Gold price rises, will it reach $3000?

[ChelseaR]

The price of gold is now around $2872, gold is moving more above $2800. Is it possible that gold can reach $3000 as predicted by Citigroup?
The People's Bank of China (PBOC), has expanded its gold reserves for the third month in a row, which has a positive impact on gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns about economic uncertainty. Gold reserves held by the People's Bank of China increased by 0.16 million troy ounces last month.

Moved down to $2869. I am eyeing Powell's testimony for fed clues.

 

[Simon54]

Moved down to $2869. I am eyeing Powell's testimony for fed clues.

it is at $2896. It seems possible to me that it can touch $3000 soon maybe by end of this month. Do you agree?

 

[gka]

I cannot understand why this price of gold discussion thread is in the forex forum. So I thought I would make the connection between forex and gold prices.

Anyone following my posts will have seen me describe the volatility response model for fx that relates candlesticks by a single mathematical function. So for any timescale (1 day, 2 day,...8 day and 1 week, 2 week,...8 week) the maths can take one step into the future. One of the outcomes is a long term trend channel (LTTC). I call the maths by the acronym "vrmfx" for short.

So I have now applied the same maths to spot gold prices and I attach the LTTC for this commodity over 100 weeks. The LTTC is shown top, middle and bottom by a green curve. For this week the top, middle and bottom are listed at the top of the chart. One of the properties of the LTTC is that for a bullish market the price is above the middle of the LTTC. And for a bearish market the price is below the middle of the LTTC. So from 16th October 2023 you could have happily sat on XAU-USD. You would have had to accept the rise and fall of the price. But from 16th October 2023 the price was always above the middle of the LTTC. The price of gold did test the middle of the LTTC from 11th Nov. 2024 through 30th Dec 2024 but in the end the support at the middle of the LTTC held.

At the moment gold is making new highs and the LTTC is chasing the gold price.

So to address the question of whether gold will make $3000 I think the real question is... will the price of gold remain above the middle of the LTTC which is currently 2639.93 USD. That is the price that gold could fall to 2639.93 USD and the market could still be long term bullish. So long as the market finds support on the middle of the LTTC then the market is long term bullish.

gka

 

[Zerologic]

I cannot understand why this price of gold discussion thread is in the forex forum. So I thought I would make the connection between forex and gold prices.

Anyone following my posts will have seen me describe the volatility response model for fx that relates candlesticks by a single mathematical function. So for any timescale (1 day, 2 day,...8 day and 1 week, 2 week,...8 week) the maths can take one step into the future. One of the outcomes is a long term trend channel (LTTC). I call the maths by the acronym "vrmfx" for short.

So I have now applied the same maths to spot gold prices and I attach the LTTC for this commodity over 100 weeks. The LTTC is shown top, middle and bottom by a green curve. For this week the top, middle and bottom are listed at the top of the chart. One of the properties of the LTTC is that for a bullish market the price is above the middle of the LTTC. And for a bearish market the price is below the middle of the LTTC. So from 16th October 2023 you could have happily sat on XAU-USD. You would have had to accept the rise and fall of the price. But from 16th October 2023 the price was always above the middle of the LTTC. The price of gold did test the middle of the LTTC from 11th Nov. 2024 through 30th Dec 2024 but in the end the support at the middle of the LTTC held.

At the moment gold is making new highs and the LTTC is chasing the gold price.

So to address the question of whether gold will make $3000 I think the real question is... will the price of gold remain above the middle of the LTTC which is currently 2639.93 USD. That is the price that gold could fall to 2639.93 USD and the market could still be long term bullish. So long as the market finds support on the middle of the LTTC then the market is long term bullish.

gka

Thank you for your analysis, what is your opinion, could gold reach $3000? Now gold already reached 2922 on the FXOpen platform.

 

[ChelseaR]

it is at $2896. It seems possible to me that it can touch $3000 soon maybe by end of this month. Do you agree?

Not this week, may be next week.

 

[GregR99]

Not this week, may be next week.

How'd you know?

 

[GregR99]

How are you so sure about this?

 

[Zerologic]

We're just following the flow, yesterday gold corrected after reaching an all time high of 2924, dropping to 2881 after Trump's new tariff policy was announced, but maybe that's only temporary.

 

[Simon54]

We're just following the flow, yesterday gold corrected after reaching an all time high of 2924, dropping to 2881 after Trump's new tariff policy was announced, but maybe that's only temporary.

It might be the case. Once he start imposing those tariffs Gold might surge again. Keeping an close eye on the market.

 

[ChelseaR]

How are you so sure about this?

I said 'maybe' next week. because it touched 2924, it may go higher.

 

[Zerologic]

I said 'maybe' next week. because it touched 2924, it may go higher.

Let's see, now gold is at 2907, and the potential to rise still appears to give hope.

 

[ChelseaR]

Let's see, now gold is at 2907, and the potential to rise still appears to give hope.

Yeah, it's still rising despite the peace talks

 

[Zerologic]

Yeah, it's still rising despite the peace talks

Perhaps gold's rise was triggered more by concerns that Trump's tariffs could encourage inflation.

 

[Xavier1]

Gold price has now reached $2706 extending the previous day's gains. It seems that positive gold sentiment amidst geopolitical risks and also hopes of the Fed cutting interest rates has further confirmed the unstoppable rise in gold prices. However, sometimes profit-taking can cause prices to rebound and this requires caution.

Giant global banks predict that gold will extend its price rise and break records again until 2025, supported by the rapid inflow of investor funds in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and additional cuts in interest rates by central banks around the world. Several of the world's top banks even project the price of the yellow metal to exceed US$3,000 next year.

Meanwhile, the action of buying up gold by the central bank is still significant in the London over-the-counter market, which could encourage a 66% increase in gold prices which is predicted to reach $2,900 in early 2025.

Gold's strong performance is impressive, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts. With global banks predicting further price increases, it seems gold could continue its upward trajectory. However, as always, caution is needed, especially with potential profit-taking and market corrections. The ongoing central bank activity and ETF investments could further support this bullish outlook. Keep an eye on any shifts in global economic factors that could influence gold's movement, as it may indeed surpass $3,000 in the near future.

 

[Zerologic]

Last Friday gold fell drawing a bearish long-body candle, but gold has set an all-time high record at 2939, perhaps the decline was due to profit-taking.

 

[MonicaGong]

back to 2900

 

[Zerologic]

Yesterday the gold price recovered to around 2900 but now in H1 the increase has faded somewhat, but the potential for gold can still rise because in a few days the dollar tends to be weaker.

 

[Zerologic]

In three days the price of gold drop more and drew a bearish candle, yesterday gold dropped to a low of 2867 and crossed the middle band line from the upside, Trump has confirmed the proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada on March 4, this seems to be the momentum for strengthening the US dollar at this moment.

 

[MonicaGong]

In three days the price of gold drop more and drew a bearish candle, yesterday gold dropped to a low of 2867 and crossed the middle band line from the upside, Trump has confirmed the proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada on March 4, this seems to be the momentum for strengthening the US dollar at this moment.

I noticed this too. From an all time high to this drop!

 

[Zerologic]

I noticed this too. From an all time high to this drop!

Even though it has dropped, the question remains whether the decline will continue. Now gold is correcting up in the price range of 2865, while the dollar index has been strengthening in recent days.