Hey Grey1, do I need to know this stuff?...

[Yuppie]

A question for anyone to contribute really. I would love to hear your view on this...

(note: I am currently getting up to speed with Iraj's various strategies, and plan to start trying one or two of them fairly soon, and fully documenting the process on here of course ... Also, not totally new to this, I have traded ForEx for a bit, hit-and-miss...)

I have a basic knowledge of what CCI is; why Lambert invented it, etc...

What I am in turmoil over is should I spend more time researching CCI and experimenting with it; since it is core to the various strategies put forward by Iraj, in the form of the MACCI...

OR

Just take what Iraj has given us as a gift from the horses mouth (nothing implied Iraj, just a well used and handy cliche to use), and stop messing around and get on with trading it?


I am pretty sure it is not possible to study enough about risk, probability, etc. and this is something I am starting to study properly since catching onto Iraj's posts/methods. I'm curious about the techniques for trading themselves, particularly the strategies Iraj has shown us, and if just a basic knowledge of these are really all that is required, together with experience... or do I need to go deeper...


Cheers,

Magnus

p.s. A BIG thank you to everyone who has contributed to TT forum over the last few years. Great, great stuff here. Shame I have only caught on now, but guess it just wasn't my time...

 

[Glenn]

What I am in turmoil over is should I spend more time researching CCI and experimenting with it; since it is core to the various strategies put forward by Iraj, in the form of the MACCI...

OR

Just take what Iraj has given us as a gift from the horses mouth (nothing implied Iraj, just a well used and handy cliche to use), and stop messing around and get on with trading it?

QUOTE]
Hi Magnus
Depends whether you want to drive the car or understand what's under the bonnet.
Will being fluent in high-tension circuitry or valve timing make you a better driver ?

As someone with a fair amount of Maths education I can say that it doesn't help me to understand CCI at that level.
For you (imo) it will be far quicker to learn to use the MACCI, to find out when and how it works and when it doesn't, because that takes time (let alone the time to get your discipline and emotions under control).
Knowing how CCI is calculated will tell you nothing about the times when MACCI doesn't 'work' - and those times are just as important to your success as when it does work.
Grey1 has given several gifts and basically said look guys this is what I use, I've proven publically that I make money using it (at the right time) , so get on and use it yourself and don't feel guilty about accepting a free gift because I want you to be successful. And he truly means it.
And since you know that phrase about gift-horses, what does it tell you to do ?

But don't accept it blindly as if it was a hammer and start bashing away - learn how to miss your thumb and get the nail to go in straight and learn when not to hammer.

Good luck
Glenn

 

[Charlton]

A question for anyone to contribute really. I would love to hear your view on this...

(note: I am currently getting up to speed with Iraj's various strategies, and plan to start trying one or two of them fairly soon, and fully documenting the process on here of course ... Also, not totally new to this, I have traded ForEx for a bit, hit-and-miss...)

I have a basic knowledge of what CCI is; why Lambert invented it, etc...

What I am in turmoil over is should I spend more time researching CCI and experimenting with it; since it is core to the various strategies put forward by Iraj, in the form of the MACCI...

OR

Just take what Iraj has given us as a gift from the horses mouth (nothing implied Iraj, just a well used and handy cliche to use), and stop messing around and get on with trading it?


I am pretty sure it is not possible to study enough about risk, probability, etc. and this is something I am starting to study properly since catching onto Iraj's posts/methods. I'm curious about the techniques for trading themselves, particularly the strategies Iraj has shown us, and if just a basic knowledge of these are really all that is required, together with experience... or do I need to go deeper...


Cheers,

Magnus

p.s. A BIG thank you to everyone who has contributed to TT forum over the last few years. Great, great stuff here. Shame I have only caught on now, but guess it just wasn't my time...

Magnus

It doesn't need to be an either/or situation. I would say it is necessary to understand how the strategies should be applied, over which timescales and market conditions. There is no reason why you cannot then trade using them and continue to research into them yourself. Indeed the experience of using them is research in itself, leading to observation, questions and further research.

The only cautionary note I would make at this time is that the market is IMO difficult to follow, so caution is needed. However there are some interesting threads going on in TT discussing the market direction and timing that should help.

Charlton

 

[Yuppie]

Nice...

Depends whether you want to drive the car or understand what's under the bonnet.

Hi Glenn,

I'm a man for analogies. Excellent! I'm extending what you say to, say, a racing-car driver. As long as the car is set up properly (for him) and he knows the track(s), his main priority is to practice. Learn about how the car reacts (read: MACCI turns) in various conditions (read: [non]trending days). There are other anologies here, but I think I'm getting it...

This ties in with what Charlton was saying...

From what you say Charlton, after a while, with experience of strategies/indicators (referring to MACCI just now), this will give rise to questions and observations about them - in a similar way to that of a racing-car driver getting to know more and more about how he likes his car set up. He needs to know a certain amount about tyres/gearing/suspension/etc to be able to help himself guide his team to have the car set up at its optimum for him. He would, as I see it, not need to know about, for example, the technology involved in manufacturing tyres. Okay, think I may have gone into this too deeply perhaps...

Well, from the audio with Frank (January I believe), he stated that he just jumped straight into it - learning the strategies. Now I'm not sure if he jumped straight in, ignoring the theory behind (MA)CCI, or if he studied (or already knew) CCI in detail...?... Would be most interested to know this.

From what you (Glenn and Charlton) have said so far, it's seems that get my feet wet initially with the strategies is the first step. Next focus on what I am learning/observing there. After this, questions and further observations may arise... This is making sense to me anyway...


One more point though... I remember reading quite recently (think it may have been Steenbarger's TraderFeed Blog) about his talk with a floor-trader once, many years ago. This very successful floor trader traded T-Bonds day-in day-out. Steenbarger asked him about interests rates affecting... ... (something or other). The traders answer was, "What's an interest rate?". Steenbarger was dumbfounded... :|


Thank you very much Glenn and Charlton,

Magnus

 

[Yuppie]

Why?...

The only cautionary note I would make at this time is that the market is IMO difficult to follow, so caution is needed. However there are some interesting threads going on in TT discussing the market direction and timing that should help.

Charlton,

Is this from a swing perspective, or intraday perspective - or both?

Why is the market hard to trade just now, or am I naive and this the $1m question?


Magnus

 

[wheezergeezer]

yuppie,do you need to know what the components of a pc are to be able to use a pc , or just know how to operate the computer and software to get the job done?, Grey1's method is just one way of trading, a lot of us here use it because we belive it works, there are other methods of course which other traders use, it takes time to learn Grey1's method, often by making mistakes, were all falable humans, some of us are dumber than others! , its not a get rich quick scheme,read previous posts, learn,ask questions, get the software........good luck

 

[Charlton]

Charlton,

Is this from a swing perspective, or intraday perspective - or both?

Why is the market hard to trade just now, or am I naive and this the $1m question?


Magnus

Magnus

I would say both. Why ? - Uncertainty.

From a swing perspective it has been difficulty trying to identify the direction of the market and to identify timing of this. You can see from recent discussions between Grey1 and Firewalker that Grey1 has identified the reasons for his bullish view now, but many others including FW are at odds with this.

Grey1 spoke of the problems of judging market direction at the start of April and I quote him below:

Grey1 - 1st April - BELFLAN's swing thread
"lesson 1 . Donot even think you can judge the market direction by looking at price action on 1 min chart. You cannot do that , Newbies do .
Lesson 2 it is not always easy to find the markek direction soon enough to capitalise on the move

Lesson 3 if you are just guessing then you are gambling . It might pays off and it might not.

I TOO often have difficulty for very long time to gauge the market direction ,,, SO we are all in the same boat . ( this some times is due to huge NEWS around the market or too many contradicting analysis thrown at traders on CNBC or other medias"

If you accept Grey1s analysis of market direction, then it is a matter of waiting for the correct entry signals for a long portfolio and defining the constituents of your portfolio using the techniques he has taught.

So the question I pose back to you is - is it hard for you to perceive market direction at present. Is it clear to you whether we should be long or short the market ?

On an intraday basis I think uncertainty has resulted in a lack of symmetry in the MACCI cycle. For me it hasn't exhibited a "pure sine-wave" pattern which makes it difficult to trade. I have observed that it exits the overbought/oversold areas and often turns back shortly, without completing a well defined cycle. In addition the 5 and 10 min MACCI plots do not correlate nicely. The non-technical nature of the market therefore heightens the risk, limits the chances of good entries/exits for intraday trading and should require smaller position sizes. It's still possible to use the strategies, but just more difficult.

Charlton

 

[rajibde]

Hi Magnus,

The quality and quantity of subjects in this forum is quite a lot and it might be a bit daunting on day one -so if I had to start from day 1-I would start looking into discussions on

a) 'trying to find and decide the market direction' for the medium term

b) RISK management

c) entry & management for each of the the SWING trades (intraday-a very successful technique in the forum but I would not bother if this is my first year in trading-it is a thriller but unless one has a very good grasp of point a), B) & c) the risk of losing money in intraday is quite high).

Just to add something- a very defensive approach towards my money seems to make the money grow i.e I find, if I can take care of my banked money the profit takes care of itself naturally.....something which I am trying to make a habit (being defensive about my capital)

Raj

 

[Yuppie]

wheezergeezer...

yuppie,do you need to know what the components of a pc are to be able to use a pc , or just know how to operate the computer and software to get the job done?, Grey1's method is just one way of trading, a lot of us here use it because we belive it works, there are other methods of course which other traders use, it takes time to learn Grey1's method, often by making mistakes, were all falable humans, some of us are dumber than others! , its not a get rich quick scheme,read previous posts, learn,ask questions, get the software........good luck

Good analogy wheezergeezer, thank you...

I'm starting to see what I should be aiming for initially... I am finding the shear number, and scattering, of posts/threads/topics a bit overwhelming just now...


Magnus

 

[Yuppie]

Charlton...

So the question I pose back to you is - is it hard for you to perceive market direction at present. Is it clear to you whether we should be long or short the market ?

I'm assuming this is not rhetorical, so...

This is where I am getting a wee bit confused. Iraj's methods are almost able to be made automated - indeed, I believe he has some automated strategies working for him. This deciding which way the market is heading seems so discretionary and fuzzy for such clear-cut strategies. I think maybe I am missing something(s) here...

I admit at this point that although I have now read every thread in TT, I have not gone over them in detail, so may only have some of the concepts half-baked. Also, I have not actually traded any of Iraj's strategies yet, and so maybe am not justified in what I am saying/asking at the present.

I am most, most grateful to everyone who has chimed in so far. A great crowd here, it really is...


Magnus

 

[belflan]

Good analogy wheezergeezer, thank you...

I'm starting to see what I should be aiming for initially... I am finding the shear number, and scattering, of posts/threads/topics a bit overwhelming just now...


Magnus

I also felt this way at the start, i have found the best way (for me anyway) to tackle the number of thread etc, is to pick some of Greys most up to date strats/threads and try and put them into action for yourself. IMHO its probably best to leave the some of the more complex stuff until you have a good basic framework in place...that's what I'm trying to do anyway, but we're all different i guess.. good luck ..

belflan

 

[Yuppie]

Raj...

Hi Magnus,

The quality and quantity of subjects in this forum is quite a lot and it might be a bit daunting on day one -so if I had to start from day 1-I would start looking into discussions on

a) 'trying to find and decide the market direction' for the medium term

This ties in with what Charlton was talking about... Hmmm, going to go over where is market heading? thread again...

b) money management

Yes, this is definately the undercurrent of all the strategies here...

c) entry & management for each of the the SWING trades (intraday-a very successful technique in the forum but I would not bother if this is my first year in trading-it is a thriller but unless one has a very good grasp of point a), B) & c) the risk of losing money in intraday is quite high).

I find belflan's thread(s) very interesting. I think I still have the [relative] newbie bug of wanting to make profitable trades every day. Iraj does make it seem that this is quite possible though...

Just to add something- a very defensive approach towards my money seems to make the money grow i.e I find, if I can take care of my banked money the profit takes care of itself naturally.....something which I am trying to make a habit (being defensive about my capital)

Right, I'm not sure I am getting you fully here... Are you saying that any profitable trades you makes, you make sure that money is banked?... and you focus on not letting the losing trades cut into your capital?...


Thank you for your guidance Raj, really appreciated,

Magnus

 

[Yuppie]

belflan...

I also felt this way at the start, i have found the best way (for me anyway) to tackle the number of thread etc, is to pick some of Greys most up to date strats/threads and try and put them into action for yourself. IMHO its probably best to leave the some of the more complex stuff until you have a good basic framework in place...that's what I'm trying to do anyway, but we're all different i guess.. good luck ..

belflan

Cheers belflan...

This is the theme I am starting to think along. I feel the wonderful crowd here in TT are starting to point me in the right direction.

Great threads you're running btw


Magnus

 

[rajibde]

Right, I'm not sure I am getting you fully here... Are you saying that any profitable trades you makes, you make sure that money is banked?... and you focus on not letting the losing trades cut into your capital?...


Thank you for your guidance Raj, really appreciated,

Magnus

It is a mental adaptation (& subject to the tf you are trading in i.e. intraday/swing-few days or long term) to accept the signals when a trade appears to go wrong and cut losses as opposed to hoping that the loss will eventually turn into a win.
I feel this is very important for all timeframes and once you know that you have mastered this for the swing trades, you can then try the intraday technique. Intraday decisions are almost like a digital circuit -acting between 0 & 1 -no scope of any 'indecisive periods'.

Just to add -you'll find a good discussion started by G1 in TT on the statement 'to let the profits run'. During the intraday conference he has also mentioned about placing the stop at entry price + 2 cents and then manage the trade with a view to let the profits run.....

 

[Tileman]

It is a mental adaptation (& subject to the tf you are trading in i.e. intraday/swing-few days or long term) to accept the signals when a trade appears to go wrong and cut losses as opposed to hoping that the loss will eventually turn into a win.
.....

Rajibde,

On an intraday basis what are the signals you accept when a trade appears wrong ?

Regards
Graham

 

[rajibde]

Rajibde,

On an intraday basis what are the signals you accept when a trade appears wrong ?

Regards
Graham

Graham,

One of the easiest one to detect but hard to accept (in my case) is a capitulation/euphoria in my trade direction but there are a few other obvious ones.

Raj

 

[Yuppie]

Raj...

Graham,

One of the easiest one to detect but hard to accept (in my case) is a capitulation/euphoria in my trade direction but there are a few other obvious ones.

Raj

Raj,

Do you mean your capitulation/europhoria in the trade working out? i.e. capitulation in terms of your reluctance to take the trade off (in loss) when it goes against you?... and euphoria in terms of your reluctance to take the trade off (in profit) when it works out?...


Thanks,

Magnus

 

[rajibde]

Raj,

Do you mean your capitulation/europhoria in the trade working out? i.e. capitulation in terms of your reluctance to take the trade off (in loss) when it goes against you?... and euphoria in terms of your reluctance to take the trade off (in profit) when it works out?...


Thanks,

Magnus

Magnus

Actually ir-respective of the fact whether in profit or loss- let me explain- if I have a short position open and suddenly the stock capitulates down-now at this point there is a very good chance that the intraday trend might reverse for the stock and consequently a good time to get out of the trade-as this condition is in direct contradiction of the intraday entry rules.

Raj

 

[Yuppie]

Magnus

Actually ir-respective of the fact whether in profit or loss- let me explain- if I have a short position open and suddenly the stock capitulates down-now at this point there is a very good chance that the intraday trend might reverse for the stock and consequently a good time to get out of the trade-as this condition is in direct contradiction of the intraday entry rules.

Raj

Ah, I think I'm getting you...

After the price has dropped, the probability of it continuing down are less than it reversing back up... at this point, if one was in a short trade or not, they may be looking out for a possible long opportunity... therefor, if it's a place to look for a long, it's a place to exit a short...


Magnus