Gold Wave Count - 2010-08

[snowrider]

I'll maintain my weekly posts in one thread for each month so that a thread won't be too long or too short. I am starting from this (2010-08) thread. For past long term view, please see:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/metals/99146-gold-wave-count.html

 

[snowrider]

Weekly

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

Daily

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

Legend

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [], [[C]]
Weekly – , [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], , [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

 

[snowrider]

It looks like the market decides to take the alternative wave count. No matter it is in the process of wave-b or wave-7, the primary direction of GC is south.

 

[snowrider]

It looks like the market decides to take the alternative wave count. No matter it is in the process of wave-b or wave-7, the primary direction of GC is south.

What does that mean to our trading? It means that we won't want to establish any long term long position because we anticipate gold is going south. Whether our count is the preferred one or the alternative one, it really does not matter! If the market takes wave-7, our short will make us quick money. If the market takes wave-b, we have better opportunity to accumulate more short in better price level.

 

[snowrider]

07/31/2010

07/31/2010

 

[xwzhang]

Re: 07/31/2010

07/31/2010

the downside momentum is weak for now.

 

[xyz456]

Nice chart , but when the 50-100$ moves come thake on a pampas or two .....
You will not be able to trade then I try out this 100 times and you never know when
this long moves come , that is the problem .....

better sleep than trade with real money

 

[snowrider]

08/02/2010

Comments are welcome.

 

[snowrider]

08/07/2010

Comments Are Welcome!

 

[snowrider]

Nice chart , but when the 50-100$ moves come thake on a pampas or two .....
You will not be able to trade then I try out this 100 times and you never know when
this long moves come , that is the problem .....

better sleep than trade with real money

If you are a Elliott Wave believer, welcome to join our discussion. If you use other methodology, feel free to share with us here.

 

[snowrider]

08/14/2010

Comments are welcome!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Let me clue you in on something, xyz. If you have the right methodology, there is not a market in the world you can't trade. Also in defense of you, Snowrider, in my opinion, one the most respected methods of trading around is the EW.
Pardon me for digressing, Snowrider, but a very valid refutation is needed. I don't trade gold, but it was predicted by me and a follower on my thread that the turning point for gold was going to be 1256. The peak was 1264. The reversal after the correction was predicted at 1156, which was spot on.
Snowrider, keep up the good work, and never listen to idle rhetoric of people who do not know what they are talking about. You're doing a great job xyz just had the thumb pointing the wrong way.

Nice chart , but when the 50-100$ moves come thake on a pampas or two .....
You will not be able to trade then I try out this 100 times and you never know when
this long moves come , that is the problem .....

better sleep than trade with real money

 

[snowrider]

...Pardon me for digressing, Snowrider, but a very valid refutation is needed. I don't trade gold, but it was predicted by me and a follower on my thread that the turning point for gold was going to be 1256. The peak was 1264. ...

Thank you 4x. Let's forget xyz and focus on our discussions. Yes, I don't rule out the possible bearish wave count of gold. Before 08/11, my preferred wave count was a bearish one, and it's based on the assumption that the long term bull ended in June.

I changed my preferrd wave count to a bullish one last weekend because the price action of these days' moving up seemed to me a wave-3 in a bull market or at least a complex wave-2 correction in a bear market. I reverted my position back to long, so my wave count was changed.

 

[snowrider]

08/21/2010

Comments are welcome!

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: 08/21/2010

Just my opnion, but I think the recent peak we had is going to stay in tact for awhile, so I think it will be your alternate count that will prevail. I actually have 1176 as about the lowest dip over the next couple of weeks, so it could be kind of tight.

Comments are welcome!

 

[snowrider]

Re: 08/21/2010

Just my opnion, but I think the recent peak we had is going to stay in tact for awhile, so I think it will be your alternate count that will prevail. I actually have 1176 as about the lowest dip over the next couple of weeks, so it could be kind of tight.

Maybe. I am still holding my long position. If it does go south, I'll reverse to short it.

 

[slight]

snowrider, as I've told you on FF already, I think we are up for new highs pretty soon .. couple of weeks if that. so stay long .. no reversing within a working uptrend :smart:

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: 08/21/2010

Snowrider, I'm sure you are excellent at what you do. I was sharing an opinion. I'm sure you're probably like me. No one moves you from your views. Personally, I think that is what we have to do. Be unmoveable.
Keep up the good work!

Maybe. I am still holding my long position. If it does go south, I'll reverse to short it.