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damianoakley
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Hi Gug,
Agree with you on the Energy Stocks.
Not trading anything in that sector at the moment.
Damian
Agree with you on the Energy Stocks.
Not trading anything in that sector at the moment.
Damian
Have we missed something ?
Guga - just realised that 2007 estimates for Conoco averages out at $9.42 which equals around 6.5x at $61. But even using the lowest estimate of $6.67 we get ~ 9.15x.
That means when shares hit $55 maybe it was a bit too cheap.
If you were an oil major with the price at ~$80 the highest ever..... would you wait until price fell to $57 or even $40 to sell forward production ??
Just maybe earnings will be far stronger than people realise ?? Add to that potential of M&A and .....................
Hook Shot
gugaplex said:I'd stay clear of energy stocks. May rebound a bit, but not worth the down-side risk....
Guga - just realised that 2007 estimates for Conoco averages out at $9.42 which equals around 6.5x at $61. But even using the lowest estimate of $6.67 we get ~ 9.15x.
That means when shares hit $55 maybe it was a bit too cheap.
If you were an oil major with the price at ~$80 the highest ever..... would you wait until price fell to $57 or even $40 to sell forward production ??
Just maybe earnings will be far stronger than people realise ?? Add to that potential of M&A and .....................
Hook Shot
Bought TRI today at $39.06 for several important reasons. The first is because the stock has attractive valuations. TRI trades at 1.09 x's Book Value, has a PEG ratio of 1.06, and forward P/E ratio of 11.96.
Triad will benefit nicely from the massive demand from Baby-Boomers that will start to play itself out in the next few years. Once this demand starts picking up, it will last for decades. The older they get, the more they will be dependent on hospitals like Triad. TRI has nice exposure to the southern states, which will be a hot spot for Baby-Boomers as many relocate after retirement.
Another hospital chain similar to Triad is HCA. Private equity groups have teamed up for a leveraged buyout of HCA recently, sending the shares up 25% from the date of the announcement. With HCA trading at 4.27 x's Book Value and Triad a mere 1.09, it seems like the private equity groups have another nice value in TRI.
The company recently reported that they will have a shortfall in earnings for the quarter because of unpaid debts from certain "customers". I think this news is by far already factored in to the price.
Triad will benefit nicely from the massive demand from Baby-Boomers that will start to play itself out in the next few years. Once this demand starts picking up, it will last for decades. The older they get, the more they will be dependent on hospitals like Triad. TRI has nice exposure to the southern states, which will be a hot spot for Baby-Boomers as many relocate after retirement.
Another hospital chain similar to Triad is HCA. Private equity groups have teamed up for a leveraged buyout of HCA recently, sending the shares up 25% from the date of the announcement. With HCA trading at 4.27 x's Book Value and Triad a mere 1.09, it seems like the private equity groups have another nice value in TRI.
The company recently reported that they will have a shortfall in earnings for the quarter because of unpaid debts from certain "customers". I think this news is by far already factored in to the price.
Today I purchased shares of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH) because the stock is incredibly cheap.
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio).
Here are the numbers for IMH:
Price to Book = 0.61
PEG Ratio = 0.68
P/E Ratio = 7
Dividend Yield = 10.3% (but may lower dividend)
Profit Margin = 64%
Return on Equity = 23%
I think the real estate market will rebound from the doom and gloom scenario that is sweeping the markets. Even if things do not improve significantly, IMH is being treated by Wall Street as if they are going out of business (due to the extremely low Price/Book Ratio).
gugaplex said:I will start off this thread with one of my recent buys. The stock is National Dentex Corp (NADX). I bought a week ago at $18.80. The stock trades a mere 3,000 shares daily, so it is not a day-trading candidate. The fundamentals for the stock are strong (dental industry will benefit from Baby-Boomers), the valuations are LOW (trades at 1.3 x's Book Value and has a 0.96 PEG ratio), and the stock is extremely over-sold. I believe NADX is fairly valued in the mid $20's, and should reach this level within a year or less.
Please let me know what you think, and some of your "Hot Buys"....
I sold National Dentex (NADX) today at $21.97 because the stock has risen 17% since my purchase three weeks ago. If I have a gain of over 15% in a few weeks, I will likey sell it (unless I have a much higher longer term price target). I still think the stock has room to move higher to mid $20's or above, but I just saw greener pastures considering I already logged a decent three week gain.
damianoakley
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Hi guga,
Seems like your trades have done well recently.
I have to say I was dubious of your "bottom fishing" method at first, but your judgement of picking recovery stocks seems fairly accurate.
Good Luck !
Damian
Seems like your trades have done well recently.
I have to say I was dubious of your "bottom fishing" method at first, but your judgement of picking recovery stocks seems fairly accurate.
Good Luck !
Damian
Thanks Damian,
Hopefully these "trades" will continue to do well relative to the markets. I own 7 stocks in my portfolio now, and six have become long-term holdings (3-4 years).
They are BRCM, TRI, PWAV, TOA, IMH, LAKE, and DRCT....
Let me know what you think!
Hopefully these "trades" will continue to do well relative to the markets. I own 7 stocks in my portfolio now, and six have become long-term holdings (3-4 years).
They are BRCM, TRI, PWAV, TOA, IMH, LAKE, and DRCT....
Let me know what you think!
damianoakley
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Hi Gug,
It's difficult to comment on your stocks because our trading methods differ so much!
Out of your list above, TOA seems to be the strongest company with excellent recent earnings performance and strong recent buying activity. The only obstacle to this in the short term could be that on the chart it has just hit an upper resistance trendline. If it can break through this, then I think this could be a good recovery play.
Thanks
Damian
It's difficult to comment on your stocks because our trading methods differ so much!
Out of your list above, TOA seems to be the strongest company with excellent recent earnings performance and strong recent buying activity. The only obstacle to this in the short term could be that on the chart it has just hit an upper resistance trendline. If it can break through this, then I think this could be a good recovery play.
Thanks
Damian
My trading/investing methods seem to differ a bit because I have recently shook up my portfolio. Of the above mentioned stocks, I plan to trim some of my holdings in BRCM this coming April (and keep rest for Long-Term), and sell DRCT if/when it hits $15. As for my other holdings, barring any unforeseen developments I will hold them for the long-term (3-4 years)...
Bought CRC Today @ $9.64
I bought Chromcraft Revington (CRC) because of several reasons:
1) The stock trades at 0.80 x’s Book Value.
2) CRC sports a nifty PEG Ratio of only 0.96.
3) The 5-year chart shows extreme pessimism in the stock (which USUALLY suggests a turnaround).
4) The financial statements are pretty clean. Take a look at their Balance-Sheet, you will see that they have no “Intangible Assets” or “Good-Will”. Taking a gander at the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows gives the investor a clear picture of the company’s financial status. Unfortunately, it is difficult to say this for most publicly-traded companies.
CRC is profitable, and will likely increase margins as commodity prices decline. The bursting of the commodity bubble will help CRC on both the top-line and the bottom. Consumers will have more disposable income, and the fixed and variable costs will decrease for the company.
I bought Chromcraft Revington (CRC) because of several reasons:
1) The stock trades at 0.80 x’s Book Value.
2) CRC sports a nifty PEG Ratio of only 0.96.
3) The 5-year chart shows extreme pessimism in the stock (which USUALLY suggests a turnaround).
4) The financial statements are pretty clean. Take a look at their Balance-Sheet, you will see that they have no “Intangible Assets” or “Good-Will”. Taking a gander at the Income Statement and Statement of Cash Flows gives the investor a clear picture of the company’s financial status. Unfortunately, it is difficult to say this for most publicly-traded companies.
CRC is profitable, and will likely increase margins as commodity prices decline. The bursting of the commodity bubble will help CRC on both the top-line and the bottom. Consumers will have more disposable income, and the fixed and variable costs will decrease for the company.
Bought Corning (GLW) Today @ $20.42
After selling Corning (GLW) a few weeks ago for $25.46, I decided that the stock once again looks attractive. I mentioned then and I will reiterate today, Corning has a bright future due to expected growth from LCD TV's and broad-band technology. Because we are entering the historically positve period for the markets (November-April), I decided to increase the risk in my portfolio a tad. Roughly 20% of the "risk" has come out of GLW since I sold a couple weeks ago.
The markets may sputter a bit from here, but I expect the dips to be bought for the remainder of the year and into next. GLW may continue to struggle a bit as well, but I am not going to try and time the near-term bottom.
After selling Corning (GLW) a few weeks ago for $25.46, I decided that the stock once again looks attractive. I mentioned then and I will reiterate today, Corning has a bright future due to expected growth from LCD TV's and broad-band technology. Because we are entering the historically positve period for the markets (November-April), I decided to increase the risk in my portfolio a tad. Roughly 20% of the "risk" has come out of GLW since I sold a couple weeks ago.
The markets may sputter a bit from here, but I expect the dips to be bought for the remainder of the year and into next. GLW may continue to struggle a bit as well, but I am not going to try and time the near-term bottom.
gugaplex said:Nudder "Hot Buy" for ya, buy BRCM on a dip. May trade down to $27 at worst, but has up-side potential to $40 within 6 months.
Good luck....
BRCM at $32.80 (after-hours market). Just the beginning of the big move higher (to $50 eventually). May be a bit volatile over the next few weeks....
Sold CRC Today at $8.40
I took a nice loss of 12% in Chromcraft Revington (CRC). The stock did nothing but decline from when I bought about a month ago. I am sure the stock will rebound now that I have sold, but it seemed like a lost cause. CRC and DRCT were my two short-term plays in my portfolio. Luckily I have an unrealized gain in DRCT of 23% after a few months (I plan to sell around $18). Like everyone else, I hate taking losses. This will help offset some of my taxes this year, but I would rather have bigger gains and simply pay more taxes. This is my way of giving extra money to charity (government).
My portfolio is now comprised as such:
BRCM = 28%
GLW = 14%
TRI = 13%
PWAV = 11%
DRCT = 10%
IMH = 9%
TOA = 8%
LAKE = 7%
Good Luck...
I took a nice loss of 12% in Chromcraft Revington (CRC). The stock did nothing but decline from when I bought about a month ago. I am sure the stock will rebound now that I have sold, but it seemed like a lost cause. CRC and DRCT were my two short-term plays in my portfolio. Luckily I have an unrealized gain in DRCT of 23% after a few months (I plan to sell around $18). Like everyone else, I hate taking losses. This will help offset some of my taxes this year, but I would rather have bigger gains and simply pay more taxes. This is my way of giving extra money to charity (government).
My portfolio is now comprised as such:
BRCM = 28%
GLW = 14%
TRI = 13%
PWAV = 11%
DRCT = 10%
IMH = 9%
TOA = 8%
LAKE = 7%
Good Luck...
gugaplex said:I will start off this thread with one of my recent buys. The stock is National Dentex Corp (NADX). I bought a week ago at $18.80. The stock trades a mere 3,000 shares daily, so it is not a day-trading candidate. The fundamentals for the stock are strong (dental industry will benefit from Baby-Boomers), the valuations are LOW (trades at 1.3 x's Book Value and has a 0.96 PEG ratio), and the stock is extremely over-sold. I believe NADX is fairly valued in the mid $20's, and should reach this level within a year or less.
Please let me know what you think, and some of your "Hot Buys"....
Today I bought back National Dentex (NADX) at $19.03. A couple months ago I bought the stock for $18.80 and sold a few weeks later at $21.97. The stock has a strong chance to reach the mid $20's within a few months. NADX has a price/book ratio of 1.29 and a PEG ratio of about 1.00. The stock is thinly traded with only around 7k per day. I suggest buying an amount that makes up less than 10% of your holdings.
Good Luck...
Today I sold all of my holdings in Direct General (DRCT) at $16.02. I believe the stock will continue to perform well over the next 6-12 months, but felt I should take profits due to a quick gain of 27% in 3 months.
I also sold about a third of my holdings in Broadcom (BRCM) for $32.38. My original purchase of these shares was about 18 months ago at $20. This yielded a 62% gain. Broadcom is positioned to do extremely well over the next few years as the wireless and broad-band booms come to fruition.
Due to the recent market run-up, I felt it necessary to trim my holdings in these two stocks to pay off my margin account. Ever so often I see opportunities that warrant using margin in order to maximize returns, but would not recommend buying any stocks I recommend on margin (then you'll be twice as ticked off if they decline).
My Current Holdings:
BRCM = 20%
GLW = 15%
TRI = 14%
NADX = 13%
PWAV = 11%
IMH = 10%
TOA = 9%
LAKE = 8%
I also sold about a third of my holdings in Broadcom (BRCM) for $32.38. My original purchase of these shares was about 18 months ago at $20. This yielded a 62% gain. Broadcom is positioned to do extremely well over the next few years as the wireless and broad-band booms come to fruition.
Due to the recent market run-up, I felt it necessary to trim my holdings in these two stocks to pay off my margin account. Ever so often I see opportunities that warrant using margin in order to maximize returns, but would not recommend buying any stocks I recommend on margin (then you'll be twice as ticked off if they decline).
My Current Holdings:
BRCM = 20%
GLW = 15%
TRI = 14%
NADX = 13%
PWAV = 11%
IMH = 10%
TOA = 9%
LAKE = 8%
Bought Abatix (ABIX) Today @ $5.79
Take a look-see at Abatix (ABIX). The stock has been annihilated over the past year. Why, you ask? Because the company derives most of its business from disaster clean-ups, etc. Last year, Hurricane Katrina created an abnormally large demand for their products. The company recently reported earnings for the quarter ending September 30th of this year (after a "light" hurricane season). Earnings were much weaker than last year's Q3 report, and the stock was hammered. Hopefully the hurricane season of 2007 will be just as light as 2006, but if it isn't-this stock should soar from current levels.
My rationale for buying ABIX:
1) The stock has a Price/Book Ratio of 0.83...
2) The company is in an "economically insensitive" sector, which provides diversification for your portfolio.
3) Much like Lakeland (LAKE), ABIX acts as a hedge against a natural disaster, the "Bird Flu" virus, and a terrorist attack.
The beauty of buying a ABIX at such a discount is that it acts as a hedge and will likely increase in value without any of the previously mentioned occurrences taking place.
Good Luck
Take a look-see at Abatix (ABIX). The stock has been annihilated over the past year. Why, you ask? Because the company derives most of its business from disaster clean-ups, etc. Last year, Hurricane Katrina created an abnormally large demand for their products. The company recently reported earnings for the quarter ending September 30th of this year (after a "light" hurricane season). Earnings were much weaker than last year's Q3 report, and the stock was hammered. Hopefully the hurricane season of 2007 will be just as light as 2006, but if it isn't-this stock should soar from current levels.
My rationale for buying ABIX:
1) The stock has a Price/Book Ratio of 0.83...
2) The company is in an "economically insensitive" sector, which provides diversification for your portfolio.
3) Much like Lakeland (LAKE), ABIX acts as a hedge against a natural disaster, the "Bird Flu" virus, and a terrorist attack.
The beauty of buying a ABIX at such a discount is that it acts as a hedge and will likely increase in value without any of the previously mentioned occurrences taking place.
Good Luck
Hook Shot said:What happened was Phelps blew to 9550 (tipped at 8300) making new daily highs every day since tip. Me thinks I got out too early - but still profitable. Conoco is now getting busy now 6000 (tipped at 5788 ...but you could have got it for 5730 next day...) Go conoco - next 6100 ?
OOOOOOOOOHHHHH !!- I think I hear an ugprade coming Mystery Stock is 2442 can this hot trend really continue ?
HS (hot xxxx)
Yahoo the mystery stock went to $27.80 more to come as shakeup due and investors calling for regime change.
............and Phelps Dodge is being taken out by Freeport at ~$126 vs my call at $83 ( I knew there was something Funny.........going on)
Finally - Conoco hit 64plus today vs my call at $57.88 and with oil trying to rally whose to say we can't see the highs at $72 ? :cheesy:
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