GroundStone Holdings Morning Newsletter

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - Asian Markets Waver Despite Strong U.S. Earnings

Asian Markets Waver Despite Strong U.S. Earnings
Asian markets were trading mixed on Thursday afternoon, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and the Shenzhen Composite trading lower, and most other regional benchmark indexes heading higher, despite strong earnings in the United States on Wednesday that sent Wall Street indexes to one-month highs on Wednesday. The gains on Wall Street were led by the banking sector, where Bank of America gained 7.2 percent and Goldman Sachs surged over 9 percent.

Wednesday’s gains brought the S&P within striking range of its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq crossed this important technical level on Tuesday.

Still, Asian markets were unable to ride the wave of gains, with investors still concerned about China’s continuing economic problems, based both on slow growth and the continuing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. Beijing is trying to reduce the country’s debt and the clout of the central bank, but these efforts have strained the country’s economy.The upcoming Chinese New Year, which historically brings higher levels of unemployment, is also putting the country under additional economic stress. In the past several weeks efforts to staunch the damage have included tax cuts and economic stimulus, but they have thus far had little impact. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow 6.3 percent in 2019.

Currency Movements
The dollar index was modestly higher on Thursday, up 0.08 percent to 96.14 .DXY as of 2:08 p.m. HK/SIN. The greenback gained against the euro and the pound, trading at $1.1385 and $1.287 respectively, but it eased against the yen to trade down 0.15 percent to 108.92.

DXY:

Intraday target: $96.50
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1330
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2608
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $49.70
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3480
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $110
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Crypto Report - Bitcoin and Altcoins Struggling To Hold Uptrend Supports

Bitcoin and Altcoins Struggling To Hold Uptrend Supports

• Bitcoin price declined below USD 3,600 and tested the USD 3,550 support.
• Ethereum is holding the USD 115 support and ripple is consolidating above USD 0.320.
• Augur (REP) rallied more than 50% and LRC registered 30% gains.

Recently, there was a bearish reaction in bitcoin from well above USD 3,650. BTC/USD declined below the USD 3,600 support and tested the key support at USD 3,550. The price must stay above the USD 3,550 support to recover in the near term. If not, there is a risk of a bearish break below USD 3,500 in the coming sessions. Similarly, ethereum price must hold the USD 115 support area, below which sellers could push the price towards USD 100. Ripple price is currently consolidating above USD 0.320, with resistances at USD 0.330 and USD 0.335. The current (UTC 08:20 AM) price action is slightly bearish, but the stated supports
could spark a bullish reaction.

Total market capitalization

Bitcoin price
After testing the USD 3,550 support, bitcoin price started trading in a range. BTC/USD is currently up around 0.5% to USD 3,575, with an immediate resistance at USD 3,600. A successful break above the USD 3,650 level is needed for a decent upward move towards the USD 3,750 and USD 3,800 resistances.
On the other hand, if buyers fail to gain strength, there could be a sharp bearish reaction below USD 3,550, USD 3,500 and USD 3,480 in the near term.

Ethereum price
Ethereum price tested the USD 116 and USD 118 support levels recently and stayed above the USD 115 pivot level. ETH/USD is slowly moving higher, but a break above USD 125 and USD 128 is required to kick start a move towards the USD 140 level.
On the downside, the USD 118 and USD 116 levels are decent supports. However, a break below USD 115 may push the price back in a bearish zone.

Bitcoin cash, eos and ripple price
Bitcoin cash price is currently consolidating above the USD 120 and USD 122 support levels. An initial resistance is at USD 130, above which there are chances of a solid upward move towards the USD 140 and USD 145 levels.
EOS is up around 1% and it is trading near the USD 2.40 level. On the upside, the main resistance is at USD 2.50 followed by USD 2.60.
Ripple price tested the key USD 0.320 support on a few occasions, but there was no bearish break. XRP/USD is slowly rising towards USD 0.325 and USD 0.330, above which the price may gain strength for a test of USD 0.375.

Other altcoins market today
During the past few hours, many small cap altcoins registered solid gains, including REP, LRC, POWR, SNT, STEEM and WAN. Out of these, REP rallied more than 50%, LRC is up close to 30%, and POWR gained around 24%.
Overall, bitcoin is trading in a tight range above the key USD 3,550 and USD 3,540 support levels. The next move in BTC/USD could be either towards USD 3,800 or below USD 3,400 in the coming sessions. Ethereum and ripple may trade sideways before the next major move either bearish or bullish.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Daily Macro View - EM still looks like a better value than Europe

Daily Insights

EM still looks like a better value than Europe. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index and S&P 500 Index are both trading at 5-6% discounts to their 25 year averages, while Europe is trading in line with its average, on a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE) basis. Though the nearly 20% Japan-driven discount for the EAFE relative to the S&P 500 looks attractive, the EM discount to the S&P 500 is larger at 26% and still, based on fundamentals, looks like the better place to be for suitable strategies.

Brexit: Now What? Following the expected defeat of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan in Parliament on Tuesday, and her survival of the subsequent confidence vote, skepticism has built that any deal will be struck by the March 29 deadline. As a result, the odds have increased that the U.K. will stay in the European Union. A second referendum on Brexit is one possible path to that end. Even in a hard Brexit scenario where the U.K. leaves without a deal, the economic damage globally is likely to be manageable. Consider that the U.K. economy has not performed any worse than the broader European economy in recent months.

The shutdown drags on. The U.S. government shutdown has now stretched into Day 27. Past shutdowns have been a non-event for the U.S. economy and stocks, but we’re in uncharted territory now.

Beige book follow-up, Philly Fed Index bounces back. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book, a report about current economic conditions across the 12 Fed Districts, indicated overall economic activity increased across most of the U.S. last month. Reported growth was modest to moderate with the majority of districts indicated that manufacturing expanded, consistent with the Philadelphia Fed survey released this morning. However, the Philadelphia Fed Index bucked the recent trend of weaker manufacturing reports, registering 17.0 vs. 10.0 consensus expectations, and rebounded strongly from December’s 9.1 reading, largely driven by new orders, which hit their highest level in six months. Though it’s only one indicator, the aggregate data suggest the U.S. economy is seeing pockets of moderating growth but remains on firm footing.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - Sterling Lifted on Hope for Better Outcome

Sterling Lifted on Hope for Better Outcome
Sterling remained not far from the recently struck 2-month peak against both the US Dollar and the Euro on investor uncertainty. Yesterday, the Prime Minister managed to eke out favor in yet another no-confidence vote, but analysts say, despite that, there are grave concerns over her ability to oversee a very divided government. They say markets seem to be waiting for some more concrete information that would suggest that the worst case Brexit scenario is not likely to soon occur, however, until this data shows up support for the Pound will continue to be whittled away.

As reported at 11:44 am (GMT) in London, the EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8841 Pence, down 0.08%; the pair has ranged from 0.88317 Pence to 0.88702 Pence. The GBP/USD was trading at $1.2899, up 0.16%; earlier , the pair had hit a peak of $1.2911 while the low was established at $1.2833 for the trading session.

Uncertainty Dominates Brexit Future
Though the Prime Minister had met with party officials, the head of the Labour Party refused to come to the table. Jeremy Corbyn said unless Ms. May took the no-Deal Brexit out of play, he would not negotiate. One currency strategist said that different outlooks are garnering some appeal to investors, which include a softer Brexit and even, at the most extreme, a second referendum on the withdrawal. Most seem to be in favor of a delay for the exit so there is more time to fine-tune the details.

DXY:

Intraday target: $96.50
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1330
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2608
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $49.70
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3480
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $110
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Crypto Report - Bitcoin price is moving higher above the USD 3,600 resistance

• Bitcoin price is moving higher above the USD 3,600 resistance.
• Ethereum and ripple are climbing higher towards key resistance levels.
• Dentacoin (DCN) rallied more than 15% and XIN is up around 8%.

After a few bearish moves, bitcoin price found support near the USD 3,550 level. BTC/USD is slowly recovering and it could gain bullish momentum above the USD 3,600 and USD 3,620 levels in the near term. Similarly, ethereum is moving higher and it is currently (UTC 10:00 AM) placed above the USD 120 support. A clear break above USD 125 is needed for a decent upward move. Ripple price is currently flat near the USD 0.3220, but it could make a nice recovery if buyers push the price above USD 0.335. The technical structure is showing a few positive signs, but bitcoin must move past USD 3,650 for a sustained bullish wave.

Total market capitalization

Bitcoin price
Buyers managed to push bitcoin price above the USD 3,580 and USD 3,600 resistance levels. BTC/USD is currently consolidating near USD 3,600, with an immediate resistance at USD 3,625, above which the price is likely to test the key USD 3,650 resistance.
To start a decent uptrend, BTC buyers need to push the price above the USD 3,650 resistance. The next major hurdles are near the USD 3,750 and USD 3,800 resistance levels. On the downside, an initial support is at USD 3,580, followed by the main weekly support at USD 3,550.

Ethereum price
Ethereum price stayed above the USD 115 support and it recovered above the USD 118 and USD 120 resistance levels. ETH/USD is currently trading near USD 121 and it seems like it could test the USD 125 resistance in the near term.
On the downside, a bearish break below the USD 120 and USD 118 supports may push the price back in a negative zone for a test of the USD 115 support.

Bitcoin cash, eos and ripple price
Bitcoin cash price made an attempt to surpass the USD 130 resistance, but buyers failed to gain traction. BCH/USD is currently trading well above the USD 125 support, with a few positive signs on the hourly chart.
EOS gained more than 2% today and tested the USD 2.50 resistance. Buyers struggled to gain pace above USD 2.50, but the price remains well supported above USD 2.30.
Ripple price is trading in a tight range above the USD 0.322 support. On the upside, XRP/USD is facing a tough challenge near the USD 0.335 resistance, above which the price may climb to USD 0.350.

Other altcoins market today
During the past few hours, a few small cap altcoins gained more than 8%, including DCN, XIN, XZC and AOA. Out of these, DCN is up more than 15% and XIN gained close to 9%.
To sum up, bitcoin could make an attempt to gain momentum above USD 3,620 and USD 3,650 to end the week on a positive note. However, if BTC/USD fails to break the USD 3,650 and USD 3,700 resistances, it could drop back to USD 3,500 and it might also drag ethereum and ripple lower.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Weekly Market Research - Stocks gained for a fourth straight week

US: S&P 500 Index +2.9%, Dow +3.0%, Nasdaq +2.7%
Europe: STOXX Europe 600 +2.3%, German DAX +2.9% France CAC 40 +2.0%, U.K. FTSE 100 -1.2%
Asia: Japan Nikkei +1.5%, China Shanghai Composite +1.7%, Korea KOSPI +2.4%
Rates/Commodities: 10-Year Treasury yield +6 basis points to 2.73%, WTI crude oil +1.2%, COMEX gold: +0.35%

Stocks gained for a fourth straight week as major indexes continue to retrace last month’s steep losses, boosted by bank earnings and late-week developments in the U.S.-China trade narrative. Foreign indexes climbed in the week, but lagged their U.S. counterparts. Further stimulus announcements out of China were offset by a historically bad outcome of the U.K’s Parliamentary Brexit vote.

Global equities staged a late-week rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin proposed lowering tariffs as an incentive for the Chinese to make a deal when Beijing’s top negotiator comes to Washington at the end of the month for another round of formal talks. The Trump Administration downplayed the news, but stocks sustained their rally after a second round of headlines on Friday suggested the Chinese would significantly ramp up U.S. imports in an effort to eliminate its trade surplus over the next six years. “Trade tensions have rattled markets, and investors are still watching headlines for direction,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We still believe the fundamental U.S. economic landscape is compelling, and once trade uncertainty clears, investors will likely focus more on solid economic conditions and corporate earnings growth.”

Strength in the U.S. was buoyed throughout the week by an undercurrent of generally good earnings reports from a series of large financial institutions that included Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America. As a result, the financials sector outperformed, while defensives like utilities and consumer staples lagged. The continued shift back into equities pushed Treasury yields up—though the yield curve flattened a bit—and weighed on precious metals like gold and silver. On the other hand, industrial metals, which are more closely tied to economic growth expectations, moved mostly higher. Oil prices hit two-month highs on the heels of an OPEC report showing the group is ahead of schedule on production cuts.

In addition to U.S.-China trade headlines, investors in Europe were focused on the U.K’s parliamentary vote to determine whether the country would have a formal agreement in place when it leaves the European Union at the end of March. Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal was overwhelmingly rejected, though she survived a no-confidence vote thereafter to remain in her position and reassess her options. Market reaction was somewhat muted given the gravity of the situation, but the outcome was never really in doubt.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Weekly Economic Review - This week will see some key activity

This week will see some key activity, with central bank input from the ECB and the Bank of Japan, as well as important data releases primarily concerning China and New Zealand.

The market is likely to be most active on Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday is a public holiday in the U.S.A.

Euro
It will be an important week for the Euro, with the Main Refinancing Rate and ECB Press Conference due on Thursday.

Japanese Yen
It will be an important week for the Yen, with the Bank of Japan’s Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement, and Press Conference due on Wednesday.

Chinese Yuan
It will be an important week for the Yuan, with Chinese GDP data due on Monday.

British Pound
It will be a quiet week for the British Pound, with nothing due except the Average Earnings Index on Tuesday.

Australian Dollar
It will be a relatively quiet week for the Aussie, with nothing due except Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data due on Thursday.

New Zealand Dollar
It will be a potentially important week but slow week for the Kiwi, with nothing due except CPI data on Wednesday.

Canadian Dollar
It will be a quiet week for the Loonie, with nothing due except Core Retail Sales data on Wednesday.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - Dollar Higher on Trade Talk Hopes

Dollar Higher on Trade Talk Hopes
The US Dollar gained some support against the Japanese Yen during Friday trade in Asia on renewed optimism that the trade talks between the US and China are exhibiting signs of progress. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal had reported that Steve Mnuchin, the Secretary of the Treasury, was considering lowering Chinese import tariffs; that news, which was subsequently rebuked by a spokesman from the Treasury Department, helped to improve sentiment nonetheless. Later this month, China’s Vice Premier will be visiting the US to continue the discussion with US counterparts with a goal to resolving some of the long-standing trade issues.

As reported at 10;32 am (JST) in Tokyo, the USD/JPY was trading at 109.3340 Yen, a gain of 0.1236%; the pair is off the session peak of 109.398 Yen, while the low stands at 109.060 Yen. The AUD/USD was higher at $0.72, up 0.16%; the pair has ranged from a low of 0.71681 Yen to a high of 0.72053 Yen in today’s trading day. The NZD/USD is up at $0.6767, a rise of 0.20%, and off the session high of $0.67747.

Fundamental Events Ahead
Ahead in the trading day, markets will look for any news coming from the G20 economic summit in Osaka, Japan. Given the continuing differences of opinion between the US and China as regards trade, analysts will be watching for any positive news to come out of the meeting. Also ahead in the trading day is the release of industrial production and capacity utilization figures in December from Japan. That will be followed by the release of GDP figures from the UK which are expected to be flat on an annualized basis and show a marked decline on a monthly basis. Figures on US industrial production and capacity utilization will also be coming out late on Friday.

DXY:

Intraday target: $96.90
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1300
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2630
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $49.70
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3480
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $110
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Crypto Report - Bitcoin price declined below the USD 3,550 support to move into a bearish zone

Bitcoin and Altcoins Turned Short Term Bearish

• Bitcoin price declined below the USD 3,550 support to move into a bearish zone.
• Ethereum (ETH) and ripple (XRP) declined heavily and traded below important supports.
• HOT, REP and WAN are down more than 10% today.

This past week, we saw a tiny recovery in bitcoin above the USD 3,650 level. However, the BTC/USD failed to hold gains above the USD 3,700 - USD 3,720 resistance area, resulting in a fresh decline in the past few days. The price declined sharply and traded below the USD 3,650, USD 3,600 and USD 3,550 support levels to move into a bearish zone. Similarly, ethereum declined heavily from well above the USD 125 level to well below USD 115. Ripple price followed the bearish sentiment and tumbled below the USD 0.322 and USD 0.320 support levels. The current (UTC 08:30 AM) market sentiment is short term bearish and there are possibilities of more losses in the coming sessions.

Total market capitalization

Bitcoin price
After topping near the USD 3,720 level, bitcoin price declined sharply below USD 3,600 support. BTC/USD even broke the USD 3,550 and USD 3,500 support levels. It traded towards the USD 3,475 later recovered above USD 3,500. The price is down more than 4% and it remains at a risk of a downside break below USD 3,500 and 3,450 in the near term.
On the upside, the previous supports near USD 3,550, USD 3,580 and USD 3,600 are likely to act as major hurdles if there is a short term correction.

Ethereum price
Ethereum price tumbled once sellers pushed the price below the USD 122 and USD 120 support. ETH/USD declined below USD 115 and traded close to the USD 113 support level.
The price is currently correcting higher towards the USD 116 and USD 118 resistance levels. To start a proper recovery, buyers need to push the price above the USD 120 and USD 125 weekly resistance levels. On the downside, the main weekly supports are USD 110 and USD 102.

Bitcoin cash, eos and ripple price
Bitcoin cash failed to stay above the USD 125 support and declined more than 5%. BCH/USD is currently trading near the USD 120 support and it seems like it could extend the current decline towards the USD 115 or USD 112 support level.
EOS is down more than 5% and it is currently facing resistance near the USD 2.35 level. On the upside, there are many hurdles near USD 2.40 and USD 2.50. The main weekly support is seen near USD 2.25.
Ripple price dived below the USD 0.320 support to enter a bearish zone. XRP/USD is now trading in a bearish zone, with an immediate support at USD 0.311 and 0.306.
Other altcoins market today
During the past few sessions, many small cap altcoins declined more than 8%, including HOT, REP, WAN, MKR, POWR, R, WAX, KMD, NEXO and AION. Out of these, HOT declined around 18% and REP is down close to 11%. Meanwhile, PAY ralied more than 25%.
To sum up, bitcoin is back in a negative territory below USD 3,600. BTC/USD may decline further if buyers fail to gather momentum above the USD 3,550, USD 3,600 and USD 3,620 resistance levels. Similarly, ethereum and ripple are likely to extend losses if bitcoin price slides further below USD 3,500 and USD 3,450.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - UK Payroll

Market Movers for January 22, 2019
On Tuesday, January 22, 2019, the markets will be concerned with the release of economic calendar data, which usually results in changes in price movements. The economic agenda is a key tool for the fundamental analysis of the news to predict the performance of the markets. Therefore, caution must be taken to determine the results of these actual data to make the right decision in trading.

UK Payroll: Total British wages, including bonuses, rose at an annualized rate of 3.3 percent to £528 a week for three months prior to October last year, after adjusting the figure for the previous period up to a gain of 3.1 percent. Analysts' estimates exceeded 3.0 percent. Total wages rose at the fastest rate in three months to July 2008. Pay growth in the private and service sectors increased. However, it has advanced at the same rate in construction, retail, wholesale, hotels and restaurants. In the public sector and manufacturing industries, wage growth slowed.

Excluding bonuses, wages rose 3.3 percent to £495 a week, the highest rate since the end of 2008, after a 3.2 percent increase in the previous period. This was in line with analysts' expectations. In terms of real value, wages including bonuses rose by 1.1 percent, while wages excluding bonuses rose by 1.0 percent.

The wage growth forecast for the three months to November 2018: 3.3 percent.

New Zealand Consumer Price Index: Consumer prices rose 0.9 percent in the third quarter of last year and 1.9 percent year-on-year. Analysts had expected inflation to rise to 0.7 percent in the quarter and 1.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018. This figure is slightly lower than the RBNZ target of 1.0 percent to 3.0 percent. The increase was supported by transportation, residential and household facilities, residential rents, construction sectors and food prices.

Expectations for the fourth quarter of last year: consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged.

DXY:

Intraday target: $96.90
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1300
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2630
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $49.70
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3600
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $123
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Crypto Report - Bitcoin and Altcoins Showed a Few Positive Signs

Bitcoin and Altcoins Showed a Few Positive Signs

• Bitcoin price recovered a few points and moved above USD 3,550.
• Ethereum and ripple are slowly moving higher towards key resistances.
• LRC and RVN gained more than 20% today.

Yesterday, we discussed make-or-break levels for bitcoin. BTC/USD managed to stay above the USD 3,500 support level and it recently started an upside correction. The price recovered above the USD 3,540 and USD 3,550 resistance levels, but still there are many hurdles on the upside. Ethereum also found support near the USD 110 level and later recovered above USD 115. However, ripple price is struggling to gain bullish momentum and it may continue to face a strong resistance near USD 0.318 and USD 0.320. The technical structure is still bearish, but there are a few positive signs on the hourly chart of BTC.

Total market capitalization

Bitcoin price
After a sharp decline below USD 3,500, bitcoin price found a strong buying interest. BTC/USD corrected higher and broke the USD 3,540 and USD 3,550 resistance levels. The price is currently up around 1%, with an immediate resistance near the USD 3,580 and USD 3,600 levels.
If there is an upside break above USD 3,580 and USD 3,600, buyers could gain control and there may be more upsides towards the USD 3,700 level. If not, there could be a fresh drop towards the USD 3,500 support.

Ethereum price
Ethereum price tested the key USD 110 support and later recovered above the USD 115 resistance. ETH/USD is currently trading above USD 117, with an immediate resistance at USD 120.
Once buyers succeed in gaining strength above USD 120, the price could rally towards the USD 124 and 127 levels. On the downside, the main supports are seen near the USD 115 and USD 113 levels.

Bitcoin cash, eos and ripple price
Bitcoin cash price gained traction after testing the USD 115 level. BCH/USD bounced back above USD 125 and it is currently up more than 6%. The next key resistance is at USD 130, above which the price may
rise towards the USD 136 level.
EOS is up close to 5% and it seems like the price may soon test the USD 2.45 and USD 2.50 resistance levels. On the downside, the main support is at USD 2.40, followed by USD 2.32.
Ripple price seems to be struggling near the USD 0.318 and USD 0.320 resistance levels. XRP/USD must surpass the USD 0.320 barrier for a decent recovery towards the USD 0.330 and USD 0.335 levels. If not, it could revisit the USD 0.305 support level.
Other altcoins market today
During the past few hours, many small cap altcoins gained and moved up by more than 8%, including LRC, RVN, WAVES, RDD, BTM, STEEM and THETA. Out of these, LRC is up more than 23% and RVN gained close to 21%.
To sum up, the current price action is positive and bitcoin may slowly climb towards the USD 3,580 and USD 3,600 resistance levels. However, BTC/USD needs to gain strength above USD 3,600 for a sustained upward move. If not, there could be a fresh decline in bitcoin price and altcoins in the near term.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter-Markets Struggle with Trade Uncertainty

Markets Struggle with Trade Uncertainty
Asian markets were trading mixed on Wednesday afternoon, as traders remained cautious in the face of continued trade tensions between the United States and China. According to reports from CNBC, Washington has declined a trade planning meeting with China that was expected to be scheduled for this week. The report claims that the meeting was cancelled due to lingering disagreements about intellectual property rules. Another meeting is expected to be held at the end of the month, in the hopes of advancing a mutually-agreeable trade agenda that will be confirmed before the March 1 deadline after which U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he will implement new tariffs.

South Korea’s Kopsi was trading up 0.31 percent as of 2:29 p.m. HK/SIN on Wednesday, and China’s Shenzhen Composite was up 0.09 percent. All other major indexes were trading lower. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.14 percent, Australia’s ASX 200 was down 0.26 percent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.14 percent. The losses in Japan were tempered by the lower yen.

The mixed trading in Asia came after all three major Wall Street indexes closed down on Tuesday.

Currency Movements
The U.S. dollar soared 0.29 percent against the yen on Wednesday, trading at 109.68. The yen also fell 0.5 percent against the Australian dollar. The Bank of Japan announced on Wednesday that it would be keeping monetary policy stable, and it trimmed its inflation forecast due to a larger-than-expected decline in December exports which highlighted the need to continue supporting the economy.

The dollar index was trading flat on Wednesday afternoon in Asia, with the greenback gaining modestly against the dollar but losing ground against the euro.

DXY:

Intraday target: $96.90
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1300
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2606
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $49.70
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3600
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $123
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - Global Uncertainty Continues to Control Markets

Global Uncertainty Continues to Control Markets
Global markets continued to look for direction on Thursday as investor uncertainty about the state of the global economy created opportunity for both concern and optimism. In Australia, employment data released on Thursday was above expectations, showing the creation of 21,600 jobs in December, significantly more than the 16,500 jobs predicted. The unemployment rate down under was settled at 5 percent, lower than the 5.1 percent analysts had forecast. Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 index was up 0.38 percent as of 2:48 p.m. HKSIN, though the Australian dollar slipped in mid-afternoon trade, heading lower against the dollar to 0.7096.

The optimism down under, however, was tempered by lingering concerns about the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, and fresh diplomatic strains between the United States and Venezuela. On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced that it would throw support to Juan Guaido, the Venezuelan National Assembly leader, a move which directly caused the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, to recall all Venezuelan diplomatic staffers from the U.S., and to sever ties immediately with Washington. Escalating tensions between the countries could be potentially detrimental for both sides and could have wide-reaching impacts, since the U.S. is a big purchaser of heavy crude from Venezuela’s Bolivarian Republic, and Venezuela is a big importer of super light crude from the U.S. Traders are also concerned since President Trump has shown that he is willing to enforce sanctions, and since Venezuela holds OPEC’s rotating presidency this year, such sanctions could impact all of the biggest global oil producers.

U.S. WTI futures were down 0.57 percent in the mid-afternoon in Asia, trading at $52.32 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were trading at $60.79 per barrel, also down 0.57 percent.

DXY:

Intraday target: $97.00
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.1300
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $152
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2610
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $54.50
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3597
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $121
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Daily Macro View - Volatility reemerges, but focus on the long term

Daily Insights

Volatility reemerges, but focus on the long term. Major U.S. indexes are recouping some of yesterday’s losses, which stemmed from reports that the White House rejected an offer hold preparatory talks ahead of trade negotiations between top officials later this month. But after the S&P 500 Index’s ~10% run over the past four weeks (details below), including a four-day win streak prior to yesterday’s slide, traders were likely looking for a reason to take some profits. However, focus is returning to corporate earnings, which ultimately drive stock prices, as upbeat numbers this morning from three Dow components are providing the benchmark index with a boost and underpinning a tentative rebound in sentiment. To be sure, global growth concerns, the U.S. government shutdown, and a host of other issues are still on the market’s radar, but it’s important for investors to discount short-term swings and focus on their long-term goals.

Stocks up, now what? The S&P 500 has gained more than 10% over the past four weeks–which includes the 2.7% selloff on Christmas Eve–, for the best four week stretch since 2011. But even more impressive is how consistent the gains have been. In fact, the S&P 500 has added at least 1.5% for four consecutive weeks for the first time since coming off of the March 2009 lows.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Crypto Report - Bitcoin and Altcoins Approaching Next Crucial Break

Bitcoin and Altcoins Approaching Next Crucial Break

• Bitcoin price is forming a breakout pattern with resistance at USD 3,600 and support near USD 3,500.
• Ethereum and ripple are also confined in a tiny range above key supports.
• HOT and NPXS rallied more than 20% today.

There were mostly range moves in the past few sessions and bitcoin struggled to break the USD 3,600 resistance level. It seems like BTC/USD could make the next move in the coming sessions, which could be either above USD 3,600 or below USD 3,500. Similarly, ethereum is preparing for the next key break either above USD 120 or towards USD 100. Ripple price may follow BTC and ETH and it could either gain bullish momentum above USD 0.320 or decline to revisit the USD 0.300 support area in the near term.

Total market capitalization

Bitcoin price
After a decent recovery, bitcoin price faced a strong resistance near the USD 3,600 level. BTC/USD corrected lower and tested the USD 3,550 support level. The current price action is slightly bearish, but it seems like the price is preparing for the next key break either above USD 3,600 or below USD 3,500 and USD 3,475.
If there is an upside break above the 3,600 resistance, the price is likely to rally towards the USD 3,750 and USD 3,800 resistance levels. Alternatively, there could be a bearish break below the USD 3,500 and 3,475 supports.

Ethereum price
Ethereum price is facing a tough resistance near the USD 120 level, above which buyers are likely to gain strength for a solid upward move. The next major resistance is at USD 128, followed by USD 130.
On the other hand, if there is a bearish reaction below the USD 112 support, there are high chances of an extended decline towards the USD 100 handle.

Bitcoin cash, eos and ripple price
Bitcoin cash price recently tested the USD 125 support and it is currently moving higher. BCH/USD must move above the USD 130, USD 132 and USD 135 resistance levels to start a sustained uptrend in the near term.
EOS seems to be facing a strong selling interest near the USD 2.50 level. Therefore, to move into a bullish zone, EOS buyers need to clear the USD 2.50 and USD 2.55 hurdles.
Ripple price is trading well below the key USD 0.320 resistance level. If XRP/USD continues to struggle near USD 0.320, there is a risk of a downside break towards the USD 0.300 and USD 0.295 support levels.

Other altcoins market today
Recently, a few small cap altcoins gained traction and moved up sharply, including HOT, NPXS, PIVX, DGD, ELF and DCN. Out of these, HOT is up more than 35% and NPXS gained close to 22%.
Overall, bitcoin price is setting up for the next significant move either above USD 3,600 or below USD 3,500. The technical structure is slightly bearish, but considering the current oversold conditions, there are chances of an upward move in BTC/USD, ethereum, and other altcoins in the near term.

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Morning Technical Newsletter - Pound Momentum Ebbs

Pound Momentum Ebbs
While it has now lost some momentum, the Pound Sterling had earlier struck an 11-week peak during overnight trading on renewed optimism that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided. The latest attempt by Parliamentary lawmakers to find an acceptable alternative seems to have garnered the backing of lawmakers, which improved sentiment favorably and had traders looking to add the Pound back into their portfolios. Given the hopeful sentiment, the Pound has gained nearly 2.3% in the month of January, and signals from derivative markets are suggesting that there is likely to be more backing for the Pound in the days ahead.

As reported at 11:35 am (GMT) in London, the GBP/USD was trading at $1.3028, down 0.38% and well away from the session peak of $1.3094, while the low was recorded at $1.3020. The EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8705 Pence, a gain of 0.06% and moving away from the session low of 0.86889 Pence while the high was recorded at 0.87253 Pence.

Mario Draghi Presser Eyed
In the Eurozone, markets are awaiting the European Central Bank monetary policy decision. While analysts have predicted that the ECB will leave lending and deposit rates at the current levels, there will be much more interest in the press conference that will follow the announcement. Market players want to know whether Mario Draghi, the current head of the ECB, will finally acknowledge the mounting risks to Eurozone growth. In December's meeting, Draghi had said that while risks were present, they were essentially balanced; his take on those threats to the Eurozone's economic outlook and the impact on the Euro is of the utmost concern to FX traders.

DXY:

Intraday target: $97.00
Long-term target: $100



EUR/USD:

Intraday target: 1.12760
Long-term target: 1.0800



APPLE:

Intraday target: $150
Long-term target: $100



SPX:

Intraday target: $2610
Long-term target: $2000



GOLD:

Intraday target: $1270
Long-term target: $1183



WTICOUSD:

Intraday target: $54.50
Long-term target: $27.00



BITCOIN:

Intraday target: $3597
Long-term target: $2000



ETHEREUM:

Intraday target: $121
Long-term target: $60

 

[GroundStone Holdings]

Daily Macro View - Japan’s manufacturing activity stopped expanding

Daily Insights

Japan’s manufacturing activity stopped expanding in December. Activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector fell to the neutral mark in December, according to flash Purchasing Managers’ Index data out this morning, after two-and-a-half years of expansion. This follows trade data yesterday that showed Japanese exports fell 3.8% year over year in December, the slowest pace in two years amid slower growth in China and global trade tensions. Just one year ago exports were growing at a double-digit annual pace. However, in an encouraging sign, the IMF raised its gross domestic product growth forecast for Japan earlier this week from 0.9% to 1.1%, and the Bank of Japan voted to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy when it met earlier this week.

ECB stands pat on rate plans, downgrades growth expectations. At the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting earlier today, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key deposit rate at -0.4%, as expected. It also reiterated that it expects the key “interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019” and intends to continue reinvesting principal payments from maturing securities for an extended period of time past the date when it begins raising rates. However, in his post-meeting press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged that risks remain to the downside as economic data has deteriorated recently, and inflation has failed to sustain any upward momentum.

Europe’s woes go beyond Brexit. Brexit is not the only risk in Europe for global investors to consider. Throughout the continent, a tighter regulatory environment and strict labor laws have restricted business growth, while the rise of populism has added obstacles.

Bring on the stimulus. China’s economy grew 6.4% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 6.6% for the full year, its slowest pace since 1991. Other data including retail sales, industrial production, and capital investment corroborate the slowdown. Economic weakness puts additional pressure on the Chinese to resolve U.S. trade issues and increases the odds of meaningful fresh stimulus. A potential U.S.-China trade agreement over the next several months would also have a stimulative effect and we think could help buoy performance of EM stocks.