Helenqu's Blog

Helenqu

Established member
Messages
841
Likes
3
A Funny Week

Had a few things against my trading this week. Kids at home Monday, Updata conference Tuesday, youngest son in hospital Wednesday and at home convalescing Thursday. Only managed about 5 hours screen time all week. Maybe just as well as it was PMT week!
Anyway, 9 trades. 6 winners, 3 losers. Average win 5.16, Average loss 4.33. I'm now up 5% on my account since I started trading. Which is OK for someone who is very much a part-timer I think. This time yesterday I was 6.6% up though. Had a really bad day today which did damage with two losing trades. But you have to accept losing days sometimes and I'm not going to bleat about it.
 
System Expectancy

Since I've now got a stable(ish) system for the STOXX I've worked out the expectancy over the 34 trades since I've been "settled" with it.(From Van Tharp pages 149-159).

It's 0.51 Euros per Euro risked so I think it's OK :) I know I need more data really but it's an indication anyway.
 
3rd November, 2002

Just occurred to me that it might also be useful to show the raw data on my "system" for those that haven't read Van Tharp and don't know what I mean by expectancy.


Winning trades

Points Number
1 4
2 6
3 1
4 2
5 4
6 1
7 2
8 2
9 1
12 1

24 winning trades out of 33 = 72.7%. Average win 4.33 points.


Losing trades (includes scratch as these lose commission)

Points Number
0 1
1 1
3 2
4 3
7 1
8 1

Losers 27.3%. Average loss 3.77 points.

After commission, average gain is E17.21 per trade.

What I need to work on now is stopping the big losses eg the 7 and 8 points and trying to up the winners a point or so. The 7 and 8 both occurred when I disobeyed my own rules and didn't put a trailing stop in. Maximum loss for both those would have been 5 as they were both +2 in profit at one point.
 
8th November, 2003

It hasn't been a good week for me I'm down -10 on the week with 16 trades. Completely the opposite pattern of my previous 4 weeks trading, 5 winners (average win 4.6, that's about usual), one flat and 10 losers (average loss 3, inc 0 trade). I suspect that what is going wrong is that having looked at my system last week and decided it was working fine I've relaxed a bit too much with it. Good that my average loss is less but I suspect/know that it was bought at the price of more losing trades. I have caught myself trading against my system 5 times this week. I'm also not being prepared enough to take the pivot trades which 9/10 work so well.

10 hours trading time this week.

I feel mildly irritated rather than madly upset. Hopefully I can get a couple of 9-3 days in next week, with my new monitor :)
 
Week ending 15th Nov

Another poor week. Only managed eight trades in 12 hours of screen time.

5 wins, 2 losers, one flat.

Average win 1.6, average loss 6.5 which means that I'm down -5 on the week less commission.


Why so bad? Well trading conditions haven't been brilliant this week but that really shouldn't affect the very short term style I have. I've had technical problems this week, a new monitor, hospital appointments for kids etc. On Thursday I felt really on song for three trades, really on top of it and then blew it with a bad trade for -8, just pure carelessness trading against my own system. My account is still up £90 from where I started and I have learnt a lot. Somewhat paradoxically I do have much more confidence in my ability now, I can see the trades clearer. But I'm still not trading then when I see them a lot of the time, I delay getting in, or get in too late. It's a confidence issue.


Looking at the weeks trading results with this system to date they are:

Week 1 +13
Week 2 +36
Week 3 +21
Week 4 -10
Week 5 -5

Hope I can turn it around next week :)

I may well do a paper exercise for 20 trades when I can't trade (kids at home) taking every trade that the system brings up, may help my confidence a bit.
 
Revision to Trading Protocol

After 6 weeks it was time to check I was still doing what I said I was :)

A few revisions.

Trading Protocol

Trading one contract of near month Eurostox 50 at a time.

Postions will normally be held for less than one hour.


Method.
1) Direction of medium-term trend established though the 10-minute chart.
2) Trades will only be entered in the direction of the 10-min trend.
3) Chart set up will be 1 minute, with EMAs, 30 low, 10 close and 30 high and 14 CCI.
4) Long if 10ema above 30 high. Short if 10ema below 30 low.
5) Entries will be made on pullback to trendline in existing trends, this will be confirmed through the use of CCI on the one minute chart.
6) Entries will also be made on support/resistance/pivot points.
7) Patterns such as triangles, double bottoms and tops and head and shoulders will be traded on confirmation of breakout, at pullback. Patterns will be traded both in the price and on CCI.
8) Candlestick patterns on the 10-minute chart will also be traded, this chart will have stochastics, bollinger bands and pivot points marked on it.
9) A daily chart will also be open.
10) On the 1 min chart gaps between the Mas of more than 5 will be heeded as warning signs, on very large gaps, +15 and above reverse postions may be taken on their presence, provided this is confirmed by CCI.
11) Low risk entries are where Mas have closed up after trend, CCI moves above 0 and actual price is above 10 close EMA.
* I am currently evaluating the use of a 3 min chart with the same settings as the 1 min chart to be used for monitoring/watching. This would be used to set up entries then to be traded from the 1 min chart.

Capital protection

Stops will be placed at 1% of the total account value (ie risk no more than 1% on any one trade). In reality the system I am trading should allow stops to be set closer than this but this is the maximum drawdown on any one trade. Trailing Stops (6 or 7) will be set as soon as position is opened.

On the basis of the previous weeks closing acccount balance I will not trade with real money during any one week should my losses amount to more than 2% of my weeks opening balance. The reason is that when I am trading badly I need a rule to take myself out of the market for a while.

In an emergency, if a position is open and not covered with a stop I will open a hedging bet on the FTSE via D4F. Should power be off and I am not able to use the on-line service I can use the mobile phone to open the bet.



Record Keeping

A simple A4 sheet with the following layout:

Date
Long/Short
Price
Duration
Rationale for opening
Rationale for closing
Points won/lost
Grade on the following criteria:

1 - Entry and Exit excuted as plannned, followed protocol.
2 - Poor entry/exit, followed protocol
3 - Poor entry and exit, ignored protocol.


Exiting trades.

1) When stop is violated
2) Via trailing stop/CCI or Price trendline break.
3) By discretion – trade “feels” wrong, price stalling.
 
Temporary Halt

Time to take a pause. This has been another losing week,( down 10 points and 40E commission) I'm back flat in my account at £5K and I need to get a handle on what is going wrong.

10 trades this week, 3 at break even, 3 wins and 4 losses. Average gain 2 points. Average loss 4 points.

I've been noting down all the things that have been going wrong.

Twice I left stops open after a trade and ended up having a trade I would never have initiated.
I missed lots of trades, through inattention and not having the bottle to take them.
Using the CCI I was caught out a couple of times when I thought it had penetrated the 0 line and it was in fact bouncing.
On three occasions I traded against the 10 min trend and consequently against my system.
I hesitated to take trend breaks on the CCI even when all three time frames agreed.


I think I need a week out to regain my equilibrium and regain faith in a system that I already know works, I just need the discipline to trade it.

So next Monday I'll start a week of paper trading the system, just to get my feel for it back.

I am disappointed in myself, I've gone from 1% up, to 2% down, to 3% up and back down to flat since the 7th October. I can read what the chart is doing but something, maybe the fear of losing, is getting in the way. I have to find a way to break this down. I said when I started this that my initial aim was capital protection, maybe I have internalised that too much.

Any views/comments very welcome.
 
Review of past three days

OK, amidst the ironing, shopping, library visits etc. I've found an hour to go back though the last three days and all the buys/sells the system (my original system, 1 min and 10 min charts only) generated.

Results:

48 trades, 12 losses/flats. 36 wins. Average loss 4 points, average win 6.6 points.

It's nothing new, I know it works, maybe this will help me believe it again.

I will trade for real on Monday
 
Revisions to Protocol

The new set up for my charts is here:

http://www.helenqu.co.uk/TBS/setupnov.gif

The method part of the protocol now looks like this :

Method.

1) Direction of medium-term trend established though the 10-minute chart. This will be done with CCI and on the price chart via trendlines.
2) Trades will only be entered in the direction of the 10-min trend.
3) Charts set up and always open will be 1 minute and 10 minute candlestick, both with 14 period CCI.
4) Entries will be made on pullback to trendline in existing trends, this will be confirmed through the use of CCI on the one minute chart.
5) Entries will also be made on support/resistance/pivot points.
6) Patterns such as triangles, double bottoms and tops and head and shoulders will be traded on confirmation of breakout, at pullback. Patterns will be traded both in the price and on CCI.
7) Candlestick patterns on the 10-minute chart will also be traded, this chart will have pivot points marked on it.
8) A daily chart will also be open but not displayed for quick reference.

I think the simplicity of this will actually help me pull the trigger a bit better.
 
A Positive Week

OK not very positive but a bit :)

Only managed to spend six hours of screen time this week. Made four trades +1, +1 +3 and 0. Not going to set the world on fire like that but I end the week positive which is something I badly needed after three consecutive losing weeks. My confidence is still at a very low ebb. The encouraging part is that all four entries were good ones. All of the four trades would have gone much further in my favour had I not jumped ship too soon through anxiety/fear. The duration of the trades is on average 2 mins, much too short, when I was trading well previously the duration was about 4 mins per trade.

I think I'm so so close to being consistently profitable. If I can only find a way to help myself relax more when trades are open.
 
Slow and steady

Been a week with only four trades. Still that isn't a bad thing, all helps to take things steadily and regain my confidence. Had seven hours of screen time and made four trades. Three winners and one loser. Winners +3, +3 and +5, loser -3. The two +3s should have been 6/8 had I had the courage to hold on to them. I'm trading my system well, actually made two trades that I would classify as perfect in terms of entry and exit, that doesn't happen often. I'm also being more patient and not taking half-chances just because I want to make trades in the time available. Thanks Options for you comment last week, it did make a difference to me :)
 
A Slow Week

Hi all,

With the run up to Christmas, Carol Concerts and PhD supervision this week my trading time has been very limited. Managed about 5 hours screen time that's all. Made three trades, none of which I felt completely happy with.

The first for +2 I closed too early after 4mins just because I got spooked at how slow it was, could have closed about three minutes after that for +12 :(

The second was OK but I was a bit slow on the entry which cost me a couple of points, it was a slow trade though, in it for 5 mins closed for +3.

The third I am really irritated about. I'd just opened it when the door bell rang, I dealt with that quickly, then the phone went and it was my Mother in Law. I could see the trade stalling as it reached +3 and that's the time when I should/would have closed it normally but as I was on the phone I watched it reverse up to it's stop just above the pivot for -6. In the trade 8 mins.

So all in all my grand total for the week is -1 :( Should have been +7/8.
 
90 trades in

Hi all,

With all the Christmas stuff, hospital appointments for the kids and PhD in full flow I only found time for three trades this week. +3, +1 (which should have been +6 to +12) and -4. In all leaving me flat.

I've been keeping count of the number of trades I have done and Friday (the -4) was my 90th futures trade. Am I making money? Well after commissions and data feeds I'm about £50 up in total so yes, marginally. The big hurdle for me at the moment is confidence and allowing myself to let a trade run. I know that the real root of this is not wanting to lose money. While that's great for capital conservation and I could probably piddle along like this forever, it's not good for profits, so I need a New Years resolution that has something do with having more faith in my system. Someone said to me this week that it takes time to build up faith in a system and I think that is true.

I'll be taking a break from real trading from now until the kids go back to school on the 8th January BUT I will be working on the Tsim whenever I can (in-laws permitting)and taking every signal my system gives me for practice. Maybe this will help my confidence a bit.

Have a Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year everyone.
 
The difference between real and simulated trading

Just a very brief note tonight as I'm not trading for real as the kids are still at home on holiday but I just want to highlight an issue that in all honesty I never thought would be one for me. Because I think (or should that be thought?) that I am very level headed and rational.

Today,in just six trades,with about 4 hours of interrupted screen time (I was looking after the kids), just following my system I made +29 points on the STOXX. It was just as trading should be. Like it is in the textbooks. Except of course it was on a simulator. Live prices but not real money.

I wish I could divorce money from trading in my mind. I wish I could get rid of the desire to to be right, to make winning trades rather than trade moves to their natural conclusions as I should.

Maybe the awareness that this is an issue for me is a start? I do hope so :)

If anyone out there has been though this stage and can offer any help on how to overcome it I'd be all ears.
 
New Year......

...............and a new leaf. Unfortunately my determination to hold onto trades longer and not wimp out so fast didn't get much chance for exercise this week. Only managed two trades one for +1 and one for -3, so I end the week at a loss.
Both trades though I would rate pretty well in terms of execution. I actually held one trade for 9 mins and one for 5 so that is much better in terms of my ability to sweat it out.

Why only two trades? Well kids at home until Weds, my big monitor went Phut at the weekend and I had a poor screen so trading wasn't easy, market was pretty flat on Weds, Thursday I had to go into Uni and had last minute Traders Day stuff to sort out and on Friday I found out I had to do a presentation for Saturday. So things consipired against me.

I hate this to sound like a litany of excuses every week but my life is busy. Should be better after the 20th Jan though when I am due to hand in a draft of my revised PhD. After that should get a few days to devote to trading 9-3 can't wait :)
 
First 4 full time days

Hi all,

Well I end the week 40 euros down, but am I discourgaged?

Nope :)

I've been slow to trade, which is the pace I feel happy with at the moment. I've had some 17 hours of dedicated trading time.

Made 7 trades,

-4, -6, +3, -3, -5, +8 and +3

The two big losers, the -6 and and the -5 were plain and simple errors. I was trading when the news came out on both occasions. Just stupid. So my solution to avoid this now is to have a real (not virtual) alarm clock on my desk. I hope a physical presence will remind me better. I wouldn't mind if I didn't do the homework on figs times every night but it's so easy to get seduced by the chart and forget other things. It's also amazing how many good trades come at news time :)

The -3 was a basic execution error. I went long instead of short. Had I entered the right way it would have been a winning trade.


It's been PMT week this week and I know from experience that I always trade badly this week, much more likely to make basic errors and press the wrong buttons.

The +8 I was really pleased with. I ran the trade to the end of it's TA premise, which is something I am poor at. I tend to exit emotionally, that HAS to stop.


I feel I've learnt a lot this week. My account is still above the level I started out at and I've now made some 103 futures trades under my belt since I started.

I've started (on Austin-Clones suggestion)reading Trading the Zone by Mark Douglas and I'm hoping it will help me with some of the emotional difficulties I have when trading for real. I can sim trade for Britain :)


Onwards and upwards.


Helen
 
Where I'm up to.....

Actually I've been a bit in the doldrums since the journals have been off line. I had a losing week at the beginning of February (down 80 euros) and decided to do some testing using Tsim. The results are all on the eurostoxx board so I won't write them down here. But I used my system on Eurostoxx and and on the FTSE to good effect.

I had planned to be fully back in action by now but a big problem with my PhD work means that I am still slogging away on that and likely to be so until the end of the year. In addition to that I have the book underway and I've had half term with the kids at home:)

Anyway in order to attempt to keep my trading up to scratch I'm going to be back on the 2 hours trading a day in the morning from 9-11 routine as from now on. I just hope that I can make the progress on the PhD and the book good enough in the time between 11 and 2-55 so that I can keep trading.
 
Quick Update

Well the PhD is back underway and the book is hopefully coming to a conclusion too. I have been quite privileged to have access to lots of real time feeds that I would otherwise have not bothered to look at. My conclusion actually was that for me at the moment (with my two hours a day) all I need is the IB feed and Sierra Charts. So Mytrack goes at the end of the month, that will save me a bit of money that can go into my trading account. I did however really like e-Signal and when I am properly full time I may well sign up with them.


Trading wise all I managed this week was one real trade for +1. So I end the week +6 euros up :) I'm tending to switch between live and sim modes on Tsim depending on how confident I feel about the trade. It's a way of still being involved and learning but making sure I take only the best opportunities for real. It stops boredom trading too.

I think I have to accept that while I still have things like the book and PhD needing attention my trading needs to be scaled back to fit. I want so much to be full time but I can't be yet.
 
War Week

Seems to have been a long week. The first two days I spent getting ready for a meeting re the PhD which was awful. Weds I spent trying to recover from the meeting and Thursday and Friday although I was able to trade and watch the markets for quite a few hours the constant flow of news and unpredictability meant I only felt happy to make one trade.

I also still have feeling that it is somewhat distasteful to be playing the market "game" when people are dying and being injured. I've never watched the markets during a war before and I hope I never have to again.

I have to make a final decision this week whether or not to carry on with the PhD. I have a meeting with my supervisor on Friday. If I decide not to continue then my trading will get a degree of attention I have never been able to give it before and part of me is really eager for that. On the other hand I am reluctant to throw away five years work on the PhD.


Decisions, decisions.
 
Helen...I'd say get your PhD done. It's something you will only do once (hopefully). The market will still be there for you when you get back to trading fully, and will perhaps have returned to some sense of normality.
 
Top