Housewife's Guide to Trading the EURUSD

[Texas_Hedge]

OH by the way ZDforex,

Congratulations on last nights cleanup operations in the forex markets, we felt the reverberations down here and traders from London to Jakarta reported large currency fluctuations throughout the Asian session.

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Should we rename this thread

"Trader's Wives"


You Vote

 

[Tomerep]

lol

 

[zdforex]

Hi Texas_Hedge,

Yes you are right, I think hedgefund managers all over the world have realized the potential of this simple tactic and they are starting to implement it, so we should start seeing more action.

As for me 10 pips a day keeps poverty away.

 

[Texas_Hedge]

Hi Texas_Hedge,

Yes you are right, I think hedgefund managers all over the world have realized the potential of this simple tactic and they are starting to implement it, so we should start seeing more action.

As for me 10 pips a day keeps poverty away.

OK OK let's get serious for a minute.

What about naming this thread "Trader's Wives" then,we could even post attachments

 

[Mr. Charts]

Good stuff on spreaders and swingers on
www.traderswives.com

 

[Tomerep]

Good stuff on spreaders and swingers on
www.traderswives.com

doesnt exist..

 

[seguna]

Zdf

Hi Seguna,
What matters is performance and consistency, and we're happy on both fronts.
Thanks

What exactly do you mean?

Your stop loss says you are willing to lose twice as much as you can potentially make on EVERY trade.

Can you explain how that works statistically?

Assuming your 'performance and consistency', which I presume to be 'high trade accuracy' was any good, you definitely do NOT need a stop loss twice the size of your profit target.

Please explain.

 

[zdforex]

Hi Seguna,

The attached file would help you calculate the account equity growth, risking 10% on 20 pips with starting capital $5000. It has been assumed that we have 90% winning trades feel free to change these parameters to whatever you like.

 

[fxmarkets]

i think zeds method needs 67% min hit rate over time to be in the money, i think he's mentioned before through research that he's factored for 80% with his plan. Now I know that by being around some times that zeds method kicks in, that reward and risk can be improved, but it requires discretion (subjective). Ive seen other posts on this forum where big stops are used for a r/r of acceptable ? levels 1; 2 or 3 ratios yet the profit is taken early so actual trading risk whilst the trade is open is huge,again discretion when in a trade being used as market action unfolds. Right or wrong ? not an issue as always its back to individuals.


ZD however simply chooses to state his known risk objectives and stick to his plan, this over time may well be enough against deeper level pure discretionary traders cutting trends short from stated profit objectives because of whatever their reasons? Consider that to breakeven in this business is something that many would be happy to aspire to and build upon, any wiff of consistent profit from ZD and his methods is beyond average for average participants.

I do not trade as zed does but am aware of his setups likely entry points around that time of the market if im still working on charts etc. I would suggest that it could be improved if you use discretion on the entry, sometimes ive notice like the call at long 1.2418 the other day it was not good value at that price and the actual price action i'd prefer waiting for a pull back for a long entry it traded towards 12405 and later when 40 pips upwards but this is beyond zeds trade window. His stop would of held on this occassion and targets met. Yet he closed because of his time window rule 3 hours. I see his thinking with these setups and feel that elements can be improved especially if he is watching the market. And perhaps extends his session another 3 Hours

So pullbacks for value to previous sessions relative s/r'S/extremes might be able to warrant a stop of 12/15 reward 30 + but I wouldnt chase the entry,s .

each to his own as always.

 

[BoyTrader]

Hi all,

Just started reading this thread & I cannot believe the exposure limits on this system!

ZD, can you explain how exactly you determine your entry & exits points?

 

[tipuagha]

Hi Zdtrader,

I cannot risk $5000, would you mind trading my real account for me from $500 to see your system at work ? I am sure everyone on this thread would really like to see your risk/reward ratio work on a smaller account...I will post the results on this tread for you as you take my account up or completely blow out.. what do you say ? I have just opened an account with VT which I can let you have to play with..

Let me know if interested.. ( I will not hold you liable for any losses )

 

[Spam Man]

Hi Seguna,

The attached file would help you calculate the account equity growth, risking 10% on 20 pips with starting capital $5000. It has been assumed that we have 90% winning trades feel free to change these parameters to whatever you like.

Congratulations zd, you have surpassed yourself. This might just be the most heroically stupid post I have ever read.

I think I may have spotted a tiny flaw in your argument : you have assumed 90% winning trades. Have you considered the possibility that this might not occur in live trading? So far on this thread you have posted three trades: one winner, one break even, and a loser. Let's be generous, and say that you held onto the break-even trade and it turned into a winner. So you therefore have 66.67% winning trades.

This is exactly what would be expected given that your stops are 2x profit target, and your entries (whether you realise this or not) are random.

Take a look at the attached spreadsheet. It's a sorta kinda Monte Carlo simulation. Running it simulates 5000 sets of 95 trades (the number you have in your spreadsheet). Run it a few times and you'll see that your chance of making money is (surprise surprise) about 50%, and your chance of blowing out your account completely is a totally unacceptable 10%. Your chance of avoiding a hefty drawdown is close to zero. This all assumes zero costs for trading or slippage. Run the simulation with something other that 0 in cell L12 and the outlook quickly becomes even worse.

 

[zdforex]

Hi everyone,

BoyTrader:

We use overbought and oversold indicators for entry and for exits its 10 pips target 20 pips stop (Remember our most important criteria is our trading timeframe).

tipuagha:

We are giving the trades rules live here, It might be possible to enter them, and you can leverage your risk to your liking.

SpamMan: Only time will tell, and the balance in the account is the real proof.

Good Day Everyone, and get ready for your 10 pips tonight! :cheesy:

 

[BoyTrader]

ZD, overbought & oversold indicators are part & parcel of any decision making system for placing trades based on TA, although my profile tells you im a Newbie im an experienced trader.... what im interested in is how exactly you choose your trades? ie. RSI being overbought at 70 alone surely does not constitute entering a short position.

If you can be bothered & want to make this thread more of a worth while read please include some detail.

BT

 

[Spam Man]

Only time will tell, and the balance in the account is the real proof.:

< sigh >

Wrong again. If you end up making money, which as I've explained you've got about a 50% chance of doing, it doesn't prove anything - you just got lucky. Start up enough of these threads, and sooner or later it is bound to happen. At that point you'll start burbling on about how great your system is and will no doubt make some money from selling it to gullible types.

If you end up losing money, you'll disappear before long (hopefully before I have to eat my computer as advertised) and re-emerge under a different alias, doing the same thing, as you've already done at least once.

That's why this thread, and I'm afraid your very existence, is fundamentally pointless.

 

[zdforex]

buy 1.2280

 

[fxmarkets]

Hi zed, Have you tried fine tuning your entry, with that call above if you can put on a ma of a tic rsi I have one set at period 10, ma 5 and 30 the time of your entry the tic rsi was going down stayed down and the 5 crossed the 30 at price 74 bid, maybe you'll be able to crank in your risk to 10 using a tic rsi, and also getting a better reward prospect 15,20 ? Put one on your chart and have a look mate.

FX.

Im sure you will be able to drastically improve your risk profile, R/R using the tic rsi ma to help you obtain value entries on all your trades.

 

[zdforex]

Thanks fxmarkets, I would be surely interested in enhancing my entries, I will look into you suggestions. thanks.

 

[zdforex]

got my +10 pips tonight, nice way to start the week