How To Think Correctly

[yacarob1]

Excellent FXSCALPER2

This must rate as "Post of The Year".

 

[wasp]

Excellent FXSCALPER2

This must rate as "Post of The Year".

Seconded.

 

[new_trader]

Pretty unfair stopping at 85 ..some of us feel excluded.

What is your occupation and IQ?

 

[neil]

Sir - Sir - I know.............

What is your occupation?

Deputy Prime Minister :cheesy:


(With apologies to Chump)

 

[neil]

Hi FX,

Whilst a lot of what you say is true, in that the act of trading will not have any major impact on your normal social activities (well, not until you have become financially independent, as we all know the benefits that can be realised by winning the lottery!) one can not deny that one has to think before one can act.

To write these words I must think - no argument here!

The whole point is this - the way one thinks will determin the way one acts.

I believe that trading tends to bring out many conflicting thoughts. This is due to the way we are brought up - which, whether we like it or not, has the greatest impact on the way we think.

To say that the way you think has nothing to do with the way your trade, can not be correct.

It can not be - due to the fact that you have to think before you act!

This thread was not started with a view to discussing psycho babble, as some will call it, but discussing factual points in relation to how the way one thinks' can affect the way one trades'.

Again, it is the results that matter.

As mentioned in the previous posts, if one wants to get a TRUE picture of how they are doing as a trader, then you must work out the Expectancy of your system.

If anyone is brave enough to back up their words with actual results, then I will happily assist with the compiling of the trading data to get the real Expectancy figure. This figure tells all, nothing to hide behind and fool oneself.

I plan to do my own this weekend, which I know will be negative, but the whole point here is the understanding that in order to make any progress, the first step is admitting that you may know very little about most things.

Why don't we all try to help each other, instead of trying to out speak or outsmart each other.

Results are all that matter - period.

Whether you think, p**s, s**t, f**t, or f**k, there is still only one think that matters in the end - the results of your trading.

Whatever can improve the results is what one should be concentrating on - and in my opinion, because you have to think before you act, then how you think in relation to trading is definitely going to determine how you act in relation to trading.

Your results, i.e, your Expectancy figure, tells you exactly where you are, and even better, can greatly assist you in achieving your objectives.

Regards,

Garbage !

Anal gazing does not make you a trader. :!:

get out there and get on with it - try different approaches but don't waste time in Nerdy corner

 

[new_trader]

Deputy Prime Minister :cheesy:


(With apologies to Chump)

Unfortunately I made the assumption that Chump was one of the "some" being excluded. He may have only been speaking on their behalf, so I edited my post accordingly..

 

[CYOF]

I am always amazed at how some people always seem to have an answer for everything - but at the same time do not appear to have any supporting information to back up their answers!

If they have, then it is a simple matter of courtesy, and something like, well, here is how it works for me and my results are just fine!

If there are so many experts out there - then why is it not so obvious, why does it not stick out like a sore thumb!

If it is a matter of keeping the so called "edge", then why the participation at all if one has no interest in sharing their experiences with others?

Myself, I will always be the first to admit when I am wrong, and I have no problem with that, but admitting why I am wrong is of no use to someone else if I am not prepared to show them what I am talking about.

In Ireland, we have a very physical sport called hurling.

But, we also have hundreds of thousands of experts who sit on the sidelines - we call them "hurlers on the ditch", some of whom never actually played at the senior level game in their whole life, but they are still experts of course.

Trading is probably no different!

I think I am now beginning to see why Socrates says some of the things he says.

It is of course up to each reader to form their own opinion, but in order to form a subjective opinion one has to first have an adequate amount of relevant information.

Maybe I am actually stupid, but the fact is, I don't really care if my IQ is 25, what I do care about is how to be come a consistent profitable trader in the shortest time possible.

I am sorry to say, that up to now, I have not got any real value from participation in this site, but that may be due to the fact that I was not willing to put in some serious effort on my part - and I don't mean just talking about things!

Hopefully that will change?

 

[new_trader]

what I do care about is how to be come a consistent profitable trader in the shortest time possible.

I think this is the main problem. There are no shortcuts.

 

[CYOF]

Garbage !

Anal gazing does not make you a trader. :!:

get out there and get on with it - try different approaches but don't waste time in Nerdy corner

Hi Neil,

You might be kind enough to explain in what context the following should be considered?

neil
Many people would rather die than think: in fact, they do.
(Bertrand Russell)

Regards,

 

[neil]

True

I think this is the main problem. There are no shortcuts.

Correct - it involves study, practice, amendments, practice, study etc. Use the resources at the top of this page, practice. Don't be surprised if your endevours come full circle from growing complexity to relative simplicity ( KISS). It takes a lot of time and effort

 

[the blades]

I am sorry to say, that up to now, I have not got any real value from participation in this site, but that may be due to the fact that I was not willing to put in some serious effort on my part - and I don't mean just talking about things!

Hopefully that will change?

Sorry you feel that way. I think some (myself included) find this type of stuff far too abstract and as such we should just ignore it, rather than de-rail it.

In defence, it's probably the constant digs at "the masses" that draws "the masses" in.

Cheers,
UTB

 

[CYOF]

I think this is the main problem. There are no shortcuts.

But how do we know that unless we keep an open mind?

If I was fortunate enough to be able to spend some time on the electronic trading floor at the CME - then I may well be able to shorten the time taken.

For instance, some traders will have heard of a futures contract been "fungible", but many will not.

Can this knowledge be of any benefit to me as a daytrader?

Even though I my have to be operating on the floor of the CME in order to make use of this unique feature that some futures contract have, the fact that I am aware of it may assist in my understanding of why, at certain times, the futures price suddenly move in a certain direction for no apparent reason!

As Socrates says, my real understanding is knowing that I actually know nothing - just to keep the boys going:cheesy:

 

[CYOF]

Sorry you feel that way. I think some (myself included) find this type of stuff far too abstract and as such we should just ignore it, rather than de-rail it.

In defence, it's probably the constant digs at "the masses" that draws "the masses" in.

Cheers,
UTB

Point noted.

I tend to speak what is on my mind, and always try to keep to the facts, and the truth.

This is of course, not always the best thing to do, especially if one does not like criticism or conflict, but it always the right thing to do.

In the end, what is right always wins over what is wrong.

In relation to some of Socrates posts, as I am taking it that the dig at the "masses" is mostly due to Socrates - apologies if not - I actually think that this type of questioning is beneficial to a lot of traders.

Now, I do not like it when it gets personal - as in reality we are just talking to a computer screen - as some people are prone to taking some of these remarks too seriously.

Regards,

 

[new_trader]

But how do we know that unless we keep an open mind?

If I was fortunate enough to be able to spend some time on the electronic trading floor at the CME - then I may well be able to shorten the time taken.

For instance, some traders will have heard of a futures contract been "fungible", but many will not.

Can this knowledge be of any benefit to me as a daytrader?

Even though I my have to be operating on the floor of the CME in order to make use of this unique feature that some futures contract have, the fact that I am aware of it may assist in my understanding of why, at certain times, the futures price suddenly move in a certain direction for no apparent reason!

As Socrates says, my real understanding is knowing that I actually know nothing - just to keep the boys going:cheesy:

CYOF,

I am not experienced enough in trading to answer your question, but if you aked Tiger Woods how he became the most successful golfers of all time, do you think he would say:

"It's all about knowing that to accelerate an object is to change its velocity, which is accomplished by altering either its speed or direction (like in case of uniform circular motion) in relation to time. In this strict mathematical sense, acceleration can have positive and negative values (deceleration). Any time that the sign (+ or -) of the acceleration is the same as the sign of the velocity, the object will speed up. If the signs are opposite, the object will slow down. Acceleration is a vector defined by properties of magnitude (size or measurability) and direction. When either velocity or direction are changed, there is acceleration (or deceleration) kg & cm."

 

[dbphoenix]

I think this is the main problem. There are no shortcuts.

Actually, there are now a couple, such as replay. And even forums like this. However, there are no shortcuts through the testing process, and the only participant in this thread who's gone through it properly -- that I know of -- is wasp.

But the thread is about psychology, not about developing a strategy, and I have no interest in disrupting it. I want only to caution beginners that trading is immeasurably less difficult than implied here as long as one is willing to get on with it.

Db

 

[new_trader]

Actually, there are now a couple, such as replay.
Db

I have written a VB application in Excel to play my historical data one bar at a time, much like a live chart. I practise my trading this way. Is this the same as replay?

 

[CYOF]

CYOF,

I am not experienced enough in trading to answer your question, but if you aked Tiger Woods how he became the most successful golfers of all time, do you think he would say:

"It's all about knowing that to accelerate an object is to change its velocity, which is accomplished by altering either its speed or direction (like in case of uniform circular motion) in relation to time. In this strict mathematical sense, acceleration can have positive and negative values (deceleration). Any time that the sign (+ or -) of the acceleration is the same as the sign of the velocity, the object will speed up. If the signs are opposite, the object will slow down. Acceleration is a vector defined by properties of magnitude (size or measurability) and direction. When either velocity or direction are changed, there is acceleration (or deceleration) kg & cm."

Exactly the point - we can only guess as to what he will say?

Now, on the other hand, if we were to go out and play golf, every day, for two or three years, and then meet him, we may be able to anticipate what he will say.

But if we make it our business to meet him, no matter what, then we will know what he will say, as soon as we ask him!

We tend to treat trading the same - think about what will happen if we do this or do that. Whilst some advice, IMHO, has been partially correct, in that you must just get out there and do it, the fact of the matter is, that it is far wiser to first discover the various options for doing it in a manner that will allow you to become a consistent winner - and I am not talking about your standard TA analysis. I am talking about learning what trading is all really about - and that means learning about yourself. Again, the best way that I can think of, after trying and looking at several ways, is to evaluate your results. And the best way to evaluate your results, from what I have seen, is by knowing the Expectancy of your system.

Here is a statement to consider - to calculate an accurate Expectancy figure, the sample set, say for beginners, will need to be at least 20 trades. This is a very small number, but for this example it will do fine. Now, if you don't have 20 trades completed, well, need I say any more!

 

[dbphoenix]

I have written a VB application in Excel to play my historical data one bar at a time, much like a live chart. I practise my trading this way. Is this the same as replay?

No. Replay is literally replay, replaying the day second by second so that one can see the bar or line or indicator form in real time (anyone who uses indicators knows how they can change in real time in ways that aren't shown scrolling through a hindsight chart). One can also run the day in multiples of real time (2x, 5x, 10x, etc). In this way, one can develop and test a strategy in a weekend rather than in weeks or months.

Benefiting from the work of others is also a type of shortcut. Magee, Douglas, and Wyckoff provided me with significant "shortcuts".

Db

 

[dbphoenix]

We tend to treat trading the same - think about what will happen if we do this or do that. Whilst some advice, IMHO, has been partially correct, in that you must just get out there and do it, the fact of the matter is, that it is far wiser to first discover the various options for doing it in a manner that will allow you to become a consistent winner - and I am not talking about your standard TA analysis. I am talking about learning what trading is all really about - and that means learning about yourself. Again, the best way that I can think of, after trying and looking at several ways, is to evaluate your results. And the best way to evaluate your results, from what I have seen, is by knowing the Expectancy of your system.

And this is where you continue to veer off track. Yes, find out how to profit from both the long and short sides by "discovering", or investigating, or testing, the various options. However, none of this has anything to do with "learning about yourself". Yourself is irrelevant. As is "expectancy".

"Thinking" about what "will" happen is a distraction from the most important issue of what is happening right in front of you. This can be determined only by watching price move (and charts form, if one is using charts), not by devoting one's day to posting.

No offense.

Db

 

[wasp]

No. Replay is literally replay, replaying the day second by second so that one can see the bar or line or indicator form in real time (anyone who uses indicators knows how they can change in real time in ways that aren't shown scrolling through a hindsight chart). One can also run the day in multiples of real time (2x, 5x, 10x, etc). In this way, one can develop and test a strategy in a weekend rather than in weeks or months.

Benefiting from the work of others is also a type of shortcut. Magee, Douglas, and Wyckoff provided me with significant "shortcuts".

Db

I can certainly vouch for that. Using the MA's I do, after one dry run and alot of backtesting, I thought I had it too a tee and then in real time I found my signals vanish at times so I had to work in something for that so all bases are covered. Before money was properly put on the line, I then had to go through a few months on paper working out a contingency for those problems.

If I had the replay facility I could have condensed it into a much shorter time frame but it does need to be done second by second. Never found the facility for FX though unfortunately but I'm certainly not complaining now. Looking back, I don't think I would have got to the stage I am now with shortcuts or if I had condensced all my learning into 6 months though.

Like guiness, good things come to those who.................... (No Irish pun intended CYOF).