Genuinely thinking about leaving London for a couple of weeks

[arabianights]

Right...

Done some more research on this swine flu stuff. My findings can be summarised thus:

1. Highly, highly contagious. One cough can infect 100s. I live in the West End, work in the City, and use public transport. In a decent epidemic I am practically guaranteed to get it.
2. Plenty of evidence mexican government is covering up true extent of it there
3. Mortality rate seems to be about 1 in 15 so far, and could easily get worse.

So, let's analyse at leaving London for a fortnight as though it were a trade.

Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.
Reward: Don't die. Also a fortnight in the country tends to be quite nice, especially where I will be heading.

Now as it happens, I already tend to look paranoid and silly. So basically I'll just miss out on a couple of week's income, and I can certainly earn plenty of cash by spread betting as a partial substitute... and I have piles of savings anyway... so aren't going to starve. So the risks aren't really risks at all.

But not dying is a huge reward.

I haven't decided yet, but is there any flaw in my analysis?

 

[searchlight]

Right...

Done some more research on this swine flu stuff. My findings can be summarised thus:

1. Highly, highly contagious. One cough can infect 100s. I live in the West End, work in the City, and use public transport. In a decent epidemic I am practically guaranteed to get it.
2. Plenty of evidence mexican government is covering up true extent of it there
3. Mortality rate seems to be about 1 in 15 so far, and could easily get worse.

So, let's analyse at leaving London for a fortnight as though it were a trade.

Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.
Reward: Don't die. Also a fortnight in the country tends to be quite nice, especially where I will be heading.

Now as it happens, I already tend to look paranoid and silly. So basically I'll just miss out on a couple of week's income, and I can certainly earn plenty of cash by spread betting as a partial substitute... and I have piles of savings anyway... so aren't going to starve. So the risks aren't really risks at all.

But not dying is a huge reward.

I haven't decided yet, but is there any flaw in my analysis?

In a decent epidemic two weeks will be not enough time for protection. And how would you choose starting date for that two weeks. Unless you prepared to widen your time frame to ''as long as it takes'' , it will not serve the purpose you want. Dying still be on the cards.

 

[arabianights]

Of course, the two weeks is just time to see how things progress

As for the starting date, I happen to be heading out of London on Friday anyway - all I have to do is not come back.

 

[brutusdog]

Of course, the two weeks is just time to see how things progress

As for the starting date, I happen to be heading out of London on Friday anyway - all I have to do is not come back.

where you going? depending on remoteness supplies will be needed so buy a keg and call your dealer.

 

[searchlight]

Of course, the two weeks is just time to see how things progress

.

So, at least in theory your return date is open ended. Then it would make sense.

 

[arabianights]

I may take up smoking for a fortnight, actually - the main way this kills is your immune system flooding your lungs fighting the virus; thus smoking may save your life

 

[N Rothschild]

omg what a pansey, scared of a bit of flue! this is just the next SARS, remember that desease that wiped out the worlds population

 

[N Rothschild]

UK: 5 confirmed cases. **** me better get into the bunkers! can imagine now, every cretin around thinking they have swine flu when they have a cold

 

[arabianights]

There are big functional differences between this and SARS.

Anyway I agree the risk is small, but then writing naked deep OTM puts the risk is small...

 

[RedGreenBen]

Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.

You've forgotten some of the risks... the new risks that will replace your current 'high' (your analysis) risk of catching swine flu.

Escape London via the M3/A303 and one of those sections on the 303 where two lanes suddenly become one does not have a negligible risk to your life! A daft example, but you need to consider even these new risks when doing the cost/benefit.

It's like the American tourists who stayed at home during the first Gulf War, they were in a lot more danger in their own high-homicide rate cities than flying to Heathrow.

Ben

 

[elitejets]

omg what a pansey, scared of a bit of flue! this is just the next SARS, remember that desease that wiped out the worlds population

Actually the mortality rate for SARS was 9.6% across all ages so not the same as flu.

 

[N Rothschild]

im more referring to the similar hyped media bs as apposed to similarity between the diseases. ods of catching it must be ridicules, odds of dieing must be like getting hit by lighting while winning the lottery! id be much more worried about catching a real disease lol

 

[arabianights]

The reality, Dr. Genics, is we have very little idea, all we can say with certainty is this is how something genuinely nasty could easily appear.

RGB if I included those then it would be even better to leave London, in fact...

 

[N Rothschild]

flu is not that dangerous i hate to break it to you..

 

[MrGecko]

I don't think you're going to be able to get to any sensible decision - because on the "risk" side of your equation you have an intangible. If you could put a price on life then it would be far easier, in love and war, all over the place. But it doesn't matter 'cos you can't. Moreover, accepting both sides of the deal incurr opportunity costs; if you fancy a 2 week break, it's better to take it while Swine Flu is a threat than when it's not.

Of course, the rate of deaths is declining, which if you believe any of this second derivative cr@p, means we're in a bull market (!!!).

It may well be that the worst is over, in which case go now while you can add the utility of avoiding infection to the utility of going away, and settle off a bigger proportion of the opportunity costs. If we're all f*cked anyway, might as well live happy die young.

 

[arabianights]

Read your history books Dr!

Many more people died of the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918 than did in World War I - estimates go as high as 100 million people.

Now, it is unlikely that this is going to be as bad, and medical care is better now, but one thing that is obvious is that by the time we know it's going to be that bad it will be far, far too late...

 

[MrGecko]

Of course... summer is coming up, and liquidity will p!ss off to the farm house in the south of France for 2 months... "make hay while the sun shines"...

 

[N Rothschild]

still a 0.5-1% mortality rate. and the world is a different place now..i am seriously unconcerned

edited to add, sorry thats the fatality rate of the world population not the virus. 2.5-5% is the mortality rate for those infected

 

[Charlton]

Right...

Done some more research on this swine flu stuff. My findings can be summarised thus:

1. Highly, highly contagious. One cough can infect 100s. I live in the West End, work in the City, and use public transport. In a decent epidemic I am practically guaranteed to get it.
2. Plenty of evidence mexican government is covering up true extent of it there
3. Mortality rate seems to be about 1 in 15 so far, and could easily get worse.

So, let's analyse at leaving London for a fortnight as though it were a trade.

Risk: Lose out on a couple of weeks income. Also, in the most likely scenario look both paranoid and silly.
Reward: Don't die. Also a fortnight in the country tends to be quite nice, especially where I will be heading.

Now as it happens, I already tend to look paranoid and silly. So basically I'll just miss out on a couple of week's income, and I can certainly earn plenty of cash by spread betting as a partial substitute... and I have piles of savings anyway... so aren't going to starve. So the risks aren't really risks at all.

But not dying is a huge reward.

I haven't decided yet, but is there any flaw in my analysis?

I would have thought it would be better to wait. If you did catch it now you would get VIP treatment. Furthermore it seems that the anti-viral drugs are effective and you might benefit from gaining an immunity now.

If it were to escalate that might be the time to become isolationist. Furthermore at that time many companies might have in place plans for staff to work from home without loss of income.

If it doesn't escalate significantly then you can keep your holiday time for a more enjoyable time when all this blows over - perhaps 2 weeks on the beach at Cancun for example

Charlton

 

[donaldduke]

As wasp often likes to post:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EY7lYRneHc