket) while Iota tanks. As for the mechanics of executing such a trade - I have no idea!
Tim.
Indeed, in the long term I am with IOTA and my vision is more moderate about the cryptoassets that many involved.
Of course I have exposure to several cryptos, and start with bitcoin, but I found technology that is more compatible with my ideology.
You have to understand that bitcoin is a movement of cypherpunks that begins to germinate shortly after the crash of 2007-2008 and the bailouts that the central banks of the world executed.
It seems that few remember the monstrous that this crisis was, perhaps not because of its social impact but because of what it showed about the banking system.
In general terms we could say that bitcoin is nothing more than an application to replace centralized banking. In its origins it emerges as a peer to peer cash system and an anarcho-capitalist alternative to traditional banking.
This is mainly observed in the countries where the crisis was strongest: Greece, Cyprus, Spain, USA.
Soon, some begin to see the bitcoin not only as an application to replace but to destroy the entire FIAT system: this movement of survivors in the beginning fixed on metals and bet on the return of gold and silver and the disappearance of the dollar . They believed in bunkers, acquire firearms and the creation of anarchist communities, their greatest exponent is perhaps DollarVigilante.
Another current believes that hyperbitcoinization will come and considers that at one point a collapse like that of the Weimar Republic will be inevitable for banks. Although his way of thinking is radical, it seems only to focus on the economy. Many bitcoin owners on a large scale are willing to "hodl" their bitcoins until this happens.
Of course these two groups of people do not see bitcoin as an asset but as a means to a social revolution, they do not really have an interest in bitcoin neither as a means of monetary exchange nor as a store of value.
A third group considers bitcoin as a novel tool that eradicates all the economic problems of FIAT ... this group grew strong in 2013-2016 but began to be divided into two subgroups:
one that considers that bitcoin should be a medium of exchange
one that considers that the bitcoin will be a store of value -a kind-gold standard-
Currently there is a cleanup of sides and we do not know who will win yet. Personally I do not know if there will be hyperbitcoinization or if it will be the new gold standard.
But if I consider that this technology has revolutionized the way in which accounting is carried out. And this, in the future, will be the foundation of the IoT and eventually the Internet of Everything.
That's where IOTA comes in and this is where my thinking is, a conservative market of 20-30 trillion in the medium term -2-3 years- and much more in the long term.
However, as an exchange technology, cryptoassets could perfectly occupy those 100 trillion that exist in FIAT. I am not a fortune teller and I can not predict if it will be Bitcoin or Ether or Bitcoin Cash or DASH or Ripple. So my short-term exposure is varied but definitely focused more on the cryptos as a means of exchange -DASH, Bitcoin Cash, Monero, Litecoin, Ripple-. Anyway, if it turns out to be a gold standard, most of the rest of the crypto are exposed to bitcoin and not dollar.
