How To Know When News Is Already Priced Into The Market???!!

[Mr. Charts]

"if you are in a long position the time to exit is when you think it's time to go short"


I can't agree with that. Your assumption appears to be that there has to be a sharp reversal. That is obviously untrue.
Very often the best time to exit is when the momentum of the move appears to have died. Often price enters a period of consolidation or random movement. That is certainly not a signal to short.
Richard

 

[Trader333]

But the other 20% the time when it does the opposite how do you all work this out in-advance before the news is confirmed??

In my view you can't and that is why news trading, (which I have done and successfully) is tricky. Without using direct access I would never even consider trading the news.


Paul

 

[Trader333]

However you could argue that if you are in a long position the time to exit is when you think it's time to go short

In my view it is not about always being in a position, which you actually stated when you said abstain. So in most cases I will not reverse but go flat when I think it is time to exit.


Paul

 

[spanish89]

In my view it is not about always being in a position, which you actually stated when you said abstain. So in most cases I will not reverse but go flat when I think it is time to exit.


Paul

Thats similar to how i do oil..

If i think its going down that day i will only sell, but cash-in at every dip, wait for the slight pullback, and then re-sell again.


But wont try to the ol 1-2 of selling and cashing in at dip, then buying back quick enough to cash in on the pullback and then reslling fast enough... as this is just done by foolish greedy people who wll always lose i the end as they wont be fast enough and so get caught in a buy. lol:

 

[spanish89]

Thats similar to how i do oil..
If i think its going down that day i will only sell, but cash-in at every dip, wait for the slight pullback, and then re-sell again.

I personally call this 'bargain hunting'.. :cheesy:

 

[TheBramble]

Spanish, are you hard of hearing or just hard of thinking....?

A whole thread pointing you in the right direction and you're still licking your balls...

Tell you what mate, I'll hammer it home OR I'll make a tyro trader of you…or one of us will perish in the process. OK?

This Wednesday, July 9 in the UK round about 09:30 (don’t get tanked the night before – I need you cold, sober, awake and hungry for this one…) there will be an announcement regarding UK trade balance. How do you think the UK trade balance is going to come out? Do you know? Have you done any research? Are you just going to guess based on the price of your last kebab?

Based on your ‘research’ what impact do you think that number will have on sterling?

Based on your expected impact on sterling, what position will you be thinking of taking on which GBP pair? Or non-GBP pair?

Think it through and come up with a reasoned and rational strategy for how you would, in principle, trade this upcoming news announcement.

THEN

Think of what you will need to add to your strategy to cover you if (a) you’re right (b) you’re wrong and (c) if ‘they’ just make you think you’re wrong before showing you you were right all along.

Come on mate. You’ve got the Euro and Wimbledon – make it a hat trick!

 

[spanish89]

A whole thread pointing you in the right direction and you're still licking your balls...

Tell you what mate, I'll hammer it home OR I'll make a tyro trader of you…or one of us will perish in the process. OK?

This Wednesday, July 9 in the UK round about 09:30 (don’t get tanked the night before – I need you cold, sober, awake and hungry for this one…) there will be an announcement regarding UK trade balance. How do you think the UK trade balance is going to come out? Do you know? Have you done any research? Are you just going to guess based on the price of your last kebab?

Based on your ‘research’ what impact do you think that number will have on sterling?

Based on your expected impact on sterling, what position will you be thinking of taking on which GBP pair? Or non-GBP pair?

Think it through and come up with a reasoned and rational strategy for how you would, in principle, trade this upcoming news announcement.

THEN

Think of what you will need to add to your strategy to cover you if (a) you’re right (b) you’re wrong and (c) if ‘they’ just make you think you’re wrong before showing you you were right all along.

Come on mate. You’ve got the Euro and Wimbledon – make it a hat trick!

Im not sure why some people still have this impression of me as this loutish rouge sorta kebab eating beer guzzling newbie who just makes trade for fun not really based on anything..!!

I personally dont get angry or annoyed as im not an aggressive person and at end of the day this is only a website forum...
But i would have thought that after providng on countless occassions over and over and over, consistently day after day, call after call, that every single forecats i made i was correct about, that that would be enough to end all this questioning about my skill.

But many people still are so against my style of trading that they just refuse to achknowlege this..


But i am willing to happily accept your challenge and offer and give my forecast for this event.

But just so you know mate i dont just wakeup, click a button to make a trade, then go away again...,
i am actually willing to bet i spend more time online researching about every news release and market, every single day than you do.


Im not trying to brag or gloat or say you dont research, as i am sure you do also do alot...,
But despite the image people on here have of me as this jokey laughy friendly happy chatty sorta guy, im not happy inside, i have an extreme deep constant sadness inside due to things that happend in my personal life, and that are continuing to worsen everyday.
I lost the 1 thing i had that was my whole life, and so while i simply live in hope of it returning, trading is now my entire life.

Sounds sad n pathetic i know, but i spend about 96% of my awake time on my laptop trading, on this site discussing trading, or on the web researching news about data and numbers coming out the next day...,
As this is all i have left in my life that i like.


But thats enough of my personal life stuff though... :|:|





I personally dont trade fx, and so my forecast shouldnt be taken as anything concrete or a call you should follow to all the people who are follwing my other calls and forecasts.

Im good with oil and ftse though so i will use those 2 as my centre point..

Even though i believe the fste is going to start to recover this week and hit 5800 within the next 1 t 2weeks,, and that oil will pullback to 137/9, the trade balance is the measurement of trade that took place over the last 1month, and so futures are irrelevant in this number.


So over the last 1month we have seen the ftse fall extremely heavily, (i called sell ftse heavily 2days beofre this fall came!!), and we have seen oil rocket.


While like i said im no expert at all on fxs and so i may be getting this completely wrong, il use logic and human pyschology to try and forecast like i do with the other markets i trade...

Most of the imports into the UK come from china.
I know this as a personal fact as i run a small shipping company from China to the uk!
The oil rise has been making the shipping cost go up alot more as it costs more to buy the fuel needed, and so the UK will have cut down substancially on imports as they will be very expensive, especially since the economy is having so many problems mainly due to the banking sector!

(i have no idea how the chinese yuan is currently agaisnt the £, and i dont have the energy to search for a chart soz).


But i think the UK will have cut down on importing, as in a basic explanation we are trying to save money since we dont have much anymore as it is.


Im not actually sure what the UK exports, as its such a **** country im not sure what we can have to sell to any other country of any actual value to them apart from stuff like beef and higher quality meat i guess...

As anything physical can be made in and ten bought from China for a mere fraction of the price the UK would charge for it.



But so i think that the UK imports will be slightly t moderately lower than expected, although im not sure to what extent they have already been priced in.. :cheesy:


So i would probably wait till the number came out officallu before i bought any fx futures.

If im correct though and its better than expectd, so we imported less last month than previously i would buy into the gbp/eur futures with a stoploss at about 1.1500 just to be ridiculously safe, and would be doing a long term posiition trade for a few weeks ot months, depening on what else happens in the world and markets ofcourse though.


Im not sure what some gbp/eur correlating pairs are, but you could findout and buy them too if you saw taht you were right after a day or 2.


I wont get into hedging yourself with the inversely moving pair, as this is rather a waste of money tbh.






What is your forecast though and how will you trade it depending if i am correct mate??

 

[Splitlink]

Everyone makes his own reputation. You made yours in your first threads. Trading is a very serious business. You are very fortunate to have TheBramble, Paul and others taking an interest in you and, since I am interested in Footsie, as you are, I'm happy to read these posts but, please, cut down on the noise. It's as if you are more interested in repartee than the actual trading part.

Good trading

Split

 

[new_trader]

"if you are in a long position the time to exit is when you think it's time to go short"


I can't agree with that. Your assumption appears to be that there has to be a sharp reversal. That is obviously untrue.
Very often the best time to exit is when the momentum of the move appears to have died. Often price enters a period of consolidation or random movement. That is certainly not a signal to short.
Richard

I didn't make any assumptions and you quoted me out of context. I said: However you could argue that if you are in a long position the time to exit is when you think it's time to go short, or if you would abstain had you not had an open position.

 

[TheBramble]

OK Spanish, haven’t been following your earlier posts, but as split points out, you set your own style and you get to live with it. Anyhooo….

Didn’t realise you didn’t trade FX so this exercise will be less useful in that there will be less impact on an index than there will be on a GBP denominated FX pair, but allons-y.

Bit surprised that you run a China-UK shipping company and don’t know the exchange rate. You sure you’re telling the truth there Spanish? LOL.

And thanks for the “don’t follow my call” warning, I wasn’t about to.

You got confused with what you think you know best (oil and FTSE) and set an expectation of how your analysis of trade data (which I presume you’ve never studied before) will fall based on your preconceptions of those other two factors. It’s right there in your post. You need to let go of everything else you think you know to focus on something like this objectively.

You then hazard a guess on the basis for considering why the UK will have to cut down on its imports. Largely irrelevant. You’re looking at the wrong stuff. I’m asking you to go micro (deductive) and you’re going macro (inductive).

As for UK exports (no idea if it is a **** country), but check out commercial and financial services. Imports and Exports and not purely tangible products.

You finally come down to state (if I’ve understood your slant correctly) you feel the trade figures will be rosy, better, improved even though you’ve made a case for them macro-economically, not being so. And then you quite sensibly state that if that is the case, you don’t know to what extent that information has already been priced in. Which is where this thread started.

You’re going to wait for the figures to come out before acting. How long? Which way? What will you do if they go up and what will you do if they go down? Which way do you expect them to go? What will you do if it reverses after you’ve gone in? Do you have any formal plan of action for trading anything you trade?

You also suggest buying GBPEUR? (EURGBP feels better). Even if your analysis is correct, where’s your analysis of the Eurozone? An FX pair is exactly what it says – a relative measure of the economies of two separate countries or geo-zones. You can’t just analyse one of them. Big stop loss and presumably concomitant small size and therefore low reward? And then you’re going to hold it for an indeterminate amount of time (weeks, months) ‘depending on what else happens in the world markets’ – LOL.

Spanish, if you’re as lop-sided in your trading as you come across in your posts, you’ll be capsizing quicker than a clipper on the stormy China Sea.

What is your forecast though and how will you trade it depending if i am correct mate??

{groan...} See my first post in this thread....