GBPvsUSD

[Newtron Bomb]

Ive calmed down a bit now. Yes your right it has been choppy, but depending on the time frame you use that will always be the case in any market.

As regards the analysis it hasnt affected it because the chart does not know there is a figure due out. It depends how much faith you have in your analysis around key figure times, or any time for that matter.

Always have a plan B, I was long from early on in the move but i knew when i was going to exit at a profit or a loss. I am not day trading cable but I am trading with 15 min charts which takes care of some of the noise. I know what am going to do if certain circumstances happen.
I have a plan and i trade the plan. I amend the plan with new information form the chart

HTH

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Well it looks like my idea of a new channel being formed was correct, i just chose the wrong levels for it to form at.

The channel has broken and my corrected levels are now shown to be 66 points apart. I would suggest my error was looking too far back at support and resistance levels and not adjusting them sooner when new information presents itself. A lesson to be re-learned.

At the time i thought there was more in the move so a stop on all entries was paced at 1.6675 just behind a pause in the move up the low was made at 1.6669. Bummer, but money in the bank!

A move higher would give me a target of 1.6798 which is where i would like it to go, a bounce off support would be a nice entry as it most likely will coincide with support from 100ema (15 min chart) by that time i would also like to see it catching support from the trend line. In the immediate future i would expect it to continue to range especially in light of a long weekend in the US. A breakout in either direction gives reasonable targets and tight stops. The downside potential may be limited unless the trend support can be broken.... Lets see what happens! :cheesy:

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Well Blow Me!

GBP now trading 1.6500, 1.6675 seeming a better exit now, at the time i was a little annoyed because i thought that it was going a little higher....So much for opinions never trade them! always trade the plan, it stops you from going poor. Some good money in the bag this time so no harm done.

It did find support at the places i thought but it did not hold up, i think i'll wait to see what picture it paints before i do anything else.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Saw this little beauty

I saw this and thought of you :cheesy:

I though that anyone following cable might like to see how this plays out. It looks quite clearly like an ascending triangle, (I think we have gone past the point for a BO for an asymmetrical triangle using the trend line). Once scenario is that it would appear to be a mid move formation and will continue down with an initial target of nearly 130 points. The 100 ema is acting as good resistance again, on the 15 minute chart, and coinciding with the downtrend strengthens a down move at this point.

1.6050 is acting as strong support so, if a downside BO is expected, once this hurdle is jumped then then I think we can say see 1.60 in the short term as a strong psychological support, and with a bit of luck and fairy dust will continue on down.

For an upside move (I do have my bull hat on at the moment for cable, contrary to what the chart is saying lol) a BO above 1.6130 will give us a target near to its recent high of1.63.

The last time this scenario happen (not that long ago) it failed to make it safely to its upside target target and I wont take my eye of the ball and run a tighter trailing stop as I lost out on a few valuable points near the top of the move

The last option is that this can easily turn into a consolidation in which case we can reassess the BO points when/if this happens. 1.6130 still for an upside BO but the downside has two support bases at 1.6050 and 1.60. At least if the 1.6050 is broken I can nick some points down to 1.60 with a tight stop.

I have identified my opportunity and how I intend to trade it and I will reassess as new information arrives. I am overall bullish but am ready to flip that hat off... I'm not getting caught out this time lol, but for now I hope this has been informative. :cheesy:

 

[Newtron Bomb]

GBP/USD trade update

The direction of BO is in my preferred direction and i am long from 1.6125 in anticipation of the BO. At the time of writing resistance has turned in to support, for now anyway.

A few concerns would be that RSI and CCI are at extremely high levels which it has not seen in quite some time. To be fair I do not pay much attention to these indicators when trading cable, but a false BO could be suggested from this extreme so a tight stop has been enforced to just above the 100 ema @1.6110. If this trade plays out it gives me a good R/R of 13:1 :cheesy:

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Stopped for -10 right on trend and ema support too... still fancy it long at the moment so if this support holds i will be looking to re-enter at the same level.

At least my thoughts on a false BO were correct for the moment. 1.61 holding for now.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Long again @ 1.6125 after the spike down was made, trend showing good support along with the 100ema
Stop @ 1.6110

 

[Newtron Bomb]

oh well second bite of the cherry. Looks like its consolodating maybe a smaller move BO later. Will post another chart maybe later.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Well what can i say? It turned out to be a load of tripe!

Looks like its range bound now between 1.6080 and 1.6140 give or take a few points either side. Gives me a good range to try and trade and a pretty reasonable target for BO.... am just not in the zone with cable ATM keep yor fingers crossed for me

 

[genti]

bomb i better run way quick because you might expload.

which firm do u use to trade currencyes please?

 

[Newtron Bomb]

...Tick...Tick...Tick..BOOM!

Using cmc for my currencies just for simplicity to save having a broker, SB, and forex a/c with separate people... they are really hacking me off lately with mistaken orders and not being filled at all, hopefully they will have pulled their finger out now the bombs fuse is lit

 

[Newtron Bomb]

After a strong rally up last night i finally got my 1.6125 entry after crossing back over the 100ema trading @ 1.6178 as i write this so ive moved my stop up to entry and given myself a target area @ 1.6220

 

[BigInTheCity]

Im short at 1.6180

 

[Newtron Bomb]

nice reaction off 1.6180 for your short... what time frame are you looking at? Am looking at 15 min charts looking for reasonable sized moves over 3/5 days

 

[BigInTheCity]

Hi mate, im an elliottwave man so im looking for sub 1.6 levels to take profits

 

[Newtron Bomb]

sound m8, always found it interesting to know some one with an oposite position & opinion... its kind of funny

Does the time frame not affect the wave count you ar looking for?

 

[BigInTheCity]

Well i look at different timescales to count subwaves.

If my count is correct we cant go above the high of wave 4 which is 1.6309, my stop is therefore slightly above that.

I trade slightly longer term as you can imagine as ive currently got a 140pip stop.

Ive tried to attach a chart.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Interesting, i still think there is a bit more up, maybe up to 1.6250 but not much past if it gets there.

For the short sell am not quite convinced to sell short yet its more a gut feeling than anything, even though there is some good evidence on the chart. EMA pretty flat for a few days now so i'd like to see a more positive move away from it. It is however starting to trend up but there is resistance at these levels so i should expect the ema to flatten out again before it starts to move in either direction

Trend resistance, ATM, is at the 1.62 level and i think i fall below 1.6120 this time around will signal a sell as the divergence in CCI and RSI kicks in.

happy trading

 

[BigInTheCity]

O yes its a possibility we could still go higher, subwave C might not have completed yet so wave 2 might not have completed.

These short term fluctuatios dont bother me really as i trade longer term, my stop is at 1.6320.

Good luck mate

 

[Newtron Bomb]

You definitely are looking for the bigger move sounds like your expecting a collapse of the pound almost... as long as we make money along the way i dont really mind which way it goes


Happy trading