Greenspan's testimony

[bonsai]

It would not surprise me if the market reacted more to Greenspan retiring than a rise in interest rates ? (300 pts on the day ?)

It's certainly going to happen. (Death and Taxes)

And possibly before inflation seriously picks up.

I doubt he will want to serve under yet another President ?

So that may be a greater market risk ?

 

[techcherry]

my humble opinion is the markets gave a modest response to the assurances of recover and of rise in interest rates ( but not for now) from yesterday grenspan's speech , first because of the massive selling of the day before but also on alt for the data coming out today, which I am counting for positive news related to the jobless claims, but not as the 380.000 of the last report, but I believe if the markets get once again a favourable data will respond positively, at least I am long on s&p futures...
lets just hope it turns that way...

 

[bracke]

If the jobless claims and other data are 'good', will that not bring a rise in interest rates closer and therefore a fall in the markets.

Regards

bracke

 

[Finirama]

Got a rising wedge from yesterdays action...expecting a retest of 1,115-1,116 today

 

[Dow Dog]

I doubt he will want to serve under yet another President ?

Dont' you mean, " I doubt he will want to serve under yet another a*****e" ?

 

[bonsai]

bracke

we may all yet be surprised

if an interest rate increase does come, it may well spur the market higher.

its indecision that markets dont like

 

[BBB]

The Eurodolla is anything but....

 

[techcherry]

brackle, I do agree with you in terms of a normal situations , but after the speech of yesterday where in the end grenspan's gave some direction to the market in terms of there is the certainty's of the rise in the interests rates but not for now with his confirmation of a recovery on full swing with the bonus of the inflation issue is still not a "issue" for the fed , at least for now ( the results of one of the indicators of the today actually indicating a rise in the wholesale prices), and to end lets not forget the factor - extremely good results coming out !!!
all this together is what gave me a "bullish" feeling about the markets for the next days...
of course who am I , but this was my read ... I hope I am right ?!

 

[bracke]

So are we saying that the markets are now getting used to the idea that interest rates are going up and the fear factor has diminished, inflation is in check so rates will not rise just yet and when they do it will not be by too much, earnings are above expectations. So all in all the danger of a large drop has passed. This is bourne out by the VIX which was under 15 to-day.

Regards

bracke

 

[techcherry]

hi bracke , you know how to put it better then I , and I am still bullish for today for the main us markets...but forgive me my ignorance...what did you meant with ... :?:

...the vix in under 15...

...if you don't mind could you explain the "concrete"...sorry, still learning !?!!!

 

[bracke]

techcherry

vix = oex volatility index. It measures the implied volatility in the prices of a number of options on the s&p 100 index, which is a part of the s&p 500

When the vix is low it indicates greed and when it is high it indicates fear. For a full description go to www.zealllc.com and look through the listing of essays for those on the vix.

You can see the vix index and graph on www.yahoo.co.uk. Plot the vix and the dow, s&p etc on the same graph and see the corelation.

By the way I was being a little tongue in cheek with my remark about the danger having passed. I have been bearish the market for a year and come unstuck a couple of times. I have now learned that the market can do anything at any time and not to get too pedantic about what it is going to do, As has been said by others more experienced in the markets than I " watch the charts and do not pay too much attention to other events " It is difficult to forecast the reaction of the markets to events, often going in the opposite direction to which logic suggest they ought to go.

Regards

bracke

 

[techcherry]

thanks bracke

you are quite right...and I think I just learn a big lesson, I had a good day and I follow emotions and got into the dow = long , because all the earnings are on average of 15% +- on y/y , and look at it are down...maybe they still turn...I hope,otherwise the a day which started so well will be ruined because of my greed !
thanks once again!