Well, throw out the deragatory comments and that's actually an intersting reply, CY.
Thx
IMO, the most important thing to know about any trading system is how much draw down you can whether, NOT what the positive expectancy is.
Rubbish
Reality is that most people get shaken out of a good system because they are not prepared for draw down which is infact historical.
More Rubbish
It is *so* important to know whether your system just broke because the market "changed" or whether, you encounted draw down well within the historical range.
Even More Rubbish
How would one know this without backtesting?
You trade opportunity - not TEXTBOOK stuff
Maybe you are of the opinion that one can never know the direction of the market.
100% - and why do you think you might need to know?
Some do believe this, but I sure don't. Trend Following works, but attempts fail because "trend" when major characteristics of a trend are not defined.
If you want to be an investor - fine - but we are talking about trading for a living here, with returns in the region of 2% to 5% per day - not the pension fund stuff that you are on about.