Right...
Done some more research on this swine flu stuff. My findings can be summarised thus:
1. Highly, highly contagious. One cough can infect 100s. I live in the West End, work in the City, and use public transport. In a decent epidemic I am practically guaranteed to get it.
2. Plenty of evidence mexican government is covering up true extent of it there
3. Mortality rate seems to be about 1 in 15 so far, and could easily get worse.
So, let's analyse at leaving London for a fortnight as though it were a trade.
Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.
Reward: Don't die. Also a fortnight in the country tends to be quite nice, especially where I will be heading.
Now as it happens, I already tend to look paranoid and silly. So basically I'll just miss out on a couple of week's income, and I can certainly earn plenty of cash by spread betting as a partial substitute... and I have piles of savings anyway... so aren't going to starve. So the risks aren't really risks at all.
But not dying is a huge reward.
I haven't decided yet, but is there any flaw in my analysis?