Gratuitous 500th Post

[BBB]

I used to use candles before the nice man from the electricity board came round. I still use them if I run out of coins for the meter.

lol-

I used to use candles, but now use bars. Now I see candles as giving too much clutter. I'd suffer from analysis paralysis. I find bars give exactly the same information as a candle, but you must look a bit harder.

Either way, I dont personally find opens or closes on an intraday chart to be that meaningful. Only the high and low is useful - but thats just me.

 

[axthree]

I use bars for index futures and line to watch the daily action. Just looking for that banana shaped curve which usually allows me to pile in for a few beer money points. Up until Friday I had been a non drinker for several days
Just out of interest, as I spread bet and the SBs move roughly with the market I actually use their chart figures rather than the real ones. Am I making an idiop of myself?

 

[TheBramble]

Just out of interest, as I spread bet and the SBs move roughly with the market I actually use their chart figures rather than the real ones. Am I making an idiop of myself?

Apart from the numerous negative issues associated with using SBs discussed on these boards, I'd say, if you're trading the SB data, then using their figures is a more than sensible approach.

Trading decisions based on what you 'believe' they base their figures on would be less sensible.

 

[LevII]

axthree,

Sorry to disagree Bramble, but IMO you should enter and manage your trade using real prices and only look at the SB price when you are ready to exit. Reason: the SB prices are not 'real' and, presumably, you are basing your decisions on TA.

TA works because human reactions repeat. That shows itself in price action not the odds fixed by a bookmaker.

 

[axthree]

Levll,
Agree the SB have their own numbers but these do appear to move with the market. I have taken on board the fact that they are biased and that features in my forming opinions on market movement.
Lack of confidence is all that stops me moving to direct access. That and the fact that I am only now considering upping my trading pot from 1K to 5K.
I'm working on the undemanding principle that even if I only make 10% p.a. I'm still doing better than a deposit acct.
So far I'm making 2-3% per week on capital employed, which is slightly down on last year.
I am taking a 2-4 day position on average but tend to take a profit when it's there.
I think I have the greed/fear ratio going the right way but am always open to advice from more experienced traders.
I'm happy to explain my methodology but don't want to bore everybody.

 

[LevII]

axthree,

I didn't realise your trading involved longer timeframes. That being the case, I do not think it matters a jot which prices you look at. My remarks were aimed at intraday trading where it is easy to be spooked (and stopped out) by the bias and stop hitting antics of the SB companies.

On longer term trades I've often thought (but never researched) that one might take advantage of the bias by buying into short term weakness (bias against shorters) and selling into short term strength.

Again, IMO, while you are taking a longer term approach, you are probably better off (tax, commissions, ease of shorting etc.) staying with SB. Provided you have access to the instruments you want to trade, I see little benefit in trading through a broker. Matter for you though.

Do not worry about explaining your methodology or boring anyybody. There will be many on this board who would (1) be impressed by your returns on a low stress methodology (2) welcome being able to consider a longer term approach (3) may be able to assist you to improve your present excellent returns or reduce your risk etc.

There may also be some idiots who will seek to belittle you. Just ignore them!!

LII

 

[TheBramble]

Ditto LevII's sentiments.

2% pw equates to approx. 10% pm with equates to (very approx) 150% pa.

Now, that's a little bit better than your local savings account wouldn't you say?

I imagine there are more than a few on these boards who wouldn't mind placing at least a part of their trading capital into a low-risk, low-stress longer-term system with those sort of returns.

 

[axthree]

I don't think a real pro. would be happy with the length of time the money is tied up, or the risk/reward ratio.
What I haven't mentioned is the seesaw effect. Several large gains followed by a series of losses.
I'm the first to admit that I wouldn't trade this way if my living absoulutely depended on it.
I think that, perhaps unknowingly, I'm the beneficiary of a lot of luck