GOOG - Long or Short......?!

[LION63]

Every time I look at the graph it resembles an escalator on the way up. The recent intra day high was $299.55, not bad for a share that was floated at $85. Were the issuers that incompetent or were they just feeling overly generous with other people's money? Those that bought in at the outset are sitting on a juicy 235% profit not bad for such a short period. Surely there cannot be any logical fundamental reason for buying the shares, even the hope factor no longer exists, it has come down to ... I must own them instead of being left behind.

I can see why the TA chaps would continue to pile in and I cannot say I really blame them because all they ever say is, "I trade what I see" and "The trend is your friend". The sad thing is that when the train hits the buffers most of them will be in serious trouble. Can you imagine what will happen if it loses 10% on the open, some traders are using leverage of between 10 to 20 times. They are probably the same sort that buy shares in companies that drill for oil in very exotic locations and promise myopic investors riches beyond their dreams.

As for those analysts and fund managers, they are the type that would invest in a company that produces rubber kitchen knives. They are so good that one chap that works for an institution in London lost 40% of the funds under management and got paid a £5 million bonus.

Look carefully at the list of insiders that have been selling and you will notice that they have one thing in common. In the event that you do not spot it, I will send you a PM.

 

[ducati998]

Lion63,

The only management that I have seen is,

05/26/05 SCHMIDT ERIC E Sold .........................................3,570................. $263.07 939,159.88
05/26/05 SCHMIDT ERIC E Sold......................................... 3,770 .................$261.86 987,193.38
05/26/05 SCHMIDT ERIC E Sold......................................... 6,940 ........................$261.20 1.81 Mil

The other insider "names" I don't recognise.

Every time I look at the graph it resembles an escalator on the way up. The recent intra day high was $299.55, not bad for a share that was floated at $85. Were the issuers that incompetent or were they just feeling overly generous with other people's money? Those that bought in at the outset are sitting on a juicy 235% profit not bad for such a short period. Surely there cannot be any logical fundamental reason for buying the shares, even the hope factor no longer exists, it has come down to ... I must own them instead of being left behind.

No, GOOG eschewed Wall St and ran their own public auction. Wall St punished them badly for taking away their underwriting fees, and now, the pain is worse, as all that money left on the table must eat at the 2 original owners.

There is NO FUNDAMENTAL reason whatsoever. I would be interested at $6.50 odd, but I'm not holding my breath, but I'll be there at the inevitable conclusion.

Hope springs eternal in Wall St., "plus ca change, plus ca la meme chose"

I can see why the TA chaps would continue to pile in and I cannot say I really blame them because all they ever say is, "I trade what I see" and "The trend is your friend". The sad thing is that when the train hits the buffers most of them will be in serious trouble. Can you imagine what will happen if it loses 10% on the open, some traders are using leverage of between 10 to 20 times. They are probably the same sort that buy shares in companies that drill for oil in very exotic locations and promise myopic investors riches beyond their dreams.

Sure, the daytraders love it for the volatility. Swing-traders could get killed on this one, as you say an overnight gap could hurt them real bad..............if it seriously gapped down, I could envisage an easy $50

As for those analysts and fund managers, they are the type that would invest in a company that produces rubber kitchen knives. They are so good that one chap that works for an institution in London lost 40% of the funds under management and got paid a £5 million bonus.

It is partly why so many try to trade their own account, they figure with some justification that they couldn't do much worse..............some can though.

Look carefully at the list of insiders that have been selling and you will notice that they have one thing in common. In the event that you do not spot it, I will send you a PM.

Send it anyway, I only see the 1 already mentioned.
Cheers d998

 

[LION63]

It reminds me of one of the very very big family (unfortunately the name escapes me) players on Wall Street who had made a fortune during the corporate raiding era, they were close to Michael Milken, Carl Ichan and co. and everything was just fine until they got caught up in the dot com mania. They were leveraged up to their eyeballs and when the market tanked, they got margin calls and had to liquidate more that a $1 billion Disney shares just to cover the bad positions. That could never happen to Warren Buffet or Prince Whalid Bin Talal.

Sane investors ask for the profits, dividends, cash flow etc. I was taught that if my money is on the line as opposed to being in an interest yielding account that is safe, the risk has to out way the reward. I do not see any of that in Google. It is easy to see why the pension funds cannot meet their liabilities, they are gambling instead of investing. The twits are now saying that shares that are held for 1 - 2 years are a long term investment. In the old days you bought the shares and as long as the profits kept growing and the dividends increased, you forgot about them. Did it matter if inflation ticked up by 1% a year or there was a slight rise in unemployment?

The sad thing is that most of those that take on this disproportionate risk make less than those that do longer term trades but then I do not think that they ever bothered to read the old classic - "Where are the customers' yachts?"

 

[soccer_daemon]

Seeing star ?

Is 6th June to 8th June an evening star formation ? I admit that 7th June didn't
have a long tail to the upside but I thought the gap open on the star day made it
almost text book perfect.

What is your thought ?

Thanks
SD

 

[sandrab]

look soccer........
.....goog is an intraday trading stock...........
....so forget thinking about the star.........orthe moon...........
..........just intraday trade what u see..........

 

[sp1]

Hi all Ive been away from this forum for some time,

Talking about goog, I have an opinion.

The media has been going ballistic on goog from the great earning that were released when it was at 200ish. Actually i remember goog bull run starting from 180 when intel and then yahoo, results were good.

I think there may be a case of; given the price rises and the relentless media pussh anyone who would have bought goog has. When all longs are in whats left?

I would never like to call the current price as a top. Cos I dont know the bounds of a bubble (I think its in bubble, its worth more than BT and TESCO combined).

But it looks like a bubble and all justifications that it can be sustained will rely on this time its different and new paradigms and old valuations dont work in his new economy / new frontier bussiness.

We all know the macro economics are pointing us towards spending slowdown in the client markets of google.

Like the last major consumer slowdown when people increased thier to saveings, we saw a reduction in advertising spend it hit companies like wpp earnings hard.

The best things ive been exposed to re trading is the Remenisients Of A Stock Operator book. And I am learning to interperet everything though the analysis i think Larry Livermeore would have used.

It is proving a dream my paper potfoilio is returning good profits, And on that basis i thinck google will fail on it earnings like all the other ad companies at some time over the next few years.

 

[DalaiLuke]

Hi Sandy,

Have u been burnt on GOOG as well! - LOL

I bought 100 shares at $165, I still hold it - and u tell me it is an intraday stock.
I do a covered call on a regular basis, and have never had to deliver stocks, I keep collecting more than $5 or more each month - that is $500, I have a leap PUT option bought to protect my stock. Against that I sell nearmonth puts - sort of covered puts!

So far my net cost of GOOg after collecting all those premiums is less than $100, and the price is near $300 - and you tell me this is an intraday stock - hey babe, you have to know what you doing!

Hi gbp trader... wondering what you are doing now? Any change in strategy? I was short GOOG yesterday, watching today, would like to enter short again, as it's having a hard time rebounding from yesterday's hit.

CORRECTION: LOOKING TO HOLD 100 SHORT... NOT YET
Too much good news is always my favorite time to short, and GOOG seems ripe for the picking. Holding 100 short with a target of 225... also shorting intra-week.

 

[DalaiLuke]

Anyone shorting Google here??? I am now in with my 100 shares short. I will also day-trade this stock both long and short.

Take a look at the Fibonacci Retracement lines with Google... seems just above 300 was a VERY logical place for a turnaround given the significance of the 31.8 / 50 / 68.2 retracement lines.

This market looks prime to capitulate, and Google (especially with the plethora of bulls lately) seems to be an obvious way to play it.

Tomorrow's strategy: I'm still looking for a final bounce above 300, but I will day-trade to the short side if the stock falls below this week's support for more than 30-45 minutes. My strategy will be to enter 1/2 position @ market and the second 1/2 at a resistance trendline.

Thoughts????

 

[invexia]

Google: Arrow at the race end, in wave 4 or 5?

Excuse, this is one of my analysis in french.

URL edited out by Moderator

Google: Arrow at the race end, in wave 4 or 5?

· Attention with the correction with GOOGLE, which "activated" this rebound;

· Except GOOGLE, it would be obvious that AAPL, YHOO, AMZN, INTEL, AMD etc on NASDAQ, joined their major resistances, a correction seems not far... * To supervise the relation between STM, CGE, AF, IFG etc & CAC 40, to define the trading arranges with the CAC; as there does not remain a significant potential of fall to the STM, CGE, AF, ml, IFG..., their "limits" in bottom would limit the potential of correction to the CAC; * Strategy: To cumulate positions of shorts of 298 - 340 $ on GOOGLE, in order to speculate a correction for CT, of which the objective to the 270-240 $;

· Strategy: If GOOGLE/UBI returned in correction, shorts of NASDAQ/CAC40 with CT.


Actions NASDAQ GOOGLE: After a consolidation above 280 $, the action tried to touch 300 $, psychological resistance.

Although Swiss Credit First Boston (CSFB) raised its objective with 350$, but we will remain careful:

1. Since the departure (of its recent tendency hawser) with 172.57, GOOGLE recorded a profit of 73%; 2. 2 gaps were filled these 3 days: 293.75/297.1 and 277.61/278.02 $, we suspect that they would be gap exhaustion; although this title can cross 300$, to even touch 320/350$, they are always a danger spangle; 3. according to the ratio of Gann,

2. Obj 1 = 172.57 X 1.8 = 310.6 $
3. Obj 2 = 172.57 X 2 = 345.1 $ 310-345 are not interesting any more with a title which is worth approximately 300 $, that is to say a potential profit of 3-15%; it is not worth us to risk us for such "a pontentiel"; never let us forget the risk!
4. Thus our strategy of trading on GOOGLE:
- To cumulate positions of shorts between 298-345$;
- once that GOOGLE in "strong" fall, to open the position of shorts on YAHOO, AMAZON, EBAY, thus also shorts on NASDAQ. Actions EURONEXT UBI SOFTWARE Playing the same role as GOOGLE/NASDAQ,

- UBI SOFTWARE encouraged EURONEXT, with the head of the rise of actions SRD, with a profit from (38.8/24.46 -1) = 58%. Technically, UBI will change speed towards 39.4 € (19.69 X 2). Moreover, considering psychological resistance to 40€, it is not any more the sorrow to endanger to us at the foot of a wall! CAC 40 - Difficult to define the objective of rise (false?) - Difficult to define the "duration" of this rise (false?) - It would be to better judge them by supervising the correlation between CAC/NASDAQ & UBI SOFT/GOOGLE) Various APPLE: INTEL: AMD: But as there does not remain a significant potential of fall to the STM, CGE, AF, ml, IFG..., their "limits" (visible or "invisible") in bottom would limit the potential of correction to the CAC...

APPLE :

INTEL :

AMD :

Mais comme il ne reste pas un potentiel important de baisse aux STM, CGE, AF, ML, IFG …, leurs « limites » (visibles ou "invisibles") en bas limiterait le potentiel de correction au CAC ...


AF

IFG

MC WEEKLY

MC

STM

 

[tradesmart]

The mighty might fall.....

GOOG is plainly looking over-extended just now; the price hovering in space over three major gaps as shown on the daily chart attached – that looks like at least one gap too many to me…..

The 60min chart attached is showing three divergent peaks on RSI which hints at a reversal coming soon…..

I suspect that this stock could suddenly gap down $30+ to test $320 former resistance as support……

This could well create a bearish ‘island reversal’ setup on the charts promoting further falls….

I was quite taken by a recent analysts alternative valuation offering compelling reasons to value GOOG at $30/share…

It will fall a lot faster than it went up…….

 

[goog]

Agree, we could see a BIG down move, guess much of this rally cud be due to short covering, short intertest ratio is also creeping up.!

One low risk strategu cud be to do a Covered PUT, the option premiums are simply ridiculous
ie short at open at 360, than sell $350 Puts and also sell $380 calls

But come out totally of the stocks gets to 380

GOOG is plainly looking over-extended just now; the price hovering in space over three major gaps as shown on the daily chart attached – that looks like at least one gap too many to me…..

…….

 

[frugi]

GOOG rising wedge.

Dare one suggest starting to scale in short?

 

[rich64]

GOOG rising wedge.

Dare one suggest starting to scale in short?

Brave man!

Every day you look at GOOG and it screams overvalued/priced, dot.com boom&bust,must be a short etc etc.....BUT!..Google has created an almost entirely new business model which is still finding it's level.....you could well be right but I'll keeping well clear!!

 

[goog]

GOOG rising wedge.

Dare one suggest starting to scale in short?

well well well................................................
This stock will come down as fast as it went up!
First time i had my option related strategy bombed out! with a loss

Problem is you have a big short interest, so when people short and stock goes up, they have to buy it back! which than brings the momentum players and breakout player - who further increase the price.

Also divergence does not seem to work on this, guess the best way to trade this to trade on the EMA Xover, untill it settles down!

 

[tradesmart]

Short Squeeze......?

Yes, as goog sez, plainly a short squeeze at work here – when almost everyone’s short on a stock, just a few buyers can force the price up and blow the shorts ‘buy’ stops and higher it goes…..!

Even Bambi Francisco, the thinking internet investors crumpet, is having her doubts now……”How much is the downside risk for investors getting in at these levels..?”

Lots I would think….

Attached the daily chart with a neat little doji on top……one gap too many and all..

If and when GOOG falls big-time, I suspect it could have a very negative psychological effect on the tech market….

 

[badtrader]

Least resistance is up

 

[badtrader]

never to high to buy

 

[goog]

never to high to buy

Absolutely! - go with the trend! - have been going longs, and than using options as a hedge

Having said that The Short Interest is going has gone down!
so they have had to close their positions and take "massive" losses
or been stopped out!.

We should see a $60 drop in no time! - just wait for the short Interest to go down a bit further!!

 

[tradesmart]

GOOG - Whipped and Algo'd....?

All the best trading stocks are getting on the algorithmic band wagon, and GOOG's right up there just like you'd expect......

Themis Trading LLC, an agency broker for institutional money managers, today introduced the Themis Trading Whip Stock Report, identifying stocks that appear very liquid, but are experiencing high intraday price volatility as a likely result of increased algorithmic trading - a new form of electronic trading rapidly gaining popularity on Wall Street. High intraday volatility can result in wide price swings that can significantly affect trading profits or losses.

The first 10 Whip Stocks named are Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL), Broadcom Corp. (BRCM), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Google (GOOG), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM), and SanDisk Corp. (SNDK).

During the month of October 2005, these stocks had average daily volume of more than 6.9 million shares and low average daily closing price change of 0.51%, or $0.48 per share. However, average daily intraday price volatility was 3.34%, or $2.35 per share, more than four times higher than the average daily change in closing price. Average daily trade size was 252 shares. (See chart below.)

"While many well known factors, such as news, influence intraday volatility, we believe that the increased and somewhat excessive use of algorithmic trading is a new factor investors need to consider for these 10 stocks," Themis Trading LLC partner Joseph Saluzzi explained.
Brokerage firms are providing algorithmic or "algo" trading systems to institutional investor and hedge fund clients as an easy way to slice large block orders and then execute the resultant smaller trades on an automated basis throughout the day. With low commissions of $0.01 a share or less, growth has been significant, with some estimating that these systems now account for 25% of all equity trades.
"With their large volume and day-to-day price stability, Whip Stocks appear to be highly liquid and easy to trade electronically, which is why they are attracting algorithmic trading, as evidenced by their extremely low average daily trade size," Mr. Saluzzi said. "However, we believe that as all these algorithmic systems chase each other and the market, executions are being forced by the computers up and down the price ladder, creating a whip-like effect on prices throughout the day. There are also signs that day traders and other, predatory algorithmic systems have learned to track and take advantage of these movements, further exaggerating the whip effect."

For the uninitiated:-

algorithm

<algorithm, programming> A detailed sequence of actions to
perform to accomplish some task. Named after an Iranian
mathematician, Al-Khawarizmi.

Technically, an algorithm must reach a result after a finite
number of steps, thus ruling out brute force search methods
for certain problems, though some might claim that brute force
search was also a valid (generic) algorithm. The term is also
used loosely for any sequence of actions (which may or may not
terminate).

Looks like a 'top' on the chart, but I suspect there might be a 'rabid bull rocket ship' algorithm lurking in the electronic bushes, just waiting to take out all of those short stops at $400....!

(They hunt for liquidity you know.... )

 

[tradesmart]

Last throw of the dice.....?

Another bullish performance from GOOG today with a break above previous resistance @ $397.50ish; the Cyborg algo’s clearly programmed to fake initial weakness over the opening gap, and then surging to take out as many short stops as possible (cynical or what?). The day high was within a few cents of $399.00.

Is this the last throw of the dice for the bulls or is a surge above $400 in the sights…?

I suspect the latter as the Naz is showing strength and threatening a breakout above the years highs.

However, any comments bullish or bearish are mere speculation, and I’ll trade what I see….

But I’ll make no secret about it – I’d like to see this overpriced mutha tank…….

(About $100+ straight down would be nice….. )